NHL Best Player Prop Bets (November 24)

Join Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop bets available from Monday’s seven-game slate.

Best Bet-Ryan Leonard over 2.5 shots on goal: +150; to score: +440

Leonard joined the Washington Capitals late last season amid a ton of hype, after recording 30 goals and 49 points in 37 games with Boston College (NCAA D1). To some extent Leonard’s NHL career has been disappointing thus far, but the general take from Capitals observers and the fanbase has been that he has been deserving of greater usage this season.

Leonard has shown flashes of brilliance offensively this season, but consistency has been an issue, as if often the case for young skaters learning the game at the NHL level. Leonard’s expected role in tonight’s matchup versus the Columbus Blue Jackets looks appealing from a prop betting perspective, however, and though the counting stats have not exactly been there recently, he’s looked quite threatening.

Leonard is expected to skate on the third line alongside Connor McMichael and Brandon Duhaime, a unit which has been tilting the ice quite heavily since being united last week. In a small sample of 18.9 minutes, McMichael, Duhaime, and Leonard have generated 5.07 xGF/60 and 3.17 goals per 60 where it counts.

Leonard is expected to skate on the team’s “top” power-play unit in Monday’s matchup, though head coach Spencer Carbery stated that both units would receive equal usage. That’s significant for both of these props, as Leonard has generated 15.03 shots on goal per 60 on the power play this season, as well as 23.39 shot attempts per 60, but he’s not typically received much usage on the power play.

Leonard also ranks second among all Capitals skaters in shots on goal per 60 this season, so any potential bumps in usage are significant. He possesses a good shot and has looked strong offensively, which makes me believe this is a good time to buy-low on the talented 20-year-old.

The Blue Jackets present a very livable matchup for Leonard to get some scoring opportunities as well, as they have allowed 3.34 xGA/60 in 12 games this November and were generally not expected to be an overly strong side defensively this season.

Best bet-Roman Josi over 2.5 shots on goal: +105

Alongside being the best team period, the Colorado Avalanche have also been, without question, the best defensive team in the NHL this season, allowing only 2.62 xGF/60 and 24.82 shots against per 60. In his first game back following a month-long absence, Josi recorded four shots on goal from eight attempts on Saturday versus the Avalanche and skated 19:40.

While it can be foolish to buy into a one-game sample size when handicapping, the flip side of that is that a few more performances like we saw from Josi on Saturday, and the price for him to record over 2.5 shots on goal is going to plummet, and to think from a broader perspective, the price for Josi to record three shots on goal has typically been drastically worse than +105 over the last three seasons.

Part of the reason for this price obviously comes down to the fact that the Florida Panthers are an elite defensive team, but while playing without numerous NHL regulars, they have allowed 28.25 shots against per 60 and 3.34 xGA/60 over the last 10 games.

It’s a safe bet to expect Josi to skate more than 19 minutes in Monday’s matchup if the game is somewhat close as well, and Saturday’s lesser usage surely had much to do with the fact that it was the Nashville Predators captain’s first game back.

Based on his career shot volume and solid performance in his first game back in the lineup, a price of +105 for Josi to record three shots on Monday versus a Panthers side that has looked much more mortal this season appears to be a good bet.

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