NHL Betting Preview (April 27): Bruins vs. Maple Leafs Predictions

Boston Bruins left wing Brad Marchand and Toronto Maple Leafs left wing Tyler Bertuzzi going at each other as linesman Ryan Daisy breaks them apart in the second period. (Leafs Predictons)

For the Toronto Maple Leafs, home-ice advantage left as quickly as it came. A tight win from the Boston Bruins on Wednesday restored their grip on the series, putting them just two wins away from eliminating the blue and white. After two rest days, the two teams are ready to meet once again at Scotiabank Arena, with the Maple Leafs hoping to avoid having their backs pressed against the wall.

Bet on Bruins vs. Leafs GM4

BOS +101
TOR -111

The Maple Leafs are slight home favourites, coming in at approximately -111 to -120 on the moneyline.

Bruins vs. Maple Leafs Best Odds

Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds-111 @ Pinnacle
Bruins Moneyline Odds+101 @ Pinnacle
Puckline oddsMaple Leafs -1.5 (+228) @ Pinnacle
Bruins +1.5 (250) @ Proline+
Series oddsMaple Leafs +225, Bruins -275 @ Bet365
Total Over 6.0 goals (+102) @ DraftKings
Under 6.0 goals (-111) @ Pinnacle
Time/DateApril 9, 7:00 p.m. ET
TVBroadcast: TSN
Stream: Sportsnet+
(How to watch the NHL in Canada?)

Last Matchup

After a scoreless first period, Toronto got ahead of the Bruins in the mid-late second period, courtesy of some players who had been struggling up to that point. Joel Edmundson carried the puck in, Mitch Marner made a fantastic pass into the slot, and Matthew Knies finished to put the Leafs up 1-0.

That lead, the first time Toronto could describe themselves as ahead in the series, did not last very long. A controversial sequence saw Charlie McAvoy wrestle down Auston Matthews and a skirmish between Brad Marchand and Tyler Bertuzzi, both allowed to continue without referee intervention, while the Bruins skated down the ice. Trent Frederic quickly tied the game, and some would love to be able to pin the whole sequence on officiating, it was a goal that Ilya Samsonov should’ve been able to stop.

Seconds into the third period, Boston’s success on the powerplay continued, this time with Jake Debrusk cleaning up a rebound for his third goal of the series. Tyler Bertuzzi and Morgan Rielly responded ten minutes later, with a shot by the latter that deflected off the former, though that was quickly met by a Boston counter-attacking play that saw captain Brad Marchand bury a top-shelf snapshot in the slot. After a penalty to John Tavares put Toronto shorthanded in the dying minutes, Marchand added an empty netter to cap off the game.

Betting Toronto Maple Leafs (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 1-1-1 o/u)

Toronto’s offensive woes in the postseason once again reared their ugly head in this one, as the Maple Leafs were only able to manage two goals for the eighth time in their last ten playoff games, dating back to Game 5 of their first-round series against Tampa Bay last year. The outliers, a one-goal Game 1 and a three-goal Game 2, maintain their average of just two goals per game in that stretch.

No team that has played five or more playoff games in that stretch has scored fewer goals per game. This is despite Toronto averaging the fourth-most shots on goal per game in that stretch. The biggest offender for them in that period has been their special teams, operating both the worst powerplay and penalty kill in that span.

This, of course, continued on Wednesday and desperately requires a solution for tonight. Toronto went 0/5 on the man advantage and 1/3 on the penalty kill, though we’ll give the slight credit of an empty netter against in the latter scenario. Even with a couple of rough calls throughout the game, the Leafs were put in an opportunity where they could still make special teams their weapon, and it ended up being their anchor. If that can’t be fixed fast, their season is in trouble.

Betting Boston Bruins (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 1-1-1 o/u)

If Monday’s Game 2 was the Auston Matthews game, Wednesday’s Game 3 was the Brad Marchand. While a lot of the talk in Toronto is about Leafs fans not being loud and excitable enough (a topic for another day), one area where that wasn’t the case was in letting their disdain for the Bruins captain be known, and unfortunately for them, they learned that poking Papa Bear only makes him stronger.

Marchand was spectacular in this one, notching the game-winning goal, a primary assist on DeBrusk’s 2-1 tally, and the empty net insurance marker. He managed to get under the skin of Tyler Bertuzzi and other Toronto players and gravitated the game just enough toward him to create distraction, but not enough that he couldn’t handle it. It was a vintage night for the small, skilled, and feisty winger and one that the Boston faithful were waiting to see.

