NHL Odds, Betting Insights, & Picks For December 23

In this article, I’ll outline the most noteworthy NHL odds, news, and betting insights from the marquee games of Tuesday’s 13-game NHL slate, and I’ll also offer up my best pick of the night.

Pick—Pittsburgh Penguins vs Toronto Maple Leafs: Penguins Moneyline +125

The Maple Leafs will return home after what was a downright pathetic three-game road trip, in which they lost all three games in regulation by a combined margin of 14-4.

It is possible that a group of proud professionals will be at their most urgent on home ice in this matchup, after looking pretty checked out over the last three games. It’s also seemingly possible that this group is no longer interested in what head coach Craig Berube has to say and has lost the belief that his style of play is the right way to proceed. Considering the +125 for Pittsburgh to win this game, it seems worth taking a shot that the latter is true.

It seems a large portion of Toronto’s massive media presence is most keen to rag on the players for their lethargic effort, and defending Berube by stating how many coaches the team has had during the Auston Matthews era. While this group has failed previously, it has become extremely clear that Berube’s tactical approach is simply not working, and it’s hard to believe that simply trying harder and showing more heart would actually resolve the Leafs’ issues.

All season long Toronto has been outchanced and outscored. They hold the second-worst goal differential in the Eastern Conference, the second-worst points percentage, and the second-worst expected goal share. The depth of the roster both up front and on the blue line with Chris Tanev injured would likely be a concern under any coach, but it does seem pretty fair at this point to draw the conclusion that Berube does not have the answers and is worthy of some blame.

By no means are the Penguins the most formidable opponent, as they have struggled to a record of 2-4-4 over their last 10 games. Still, the Penguins’ overall level of play has not been horrible recently, and their process has been marred by some borderline unfathomable collapses late in games, and though that is a large concern, it’s a more negotiable issue than being a team that plays a style where it almost never carries much of the play.

In the month of December, the Penguins rank 10th in expected goal share. There’s certainly an art to winning games and the Penguins have not looked adept at it, but Dan Muse’s side may not look like an underdog for the majority of this contest.

At +125, I’m happy to back the Penguins extending the Leafs’ skid to four games in this matchup and buying into the possibility that this game is the one that brings on some meaningful changes for a Leafs side that appears to be in desperate need of them.

Dallas Stars @ Detroit Red Wings

Stars moneyline odds	-130
Red Wings moneyline odds	+110
Game total	Over 6 goals (-110), Under 6 (-110)
Time	6:37 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• Some Leafs bloggers noted that the team actually didn’t look too horrible versus the Stars, despite the 5-1 result. What those Eastern-based accounts seem to be forgetting is that generally seems to be the case for many opponents facing Dallas; things don’t look too bad until you look up and the game is out of reach.
• Dallas ranks 27th in expected goal share in the month of December. While I believe there is more to hockey than public models quantify, the data is still a more effective indicator than simply looking at a team’s record, with the last 10 Stanley Cup winners averaging close to seventh place in expected goal share over the entirety of the year.
• Oddsmakers’ models are certainly low on the Stars relative to their record, which is likely part of the reason this game is priced more evenly than most would expect considering Dallas’s record.
• The Wings won both legs of their weekend home-and-home with the Washington Capitals. While they were outplayed in Sunday’s matchup, what impressed me was how few legitimate scoring chances they allowed despite clearly having less jump than their opponent. Detroit’s defensive play has come a long way since Todd McLellan took over at this time last year, and it’s a key reason it looks likely to snap a lengthy playoff drought.

Buffalo Sabres @ Ottawa Senators

Sabres moneyline odds	+125
Senators moneyline odds	-150
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (+110), Under 6.5 (-130)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• The signs were there for a bit that the Sabres might actually be playing better than was credited, and it’s interesting for me to think about how foolish I felt to write an article on December 8th that the Sabres would win on the road in Calgary. Since that game, they’ve fired off six straight wins, making me feel like quite a fool for betting on them in zero of those games.
• Since Rasmus Dahlin returned to the lineup on November 15th, Buffalo is 12-6-0 and holds an expected goal share of 53.33%. As we have discussed, key skaters such as Zach Benson and Josh Norris have also returned in solid form in that span, and it feels that because of how pathetic Buffalo has generally been in recent years not many observers noted how depleted the team’s roster was earlier on in the season.
• Ottawa has also been in strong form, though, entering this matchup on a four-game winning streak in which it has outscored opponents 19-8.
• Brady Tkachuk enters in the midst of a five-game point streak, combining for five goals and two assists.
• The Senators have also been aided by the returns of key blue-liners Thomas Chabot and Artem Zub. Shane Pinto remains on the IR.
• Linus Ullmark has gotten into a much better spell of play, sporting a .912 save percentage and 2.16 GAA over his last seven appearances.
• The Sabres won the lone meeting of the season between these Atlantic Division rivals, 8-4, in Buffalo on October 15th.

