Join Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop bets available from Thursday’s 12-game slate.
Best Bet—Jordan Kyrou To Score: +230
Jordan Kyrou to score vs. Flyers
We targeted Kyrou to record over 2.5 shots on goal at +105 in Tuesday’s matchup versus the Toronto Maple Leafs, and the dynamic winger recorded six shots on goal from 12 attempts and stood out offensively all night long. He’s once again priced at +105 to record three shots on goal in a more difficult matchup Thursday evening, but I’m preferring a pivot to backing him to score at a long price of +230.
Over the last three seasons Kyrou has averaged 34.66 goals. He’s a notably dynamic offensive skater, with better than average finishing ability. He’s seemingly been an unworthy scapegoat for the St. Louis Blues, who hold a record of 6-9-5. But unfortunately that’s what happens for players expected to produce at an elite rate that aren’t doing so.
Since being made a healthy scratch on November 6th, Kyrou has generally looked a little more engaged, and he’s been rewarded with goals in two of five games, though his chance creation suggests he has still been snake-bitten to have generated more than that. He’s had 34 shot attempts in those five games and poured 16 on target.
The Philadelphia Flyers have allowed only 2.83 goals against per game this season, but they have allowed 3.20 xGA/60 over the last 10 games, which ranks 17th in the NHL. By no means would I argue that this is a better-than-average matchup for Kyrou to score, but it’s a livable one considering how threatening he has looked recently and his +230 price tag.
Best Bet—Jake Allen Under 2.5 Goals Against: +105
Jake Allen under 2.5 goals against
Bettors may not be overly interested in fading the Florida Panthers’ offensive production Thursday following their eight-goal outburst versus the Vancouver Canucks on Monday evening. However, the Canucks hold the highest xGA/60 in the NHL over the last 10 games, while the New Jersey Devils have shown strong defensive upside over the last two seasons.
At their core, both of these teams’ strengths still revolve around strong defensive play, which was apparent in this season’s first head-to-head matchup on October 16th, a game the Devils won 3-1. The three matchups between these sides averaged 5.0 goals per game last season, and the Devils allowed only 1.66 goals against per game in those matchups.
I’m not typically a huge believer in looking at previous head-to-head matchups as a predictive indicator in the NHL, but both teams are still employing similar tactics and rosters and have the same coaching staffs as last season.
The Devils played one of their worst defensive games of the year on Tuesday in Tampa Bay, and head coach Sheldon Keefe will certainly be hammering home the idea that his team can’t win in this league with that type of performance, especially with top forward Jack Hughes currently sidelined.
The Devils have allowed 2.63 xGA/60 this season in even strength play, and have proven to be a competent defensive team in the first year and a quarter of Keefe’s tenure. Their offensive upside is obviously more limited with Hughes sidelined, and my expectation is they come into this game preparing for a tight-checking affair.
The Panthers have been generating chances effectively of late, but their offensive upside is still not all that overpowering with Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, and Eetu Luostarinen currently sidelined due to injury.
Jake Allen has been razor-sharp in goal this season, with a .916 save percentage and 2.24 GAA. My expectation is the Devils author a solid defensive game in this matchup, and given Allen’s strong play, that should give us a good chance of cashing our bet at north of even money.
By no means do I hate the idea of betting the Devils to win this game at +150, but this prop looks particularly intriguing given the potential that the Devils could lose a low-event game with Allen still coming in under 2.5 goals allowed (empty-netters don’t count towards this prop), which is how we won the last time I outlined a goaltender in this market.
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