NHL Odds, Betting Notes, & Picks For Nov. 7

In this article, I’ll outline the most noteworthy odds, news, and betting notes from Friday’s four-game NHL slate, and I’ll also offer up my best bet.

Best bet-Wild moneyline: +130

The Minnesota Wild will be in a tough spot Friday, as they will be playing their third game in four nights and the second leg of a travelling back-to-back. They have been overvalued this season by online sportsbooks, as at 5-10 straight up, betting them in each game would yield a shocking -37.3% ROI.

While the Wild’s overall underperformance and poor situational spot do make them an unappealing bet, a price of +130 versus an unconvincing New York Islanders side provides a good opportunity to buy low on Minnesota.

The Wild have played to a record of 2-2-1 over the last five games, with close 4-3 losses versus a pair of elite teams in the Carolina Hurricanes and Winnipeg Jets. They hold a 51.25% expected goal share in that span, but have scored on just 7.51% of shots on goal at even strength. 

Though Minnesota’s play has been far from flawless, it still features a deep, highly mobile defensive core capable of transitioning the puck effectively to a talented top six. Marco Rossi and Joel Eriksson Ek provides the team a strong one-two punch down the middle, and both benefit from playing with one high quality winger in Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy.

Jesper Wallstedt has struggled to an .863 save percentage and 3.46 GAA, howeve,r looking at it on a game-by-game basis, he has performed well in two of his three starts, and his tremendous work prior to entering the NHL suggests he has the potential to be an effective backup this season. 

Meanwhile, the Islanders will start veteran backup David Rittich, who achieved well below average results last season in a large sample of work with the Los Angeles Kings, but has had a surprisingly solid start this year.

Like the Wild, the Islanders have played to a record of 2-2-1 over their last five matchups, however, they hold a -5 goal differential and a 49.32% expected goal share. While they have started the season in better form than the Wild, their roster was expected to play to lesser results, and the eye-test doesn’t suggest that they really appear to be much better.

I’m not sold that Rittich will actually outperform Wallstedt that significantly this season, and the Wild should be able to carry a respectable amount of play in this matchup relative to their long price of +130. It’s an ugly bet, but the Wild look to provide value Friday because of their price tag.

Minnesota Wild vs. New York Islanders

Wild moneyline odds	+130
Islanders moneyline odds	-155
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (-115), Under 6.5 (-105)
Time	7 p.m. ET

• The Wild will be playing back-to-back after suffering a 4-3 loss last night in Carolina. Filip Gustavsson started last night’s game, so Jesper Wallstedt is expected to play Friday. Wallstedt has struggled at the NHL level, but was considered to be one of the top goaltending prospects in the game entering the league.
• Matthew Schaefer’s brilliance has been the greatest reason the Islanders have outperformed their preseason expectations. With 11 points in 13 games, Schaefer is the betting favourite to win the Calder Trophy (+105).
• Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy have combined for 34 points in 15 games this season. They have been separated at even strength recently, but play key roles on the Wild’s highly effective top power-play unit.

New York Rangers vs. Detroit Red Wings

Rangers moneyline odds	-110
Red Wings moneyline odds	-110
Game total	Over 6 goals (+100), Under 6 goals (-120)
Time	7 p.m. ET

• Though they are just 6-6-2, oddsmakers have been reluctant to downgrade the Rangers’ power-rating due to their strong analytical profile. Oddsmakers have more complicated models than those the public is able to access, but EvolvingHockey’s model ranks the Rangers sixth in expected goal share this season.
• The Rangers hold bizarre reverse splits entering this matchup. They are 6-1-1 on the road, and 0-5-1 on home ice. 
• The Red Wings have been off since completing a five-game Western road trip on Tuesday evening. They are 5-1-0 on home ice this season.
• The Rangers have not yet named a starter, and it is likely that they will go with backup Jonathan Quick in this matchup and save Igor Shesterkin for tomorrow’s date with the rival Islanders. Quick holds a 1.35 GAA and .941 save percentage this season.
• The Red Wings have zero players on the IR, while the Rangers are without Vincent Trocheck, Matt Rempe, and Urho Vaakanainen.

Chicago Blackhawks vs. Calgary Flames

Blackhawks moneyline odds	+130
Flames moneyline odds	-155
Game total	Over 6 goals (-110), Under 6 (-110)
Time	9 p.m. ET

• After they earned another win as heavy underdogs Wednesday in Vancouver, betting the Blackhawks in every game this season would have yielded a +10.9% ROI to bettors. Goaltender Spencer Knight has been excellent, while the Blackhawks’ young defensive core has been quite solid.
• Connor Bedard leads all Blackhawks skaters with 18 points in the first 14 games of the season.
• The Flames enter this matchup having won two consecutive games for the first time this season. 
• Connor Zary and Joel Farabee are expected to remain on Calgary’s top line alongside Nazem Kadri.
• Chicago has not yet confirmed whether or not Knight will start in goal, which is important from a handicapping perspective.

Winnipeg Jets vs. San Jose Sharks

Jets moneyline odds	-200
Sharks moneyline odds	+165
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (+100), Under 6.5 (-120)
Time	10 p.m. ET

• Bet365 is offering a boost on Mark Scheifele and Macklin Celebrini to each record one point (in most regions) at +175 odds. Though bettors are always frustrated when these boosts miss (which tonight’s is implied to do 51% of the time), they are usually plus EV, and as a general rule are worth playing, though the limits tend to be quite low for most users.
• The Sharks are in a strong run of play, as they are 3-0-1 over their last four games, with wins over the New Jersey Devils, Colorado Avalanche and the Seattle Kraken. Based on powerrankingsguru.com, the Sharks have played the toughest schedule in the NHL to this point.
• Celebrini is tied for the league lead with 21 points, while Scheifele is tied for fourth with 20 points.