NHL Odds, Betting Insights, & Picks For December 16

In this article, I’ll outline the most noteworthy NHL odds, news, and betting insights from the marquee matchups of Tuesday’s five-game NHL slate, and I’ll also offer up my best pick of the night.

Pick—Anaheim Ducks vs Columbus Blue Jackets: Blue Jackets Regulation Win +110

The Columbus Blue Jackets will look to snap a five-game losing skid Tuesday when they host the high-flying Anaheim Ducks, who are tied for the Pacific Division lead with a record of 20-12-1.

Considering the disparity in success between these two sides, it might look pretty surprising to many bettors to see that the Blue Jackets are fairly heavy favourites, but this is a highly favourable spot for a rested home side desperate to snap a five-game losing skid.

The Ducks will be playing for the third time in four nights Tuesday, while the Blue Jackets have been off since a frustrating loss to the Vegas Golden Knights on home ice Saturday. The Ducks also started Lukas Dostal in Monday night’s game, so it will be Ville Husso starting Tuesday.

While Husso has been solid so far this season in a small sample, he was a well below average option last season, while Dostal’s brilliance has gone a long way to covering up the Ducks’ shaky defensive play this season.

The Blue Jackets also appear to be a slightly better side than their record suggests, playing out of a Metropolitan Division that looks to be arguably the deepest division in the NHL. Over the last 20 games, the Blue Jackets have played to a 50.41% expected goal share and are currently as healthy as they have been all season, with only Mathieu Olivier and Erik Gudbranson on the IR.

The Blue Jackets have also confirmed that Jet Greaves will get the start in goal. Greaves holds a .906 save percentage and a +13.5 GSAx rating in 20 appearances this season.

Chicago Blackhawks @ Toronto Maple Leafs

Blackhawks moneyline odds	+165
Maple Leafs moneyline odds	–200
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-120), Under 5.5 (+100)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• This game’s low total of 5.5 is partially due to the absence of Connor Bedard from Chicago’s lineup. Bedard has put up 44 points in 31 games this season, while Tyler Bertuzzi ranks second with 26 points.
• Frank Nazar will centre Chicago’s top line alongside Bertuzzi and Andre Burakovsky.
• Nick Lardis will likely remain in Bedard’s role on the top power-play unit after taking Bedard’s place in his season debut on Saturday. Lardis has put up 26 points in 24 AHL games this season.
• Head coach Craig Berube has elevated William Nylander back onto the top line alongside Matthew Knies and Auston Matthews.
• Joseph Woll has been confirmed as Toronto’s starting goaltender and will make his first start since December 4th. Woll has been excellent this season with a +5.5 GSAx and .924 save percentage in eight appearances, though it is worth noting that Dennis Hildeby did not offer lesser play than Woll during his absence.

Philadelphia Flyers @ Montreal Canadiens

Flyers moneyline odds	+105
Canadiens moneyline odds	-125
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-120), Under 5.5 (+100)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• The Flyers opened at +115, but have seemingly been a popular target from sharper bettors, as they are now priced at +105. Philadelphia has lost three straight games, but all three games ended past regulation and were against high-quality opponents, being the Vegas Golden Knights and Carolina Hurricanes (twice).
• Jacob Fowler has been confirmed as the Canadiens’ starting goaltender, which may have also contributed to the line movement, though I’m not sold Samuel Montembeault is actually a better option right now. Fowler made a strong NHL debut on Thursday versus the Pittsburgh Penguins, but allowed five goals on 29 shots Saturday versus the New York Rangers.
• The Canadiens are 8-8-1 on home ice compared to a mark of 9-3-3 on the road this season.
• The Flyers have confirmed that Dan Vladar will start in goal, which is significant as the gap between Vladar and backup Samuel Ersson will likely be quite notable all season. Vladar holds a .908 save percentage and a +12.6 GSAx rating in 19 appearances this season and is arguably the greatest reason for the Flyers’ year-over-year improvement.

Vancouver Canucks @ New York Rangers

Canucks moneyline odds	+105
Rangers moneyline odds	-125
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-120), Under 5.5 (+100)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• The Canucks will play their second game since trading away franchise player Quinn Hughes. Vancouver beat the Devils 2-1 Sunday in its first game without Hughes, and newcomer Zeev Buium recorded a goal and an assist and was named the second star of the game.
• It would be absurd to say the Canucks are a better team now than they were prior to the Hughes trade, but the Hughes situation had obviously become a distraction, and they did get two useful NHLers back in the trade, including a guy who’s now overtaken the critical role as top-line centre for the time being with Elias Pettersson injured in Marco Rossi. Rossi has put up strong underlying results over the last two seasons, and the Canucks were in desperate need of another centre.
• Thatcher Demko will make his second start since returning from injury on December 11th. Demko stopped 25 of 26 shots faced on Sunday and was named the game’s first star. He holds a 2.67 GAA and a .903 save percentage in 12 appearances this season.
• Mika Zibanejad is expected to return to the Rangers lineup after being made a healthy scratch in Monday’s matchup for missing a team meeting.
• Jonathan Quick is expected to start in goal for the Rangers as Igor Shesterkin started the first leg of the back-to-back. Quick has been tremendous this season with a .937 save percentage and 1.86 GAA in seven appearances.

