Let’s take a look at three skaters to feature in an anytime goal-scorer NHL parlay on Thursday night, which prices out at +4355 on bet365. I’d personally recommend also staking these anytime goal-scorer picks as a round-robin wager, allowing us to profit off hitting two of three of our goal-scorers finding the back of the net.
An anytime goal-scorer bet is one of the most popular and straightforward player prop wagers in NHL betting. It allows you to bet on a specific player to score a goal at any point during the game, whether it’s the first goal, last goal, or any goal in between. This bet type offers an exciting way to stay engaged with the game, especially as an NHL parlay, as your selected player can score at any moment to cash your bet.
Nick’s AGS parlay
Egor Chinakhov +325
For the first time this season, the Pittsburgh Penguins will skate without Sidney Crosby on Thursday. As they have a tough remaining schedule and will be dealing with a gigantic loss, backing them to miss the playoffs has become a trendy play this week, a bet that has dropped from +240 at the initial time of Crosby’s injury down to +190.
One concern that I have with that bet, particularly at the adjusted price, is that the Penguins have actually been a fairly well-balanced team this season. Crosby has been fantastic, but the Penguins’ depth has been underrated and they hold the seventh-best expected goal share in the NHL thus far.
The Penguins were able to hang in effectively while Evgeni Malkin, who actually holds a greater point-per-game average than Crosby this season (1.07), was injured. Throughout his career, Malkin has been known to step up when Crosby is sidelined, averaging 1.34 points per game across 148 games.
Head coach Dan Muse has opted to keep his highly effective second trio of Malkin, Chinakhov, and Tommy Novak together for this matchup, and it wouldn’t be remotely surprising if that trio does garner the greatest share of ice time in this matchup with the “top” line now looking much less convincing.
In 131.5 minutes together, the trio has generated 3.92 xGF/60 and outscored opponents 12-7 while scoring 5.47 goals per 60 where it counts.
Backing Malkin to score at +190 is tempting, but at +325, there appears to be superior value in backing Chinakhov to score considering the price disparity. Chinakhov possesses a tremendous release, which has been evident of late as he’s scored five goals over the last 12 games.
Cole Caufield (+150)
Without fact-checking, I’d say with confidence Caufield has been the most consistently featured scorer in these articles, and probably by a wide margin. But based on both his recent chance creation and goal per-game production, it continues to seem surprising that he’s priced in the +145 range to score.
Over the last 21 games, Caufield has scored 15 goals and attempted 5.90 shots per game. He’s averaged 0.53 individual expected goals per game in that span, and that number is calculated based off of a database that creates a percentage chance of scoring from a given location on the ice, but the sample is based off of all shooters and does not quantify scoring talent.
Even if we graded Caufield as a regular shooter, which he simply is not, his recent chance creation numbers suggest he will continue scoring often enough to make prices in this range highly profitable.
Over the last 15 games, the New York Islanders have allowed 3.69 xGA/60 per game, and though Ilya Sorokin has masked that flaw, it is still a matchup in which one of the league’s most talented shooters should spend plenty of time attacking.
Dalibor Dvorsky (+325)
Dvorsky should return home with plenty of confidence after an excellent showing at the Olympics for Slovakia. He scored three goals and three assists across six games and registered 17 shots on goal. Those marks were aided by some soft matchups and hefty usage, but it was still a highly convincing case as to why Dvorsky was a high first-round pick in 2023.
Dvorsky’s usage should remain strong in Thursday’s matchup, as he skated on the top line and top power-play unit at Thursday’s morning skate. Though it hasn’t shined through consistently this season, he possesses an excellent one-timer from the right circle, and his finishing ability was a key reason for his high selection.
Dvorsky scored 21 goals across 61 AHL games last season, after recording 45 goals in 52 games in the OHL the year before.
Based on his improved roles and skillset, it seems logical to believe we start to see Dvorsky’s production rise down the stretch. At +325, I believe we are getting a long enough number to buy into Dvorsky’s upside following a great showing at the Olympics in Thursday’s matchup.
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