Keeping him from snowballing that momentum will be crucial for Toronto, though it’ll have to come from slowing his line down in a hockey fashion, rather than trying to beat him at his own game. As Game 1 showed, the Leafs can lose sight of the festivities when they focus too much on that side of the game.

Projected Bruins and Leafs Lines

Today’s Toronto Maple Leafs LinesToday’s Boston Bruins Lines
Tyler Bertuzzi – Auston Matthews – Max Domi
Matthew Knies – John Tavares – Mitch Marner
Calle Jarnkrok – Pontus Holmberg – William Nylander
Connor Dewar – David Kampf – Ryan Reaves

Morgan Rielly – Ilya Lyubushkin
Simon Benoit – Jake McCabe
Joel Edmundson – TJ Brodie

Starting In Goal
Ilya Samsonov
PO: 1-2-0, 3.05 GAA, 0.895 SV%
Season: 23-7-8, 3.13 GAA, 0.890 SV%
Jake Debrusk – Pavel Zacha – David Pastrnak
Brad Marchand – Charlie Coyle – Morgan Geekie
James Van Riemsdyk – Trent Frederic – Danton Heinen
John Beecher – Jesper Boqvist – Pat Maroon

Mason Lohrei – Charlie McAvoy
Hampus Lindholm – Brandon Carlo
Parker Wotherspoon – Kevin Shattenkirk

Starting In Goal
Jeremy Swayman
PO: 2-0-0, 1.51 GAA, 0.955 SV%
RS: 25-10-8, 2.53 GAA, 0.916 SV%

William Nylander is projected to be back in the lineup tonight, though it remains to be seen who comes out in his place. Nick Robertson previously occupied his spot, but Robertson fit into Connor Dewar’s fourth-line spot at Friday practice. Meanwhile, Dewar played in an injury-fill-in spot for Auston Matthews, who is recovering from an illness. This means one of Robertson, Dewar, or possibly Ryan Reaves, who appeared to have a long conversation with Sheldon Keefe in that same practice.

It also appears likely that Timothy Liljegren will be coming out for Ilya Lyubushkin. Lyubushkin missed practice yesterday to be with his wife for the birth of their child, and Liljegren played placeholder for him while TJ Brodie played with Joel Edmundson. It’s possible that Liljegren could be getting a promotion to give Lyubushkin more family time, but the consensus on the beat is that this is more likely to be a demotion out of the lineup.

Boston will keep the same personnel and look keen to keep the same lines as they landed on ahead of Wednesday.

William Nylander to score a goal


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Bruins vs. Maple Leafs Injury Concerns

The Maple Leafs seem more likely than not to finally get William Nylander back tonight, as he works towards recovering from extensive migraines. Bobby McMann remains unavailable.

Boston’s IR list remains the same as Wednesday, with Andrew Peeke still out for the foreseeable future along with their pre-playoff IR list of Matt Poitras, Derek Forbort, and Justin Brazeau.

  • The Bruins are now 9-1 in their last ten against the Maple Leafs, with Game 2 being Toronto’s only win in the head-to-head matchup since January 2023. Boston is 6-4 against the puck line and the total goals line has featured five overs, four unders, and Wednesday’s push.
  • The Maple Leafs are 4-6 in their last ten games, with a 3-7 record against the puckline and a 6-3-1 record in hitting the total goals over.
  • Boston are 6-4 in their last ten, splitting the puckline 5-5 and going 2-7-1 against the total goals over.
  • Auston Matthews continues to lead the Maple Leafs in goals (7), points (11) and shots on goal (56) over their last ten games. Mitch Marner leads Toronto in assists over that stretch, with nine.
  • The Toronto blue line has not been productive, save for Morgan Rielly, who has seven assists in Toronto’s last ten games.
  • David Pastrnak remains the top point-getter on the Bruins over their last ten, with a team-leading eight assists, eleven points, and 37 shots on goal. Brad Marchand and Jake Debrusk share the Boston lead for goals in their last ten with four a piece.

Bruins vs. Maple Leafs Predictions

  • David Pastrnak has felt quiet in this series, but has still managed a point in every game. It’s only a matter of time before he “pops” – his best value for an anytime goal is on betano at +125, and if you want to be conservative and get him for a single point, FanDuel is offering that at -265.
  • Wouldn’t it be magical if William Nylander can get on the board in his return? It’s a bit of a heavy expectation, but he’s shown an ability to rise to the occasion in the past. Sports Interaction has the best value on an anytime goal, at +195.
  • If you like the nets to get peppered tonight, bet365 has a fun Same Game Parlay, featuring Max Domi, Morgan Rielly, Pavel Zacha, and Tyler Bertuzzi to all get 2+ shots on goal. Normally this mix would come in at +375 – today you can get it at +450.

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