With only three games on Wednesday’s NHL slate, the Montreal Canadiens and Calgary Flames will take centre stage when they square off at the Scotiabank Saddledome at 8:30 p.m. ET.
My best bet for Wednesday’s clash between the Canadiens and Flames is backing the game to go to overtime at +300.
Canadiens vs. Flames best bet
Regulation tie
It’s getting late early for the Flames, who missed the playoffs in heartbreaking fashion last season with a total of 96 points. Calgary ranks last in the NHL with just two points in its first seven games, and is now priced at +650 to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Chances are the Flames won’t turn things around too significantly. They ranked 29th in goals scored per game average last season, and their roster projects to be comparably unproductive this season.
While the Flames don’t have the offensive upside to create much separation on the scoreboard, they were a competent defensive side last season that played a ton of closely contested one-goal affairs. They stablized defensively in a heartbreaking 2-1 loss to the Winnipeg Jets on Monday, and we could see a similarly contested matchup Wednesday evening.
Exactly 24 of the Flames’ 82 matchups last season required overtime last season, and this seems to be a good spot to bet into that trend. Head coach Ryan Huska’s side will likely bring another desperate, and well-organized defensive effort as we saw on Monday, but their lack of offensive upside will likely remain a concern which helps keep the game close.
The Canadiens have been impressive thus far in playing to a 5-2-0 record, but they have played in a ton of closely contested matchups. If you eliminate empty-netters, every Canadiens game this season has been decided by a one-goal margin, and they have already gone to overtime twice versus Western Conference foes expected to be in a similar cohort as the Flames, being the Nashville Predators and Seattle Kraken.
Canadiens vs. Flames odds
| Canadiens moneyline odds | -125 |
| Flames moneyline odds | +105 |
| Puck line odds | Canadiens -1.5 (+200), Flames +1.5 (-245) |
| Date/time | Oct. 22, 8:30 p.m. ET |
Betting the Canadiens (5-2-0 SU, 2-5-0 ATS, 3-4-0 o/u)
Considering that the Canadiens are relatively short favourites in this matchup versus a 1-6-0 Flames side, a high percentage of public bettors will likely be keen to bet on head coach Martin St. Louis and his upstart young side.
By no means has the Canadiens’ impressive start been a complete fluke, and they are a team that I was high on relative to oddsmakers’ expectations entering the year. With those things said, the Canadiens have played only one matchup versus an opponent that entered the year favoured to make the playoffs, and as outlined, all of their games have been highly competitive.
In even-strength play, the Canadiens hold an expected goal share of 47.22%. There’s more to hockey than public models detail, but expected goal statistics are still a strong indicator. The last 10 Stanley Cup-winning teams hold an average rank below seven in regular season expected goal share.
Montreal is not blowing anyone out of the water, but it has done well to collect points from closely contested matchups thus far this season. Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki lead a solid top offensive trio, while Ivan Demidov offers a highly dynamic piece to the second line.
Still, the Canadiens are not entirely overpowering offensively, and have generated only 2.48 xGF/60 in even-strength play this season. The Flames were strong defensively on home ice last season while earning a record of 23-12-6, and this matchup offers Calgary a good opportunity to play to that strength.
Betting the Flames (1-6-0 SU, 2-5-0 ATS, 5-2-0 o/u)
It seemed unlikely that the Flames would be able to replicate last season’s level of success entering the season, as their overall process was far from dominant. Last year, Calgary was a respectable defensive team, which attempted to steal close wins thanks to elite play in goal from Dustin Wolf.
At some point it becomes unsustainable to only be able to win low-scoring, closely-contested games, which is why the majority of oddsmakers and analysts alike expected Calgary to take a step backwards this season.
While there is always the possibility that the Flames offence simply achieves better results to lead to a more sustainable process, that does not appear all that probable. Nazem Kadri and Jonathan Huberdeau ranked first and second on the team in points last season, but are on the wrong side of the age curve and may not be able to replicate that level of success this season.
Young forwards such as Matt Coronato and Connor Zary could have more productive campaigns, but that likely won’t be enough to move the needle in the right direction.
What’s been shocking is how bad the Flames have been defensively, as they have allowed 3.86 goals against per game. They have already played numerous teams that are expected to be among the league’s best offensively, though, which has likely factored into their defensive regression.
They bounced back with a sharper defensive performance to start this homestand versus the Winnipeg Jets, and it seems reasonable to believe that Huska’s side will stabilize defensively moving forward, but their lack of high-end offensive skaters should make it a trying season.