Florida Panthers @ Carolina Hurricanes

Panthers moneyline odds	+125
Hurricanes moneyline odds	-150
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-130), Under 5.5 (+115)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• The Panthers authored an incredible comeback over the Hurricanes on Friday evening, scoring three times in the final 10 minutes of regulation before taking it via the shootout.
• There could be a little added heat to this game as Seth Jarvis suffered a lower-body injury after being tripped by Evan Rodrigues in the three-on-three period of Friday’s game, though a forward attempting to defend a one-on-one and accidentally tripping the opponent certainly didn’t seem malicious, although it was without question a missed penalty call.
• In what was just his third game back after a lengthy absence, Hurricanes’ top defender Jaccob Slavin was also injured in Friday’s matchup and will miss this game.
• Nikolaj Ehlers, Sebastian Aho, and Jackson Blake skated together on the top line at Monday’s practice, while Andrei Svechnikov, Jordan Staal and Logan Stankoven formed a new-look second line. Blake would be my preferred target from a prop perspective based on the adjusted units, as the sophomore has looked threatening of late and has some qualities similar to Jarvis.

Montreal Canadiens @ Boston Bruins

Canadiens moneyline odds	+100
Bruins moneyline odds	-120
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-125), Under 5.5 (+105)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• Another interesting rivalry matchup on this excellent 13-game slate, as the two sides sit just two points apart in the tightly packed Atlantic Division. The Bruins won the first matchup of the season, 3-2, in Montreal on November 16th.
• The Bruins are 1-2-1 so far on their homestand, which will conclude with this matchup. We have talked a lot about oddsmakers’ disbelief in the legitimacy of the Bruins, and entering this matchup, they are still priced at +310 to make the playoffs. If you are a believer in the Bruins, there is certainly a good enough price to bet into that belief.
• Jacob Fowler is expected to start in goal after recording a shutout on home ice Saturday versus the Canadiens. Fowler holds a .915 save percentage and a 2.49 GAA in his first four NHL appearances.
• The Canadiens are 9-3-1 on the road this season.

New Jersey Devils @ New York Islanders

Devils moneyline odds	-120
Flyers moneyline odds	+100
Game total	Over 6 goals (-105), Under 6 (-115)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• Jack Hughes returned to the Devils lineup on Sunday, recording a goal and two shots in a 3-1 loss to the Sabres.
• Timo Meier also returned to the lineup in Sunday’s matchup after missing five games for personal reasons.
• The Islanders enter this matchup in the midst of a three-game losing skid and are 10-7-2 at home this season.
• The Islanders are expected to be without Bo Horvat and Ilya Sorokin. Horvat leads the team with 19 goals, while Sorokin had put himself in the Vezina conversation with a tremendous level of play over the last two months.
• David Rittich has had a surprisingly strong campaign, playing to a +9.6 GSAx and a .908 save percentage in 12 games played.

Nashville Predators @ Minnesota Wild

Predators moneyline odds	+165
Wild moneyline odds	–200
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-135), Under 5.5 (+115)
Time	8:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• The Wild lost their first game since acquiring Quinn Hughes on Sunday, though it came in the second leg of a back-to-back versus the Colorado Avalanche. Hughes has put up three points in five games since being acquired, but his level of play has been more impressive than that number suggests.
• The Predators are 7-3-0 over the last 10 games and are only five points back of the Utah Mammoth for the final Wild Card spot with three games in hand. Nashville is just 5-7-2 on the road this season, but is 4-2-0 on the road over the last six games.
• The Wild are now essentially at full-health with just Daemon Hunt and Zach Bogosian on the IR, both of whom won’t be everyday skaters for the team anyways. Ryan Hartman skated as the team’s top centre alongside Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello in Sunday’s matchup.

Calgary Flames @ Edmonton Oilers

Flames moneyline odds	+155
Oilers moneyline odds	-185
Game total	Over 6 goals (-115), Under 6 (-105)
Time	9:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• This matchup will be the second meeting of the season between these rivals. The Flames won 4-3 in overtime on Opening Night after closing a 3-0 deficit.
• Connor McDavid has overtaken the league scoring lead after recording 26 points over his last 11 games played. In the same span, Leon Draisaitl has put up 21 points in 11 games.
• The Flames are 6-3-1 over the last 10 games, which has also put them loosely in the race for the final playoff spot out West (five points back of Utah).
• Jack Roslovic returned to the Oilers lineup in Sunday’s matchup versus the Vegas Golden Knights. It was the first Oilers game this season in which Roslovic, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid, and Leon Draisaitl had all played in the same game. Roslovic skated alongside Vasily Podkolzin and Draisaitl on the second line, which I’d bet will be the combination come Game 1 of the playoffs if all key Oilers skaters remain healthy.
• It’s unclear whether it will be Calvin Pickard or Connor Ingram starting in goal for the Oilers in this matchup. Ingram stopped 28 of 31 shots faced in his Oilers debut versus Vegas, earning a win. Though his AHL numbers are not good, it could make sense to give Ingram a little more run and see what they have as opposed to Pickard, who’s struggled at the NHL level for two straight seasons.