The red-hot Toronto Maple Leafs will face the toughest test in hockey Monday, as they travel into Colorado to take on the Avalanche.
Given that the Maple Leafs are playing their best hockey of the season and are starting to look worthy of a playoff spot, it looks a little crazy to see them priced as massive underdogs at +210. However, considering the Avalanche’s absurd level of dominance this season and record of 19-0-2 on home ice, you could certainly still make an argument that the price is not long enough.
Related: Check out Canada Sports Betting’s best bets across all sports for Jan. 12 with our AI-generated audio recap
The Leafs enter this NHL matchup in the midst of a three-game winning streak and are 7-1-2 over the last 10 games. The knock on their recent run is that they have beaten many teams that are currently in overly good form, but this matchup provides an opportunity for head coach Craig Berube’s side to make quite a statement by snapping Colorado’s 17-game home winning streak.
Our same game parlay comes out to +400 at the time of writing and is eligible for the 30% same-game parlay boost offered by bet365 for Monday’s NHL slate. We will be targeting a mildly competitive and low-scoring game and banking on William Nylander to generate three shots on goal while the price is drastically better than it typically has been over the last two seasons.
- William Nylander Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
- Toronto Maple Leafs +2.5
- Game Total Under 7.5 Total Goals
Nick’s Leafs/Avs SGP
Leg 1—William Nylander Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
Shot volume is down across the league once again this season, and that’s particularly true for any skater going up against the Avalanche, who typically carry much of the overall run of play and are elite defensively. Still, buying low on Nylander in this market looks pretty appealing given that the price for three shots on goal is way up at +165, when for much of the last two seasons, Nylander has had a betting line of 3.5 for shots or at least been heavily favoured to record over 2.5 shots on goal.
This looks like a bit too much of an overadjustment to Nylander’s lesser shot volume of late, though. Over the last five games, Nylander has generated just 10 shots on goal. However, he played only 13:10 in Saturday’s blowout win over the Vancouver Canucks in what was his return from injury, and skated only 8:25 on December 27th in the matchup which he suffered the lower-body injury.
So out of his last five games played, Nylander has played just over 75 minutes and has generated 23 shot attempts in that span. On a per-minute basis, he’s still attempted to shoot quite frequently of late, even if his recent game logs do not quite suggest as much.
Nylander looked good in his return to action Saturday, as he recorded a goal and two assists during his 13:10 of time-on-ice. It’s unlikely in this tough matchup that he will not finish with significantly greater usage, and therefore this looks like a good opportunity to buy very low on Nylander in this market.
Particularly as Toronto’s current second-line combination of Nylander, Matias Maccelli, and John Tavares has performed quite well this season. In 89.5 minutes, the trio holds a 59.3% expected goal share and has generated 61.04 shot attempts per 60, which is the highest rate of any Leafs offensive unit to spend over 50 minutes together this season.
Leg 2—Toronto Maple Leafs +2.5
Though the Leafs will be facing what is undoubtedly the most difficult spot the NHL can offer right now, there’s been a ton of positives surrounding the team of late, and their recent resurgence seems fairly legitimate.
You could really get aggressive and back the Leafs to steal this matchup, but I’m happy to keep it safe and play +2.5 on the puck line, particularly given that most users are able to receive a 30% parlay bonus for a three-leg parlay, which adds a greater incentive to use heavily juiced legs in order to qualify for the boosted odds.
Though the Leafs still aren’t blowing teams out of the water by any means, they have struck a much more reasonable balance of carrying some of the play while still looking to play somewhat passively and avoid allowing true defensive breakdowns, which is ideally supposed to be the strength of head coach Craig Berube’s system.
Brandon Carlo has returned to the lineup in strong form, and the Leafs have allowed only two goals against in three games since his return. Carlo has seemingly helped top defender Morgan Rielly stabilize his game following a nightmare showing in the Leafs’ 4-3 overtime loss versus the New York Islanders on January 3rd.
The Leafs’ bottom two offensive lines have also been drastically more effective of late than they were earlier on in the year, when the team was consistently being drastically outplayed by most opponents.
In eight games since the holiday break, Toronto has allowed 3.50 xGA/60 and 2.37 goals against where it counts. They still aren’t suppressing scoring chances at an elite rate, but their defensive results are much improved compared to earlier on in the campaign, and the ‘eye test’ does agree that they are playing a sharper defensive game.
At the time of writing, the Leafs have not yet confirmed a starting goaltender, but both Joseph Woll and Dennis Hildeby have been quite sharp this season. Woll is listed as probable, and in 17 appearances holds a +4.5 GSAx rating and .919 save percentage, so we can certainly feel comfortable that he can hang in versus a high-powered Avs side if his team continues to offer more respectable defensive play.
While the Avalanche are clearly the best team in hockey, it does seem logical that at some point some level of complacency sets in with the Presidents’ Trophy already looking to be a near certainty. It might not be wise to put too much stock into a small sample size, but over the last five games, Colorado has looked more mortal with a 52.47% expected goal share and two regulation losses.
Losing Devon Toews certainly hurts a lot even for a team as dominant as the Avalanche, while playing without captain Gabriel Landeskog certainly hasn’t helped matters.
Backing the Leafs +2.5 gives us the opportunity to survive one empty-netter, and with that in mind, coupled with the fact that this helps bettors unlock bet365’s 30% boost for a three-leg parlay, this seems to be a good spot to back Toronto keeping this one somewhat competitive.
Leg 3—Game Total Under 7.5
As with our previous leg, if you wanted to try for a really long payout, backing the game to go under its standard total of 6.5 is certainly an option to round out the parlay. Regardless, it seems reasonable to believe that this game will not open up and become a complete shootout.
The buy-in from Berube’s Maple Leafs right now seems to be higher than it has been at any point this season, and from everything we know about Berube as a coach, he will be preaching the need to play a battened-down, well-organized team game in order to expect any kind of success in this matchup as heavy underdogs.
As outlined, the Leafs have been sharper defensively of late and continue to receive strong play in goal. I’m willing to buy into the idea that they can hold Colorado to a somewhat reasonable offensive output, but generating offence at the other end of the ice could still prove difficult.
Over the last 10 games, the Avalanche have allowed just 2.00 goals per game and allowed only 2.96 xGA/60. Trent Miner has been confirmed as Colorado’s goaltender, which is a slight concern, but Miner has been excellent thus far this season with a .945 save percentage and 1.39 GAA across three appearances, and those marks are certainly aided by the fact that he is playing behind the best defensive team in the NHL.
Miner does hold strong results at the AHL level this season, as he’s played to a .907 save percentage and 2.40 GAA in 10 appearances.
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