Edmonton Oilers @ Pittsburgh Penguins

Oilers moneyline odds	-140
Penguins moneyline odds	+120
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (-110), Under 6.5 (-110)
Time	7:37 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• This is the most interesting matchup on the slate, as goaltenders Tristan Jarry and Stuart Skinner will face off against their former sides after being traded for each other last Friday. Jarry stopped 25 of 28 shots faced in his Oilers debut on Saturday and recorded a win, while Skinner will be making his Penguins debut.
• Jarry has been the superior goaltender this season with a +10.9 GSAx rating and a .908 save percentage in 15 appearances. For that reason there is a clear argument that he is an upgrade, but goaltending is highly volatile and Skinner has outperformed Jarry over the previous two seasons.
• On top of the interesting goaltending angle, Connor McDavid faces off against Sidney Crosby. McDavid has produced effectively versus the Penguins historically, with 31 points in 16 career matchups.
• McDavid has been on fire of late with 16 points in seven games since the start of December. He’s priced at -110 to record two points in this matchup.

Washington Capitals @ Minnesota Wild

Capitals moneyline odds	-105
Wild moneyline odds	-115
Game total	Over 6 goals (-110), Under 6 (-110)
Time	8:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• Charlie Lindgren has been confirmed as the Capitals’ starting goaltender. While Lindgren offers a dropoff from Logan Thompson, he is a better-than-average backup, a point that I was keen to note earlier in the season when his surface-level stats were poor because he soaked up all seven goals in a matchup in which the Capitals were downright horrific without having enough sample size to lessen the blow. Over his last five games played, Lindgren holds a .912 save percentage.
• Quinn Hughes will make his second appearance with the Wild after recording a goal in his debut with the team in Sunday’s 6-2 win over the Boston Bruins.
• While the Wild are 7-2-1 over the last 10 games and just brought in one of the best skaters in the entire league, their offensive core does still look quite unconvincing relative to other Cup contenders, at least with Mats Zuccarello and Marcus Johansson sidelined for this matchup.
• The Wild will also be without defensive stalwart Jonas Brodin, who already holds a +11.6 expected goals above replacement rating this season based largely upon his incredible defensive play.

Calgary Flames @ Los Angeles Kings

Flames moneyline odds	-140
Sharks moneyline odds	+120
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-120), Under 5.5 (+100)
Time	10:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• I’ve been eager to run a deep dive into how NHL teams fare relative to betting odds when they are on their dads/mentors road trips, as it does seem like those teams do tend to elevate their level of play. In the first game of their dads trip, the Flames earned a 2-1 overtime win in Los Angeles on Saturday, outshooting the Kings 38-22. This game will conclude the trip.
• I’m proud of the futures articles I’ve written this season for Daily Faceoff and CSB, as it appears quite likely the totality of the work will be profitable from a betting perspective. However my recommendation to bet the Flames finishing dead last is certainly an embarrassing one, as they are now 7-3-1 over the last 11 games.
• For as horrific as much of this season has felt in Calgary, the Flames are only five points back of the Sharks for the final Wild Card spot entering this matchup.
• San Jose will be without Will Smith in this matchup after he was injured on Sunday in Pittsburgh. Smith ranks second on the team with 29 points in 33 games this season. Alex Wennberg will likely overtake Smith’s role on the top line.

Colorado Avalanche @ Seattle Kraken

Avalanche moneyline odds	-305
Kraken moneyline odds	+245
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-135), Under 5.5 (+115)
Time	10:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• It seems that on a nightly basis the Avalanche are the biggest favourites on the board, so it’s no surprise to see they are massive -305 favourites in Tuesday’s matchup versus the Kraken. The Avalanche hold the highest goal-per-game average in the NHL this season, and also hold the best goals against average.
• Colorado’s second line of Valeri Nichushkin, Gabriel Landeskog, and Brock Nelson has been highly effective of late, and is one reason the team is so greatly improved relative to last season.
• Nichushkin recorded a career-high eight shots on goal in Saturday’s matchup versus the Nashville Predators, finally breaking through with an empty-netter on his final shot of the game. Given the other elite skaters atop Colorado’s lineup, it’s easy to forget how dominant ‘Big Val’ is when he’s at his best. He is priced at +155 to record three shots on goal in this matchup.
• The Kraken are 2-7-1 over the last 10 games and hold a league-worst 40.64% expected goal share in that span.