The Toronto Maple Leafs and Vancouver Canucks will face off on Hockey Night in Canada Saturday, a matchup that, in some respects, lacks the typical allure of when these high-profile franchises meet.
The Canucks rank last in the NHL with a record of 18-31-5, and at this point, almost the entirety of the fanbase is cheering for losses rather than wins. The Leafs fan base is much more torn, as while earning a playoff spot is now highly unlikely thanks to their current six-game losing skid, fans rooting for the team to “tank” are counting on them finishing low enough to earn a top-five draft selection, or else it would mean handing over a high selection to the rival Boston Bruins.
This feels like a fairly volatile matchup, as it’s somewhat hard to gauge whether the Leafs have been at their lowest over the last six games, or still have even further to fall in losing to the last-ranked Canucks. Given the volatility, I see value in tapping into the idea that the disjointed-looking Leafs are checking out with our same-game parlay at +350.
- Vancouver Canucks Moneyline
- Over 6.5 Total Goals
Maple Leafs vs. Canucks Same Game Parlay
Leg 1: Vancouver Canucks Moneyline
Leafs head coach Craig Berube was once again forced to criticize his team’s effort and sloppy defensive play following their 5-2 loss to the Seattle Kraken Thursday evening. A lack of heart and determination has been a key talking point surrounding the Leafs’ disappointing results this season, and during their six-game losing streak, a lack of urgency and care seemed reasonable criticisms.
Though a lack of urgency among the Leafs’ roster has been particularly concerning recently, what’s become more apparent over the entirety of the season is that their defensive structure and tactics simply are not good, and that the defensive personnel, as well as the shaky bottom six, have caused the team to be outplayed quite consistently.
Over the entirety of the season, Toronto has allowed 3.65 xGA/60 and 31.53 shots against per 60. No other team has allowed over 30 shots against per 60. It has allowed 3.46 goals against per game where it counts.
Things have been particularly awful of late: in January, Toronto ranked last in expected goal share and allowed 3.91 xGA/60. During the Leafs’ six-game losing skid, they have allowed five goals per game and hold an expected-goals share of 44.17%.
Looking away from the numbers and simply zeroing in on the ‘eye test’ and common logic, it seems as though the team is currently lacking any kind of response.
The Leafs played arguably their biggest game of the season last Friday against Mitch Marner and the Vegas Golden Knights, but were dominated early, putting the game out of reach. They responded with a 4-1 loss to the Colorado Avalanche. Maybe you’re generous and want to give the team a pass, as those are both highly formidable opponents. Sure enough. They then followed it up with a horrific defensive showing versus the Buffalo Sabres before being comfortably outplayed by the Seattle Kraken.
For as awful as the Canucks are, and by no means am I arguing they are the better side, it seems as though even the league’s softest offences are capable of generating quality scoring chances versus the Leafs right now and giving themselves a chance to win. The Canucks are a fairly large underdog, so it seems reasonable to take a shot on the idea that we’ve not yet seen the Leafs fully bottom out.
Over 6.5 Total Goals
If the Canucks are to surprise and win this matchup, it will likely come down to a strong offensive output. While the Canucks’ offensive upside is lacking, the Leafs have made countless defensive miscues in the month of January and have allowed a ton of high-quality scoring chances even to softer offensive opponents.
While it seems reasonable to be hopeful that the Canucks can expose what has been a highly disjointed defensive side, they have also been quite shaky on defense of late and are playing a fairly high-event style overall. Vancouver has allowed 4.62 xGA/60 over the last ten games, which is by a wide margin the highest mark in the league, but it has actually generated 3.49 xGF/60 in that span, which ranks 14th in the league.
If we are targeting a Canucks upset, it seems more logical to expect it to come in a higher-scoring variety. The Leafs have scored 3.26 goals per game this season, and their negative goal differential has much more to do with their shaky defensive play than a lack of offensive upside.
It’s obviously an ask to count on the 32nd-ranked Canucks coming through for us with a win, but given how awful the Leafs have played recently, I’m willing to take a stab in backing them to a win that goes over at a long price of +350.