Following the Olympic break, the Toronto Maple Leafs have lost all three games in regulation by a combined score of 14-5. Prior to the break, it was highly unlikely the team would return to the NHL playoffs for a 10th straight season, but this recent skid has made a playoff absence a foregone conclusion.
The Philadelphia Flyers’ playoff hopes are on life support entering this matchup, but they are still loosely in the mix thanks to two consecutive wins, including an important regulation win on Saturday over the Boston Bruins. They are slight underdogs in Monday’s matchup, as they take on a Leafs side sporting a record of 16-10-6 on home ice this season.
Our same game parlay prices out at +390 at the time of writing and is eligible for the 30% same-game parlay boost offered by bet365 for Monday’s NHL slate.
- Trevor Zegras Over 0.5 Points (-130 as a straight bet)
- Auston Matthews Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+105 as a straight bet)
- Dan Vladar Over 22.5 Saves (-130 as a straight bet)
Nick’s Flyers/Maple Leafs SGP
Leg 1: Trevor Zegras Over 0.5 Points (-130 as a straight bet)
It seemed likely that a change of scenery would prove highly beneficial for Zegras this season, as it was plain to see that former head coach Greg Cronin had coached the life out of his game last year. While playing in head coach Rick Tocchet’s dated offensive systems is still likely not ideal for his game, at least the team seems to be aware of his unique offensive skillset.
Zegras has put up at least one point in 61.02% of games played this season. He’s been less productive of late with just four points over the last six games, but the Flyers have played versus a number of low-event, high-quality defensive teams in that span, and the Leafs obviously do not fit that bill.
By no means do I believe the Leafs will “throw” games down the stretch, and chances are head coach Craig Berube’s side will be eager to show some pride in Monday’s matchup after an embarrassing string of losses. Still, the Leafs have allowed 4.08 xGA/60 over the last 15 games and 34.85 shots against per 60.
Motivated or not, the team has been horrific defensively for the vast majority of the season and offers Zegras a great opportunity to find the scoresheet. Zegras still skates on the Flyers’ top line alongside Travis Konecny and Christian Dvorak, as well as on the team’s top power-play unit. Considering his production this season in similar roles, there looks to be value backing Zegras to record one point in Monday’s matchup at -130.
Leg 2: Auston Matthews Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+105 as a straight bet)
In a lot of recent articles I’ve outlined why it seemed like a good time to buy on William Nylander from a shot volume perspective, mainly based on the fact that oddsmakers seemed to not be considering the intricacies leading to a lesser spell of volume greatly enough.
In somewhat of a similar approach, this now looks to be a good time to buy low on Auston Matthews, who’s recorded only eight shots on goal over the last five games.
After returning from Milan, Matthews spent the day at the White House last Wednesday, leading to some criticism from certain members of Toronto’s massive media presence, be it warranted or not.
Either way, Matthews was likely fatigued for the Leafs’ back-to-back versus the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers, two games in which they were entirely dominated. He then put up only two shots in the Leafs’ ugly loss to the Ottawa Senators on Saturday, and as is the case for most teams facing Ottawa, Toronto struggled to create many chances on target.
So this number has likely already ticked up to some extent based on those three poor performances from Matthews, but those were logical games for Matthews to be less impactful than usual.
The other reason Matthews could be situated to have a more impactful offensive performance Monday is that he is set to skate alongside William Nylander and Bobby McMann at even strength. While by no means has Matthews been great recently, Matthew Knies has also struggled of late, as has Max Domi, and the new combination should help Matthews spend more time attacking in the offensive zone.
More than essentially any other superstar forward this season, Matthews has been used in a shutdown, defensive role versus opposing top lines. Maybe head coach Craig Berube still opts to give the Matthews line some tough D-zone starts, but I have to think that’s not necessarily the plan in putting Matthews alongside Nylander.
Leg 3: Dan Vladar Over 22.5 Saves (+105 as a straight bet)
It seems unlikely that this will be an overly high-event matchup, but a betting line off 22.5 saves for Vladar seems to be a little too low for the majority of game scripts. Tocchet’s side is solid defensively but has still allowed 26.84 shots against per 60 over the last 15 games. They play a fairly conservative game overall in attempting to limit true defensive breakdowns and odd-man rushes, but do not tend to dominate possession.
Vladar has been rock-solid with a +10.1 GSAx and .907 save percentage across 35 appearances. The Leafs should be able to create more chances in this matchup than they have over the previous three games, but I’m not expecting the Flyers to allow a lot of high quality looks that Vladar cannot handle.
This leg works well with our previous two, as more game scripts featuring a Zegras point should main the Flyers are at worst playing even, while four shots on goal from Matthews would obviously help this prop get home.
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