The Toronto Maple Leafs‘ current seven-game losing skid has put to rest any slight possibility of extending the NHL‘s longest playoff streak this season. At this point, the majority of the fanbase is hoping they can fall far enough down the standings to not have to surrender their first-round pick to the Boston Bruins, and that’s something we need to consider when crafting our Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens same game parlay for March 10.
But if there is one game left on the schedule, most fans will be happy to see the team win, it is Tuesday’s matchup versus the rival Montreal Canadiens, and this is effectively the biggest game remaining on Toronto’s schedule.
The Canadiens, meanwhile, remain right in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race. Securing a divisional seed out of the ultra-competitive Atlantic is a very attainable goal, but any meaningful slump could also easily mean missing the playoffs entirely, with the Columbus Blue Jackets and Ottawa Senators both pressing hard to steal spots.
Our SGP prices out at +470 at the time of writing and is also eligible for our top-ranked NHL betting site, bet365, which is offering a 30% parlay boost for Monday’s NHL slate.
- Juraj Slafkovsky Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-120 as a straight bet)
- Auston Matthews to Score + Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+220 as a two-leg parlay)
Nick’s Leafs/Canadiens SGP
Leg 1: Juraj Slafkovsky (-120 as a straight)
Slafkovsky has not played on the top line alongside Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki very often in the later stages of this season, but head coach Martin St. Louis played the three together on Saturday versus the Los Angeles Kings, and the results were tremendous, as the trio combined for seven points and powered the Canadiens to a 4-3 victory.
It would be entirely reasonable to spice the parlay up a little more and add in Slafkovsky and/or Caufield and Suzuki to do some damage on the scoresheet, but backing Slafkovsky to record three shots on goal is my favourite prop bet involving the Canadiens’ high-powered top line given the absurd rate at which Toronto has been allowing shots on target recently.
Over the last four games, Slafkovsky has averaged 6.75 shot attempts per game. He has still recorded 2.75 shots on goal per game in that span and recorded over 2.5 shots three times, but his lofty output of attempts suggests that mark is underselling his potential volume, particularly now that he is alongside Suzuki and Caufield.
Over the last 20 games, Toronto has allowed 33.96 shots against per 60, which is the highest rate in the league by a notable margin. It will undoubtedly be motivated to clean things up defensively in this spot, but it’s the team’s lack of puck-moving ability on the back end, depth, and tactical approach that continues to lead to plenty of time spent playing in the defensive zone.
Legs 2 and 3: Auston Matthews to Score + Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+220 as a two-leg parlay)
Whether our plays are winning or losing, I like to go back to them if the approach seems to be correct. Backing Matthews to record over 3.5 shots on goal has been good to us lately, while two times I have lost on efforts backing Matthews to score during his lengthy 11-game goalless drought.
The important thing to point out here is that we are not betting on the narrative that Matthews is “due”. Chasing bets until they hit is a dangerous betting strategy; if a coin flip lands on heads 50 times in a row, the next toss is still 50-50 odds.
Based on Matthews’ recent output of quality scoring chances, though, it is entirely reasonable to believe +140 is a good price to back him scoring in any matchup right now. Throughout his 11-game scoreless drought, Matthews has generated 43 shots on target and 29 shots from the inner slot.
And as the drought has worn on, it has seemed that Matthews has pressed even harder to get it over with. Over the last four games, Matthews has registered 24 shots on goal, 33 shot attempts, and 3.15 individual expected goals.
The Canadiens have allowed 4.10 xGA/60 over the last 10 games, and 3.30 goals against where it counts. While they are obviously the vastly superior team in this matchup, they are by no means a defensive powerhouse, and this sets up as a solid spot for Matthews to pour at least four shots on goal, and to hopefully finally see one go in.
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