Join Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop bets available from Friday’s four-game slate.
Best bet-Mika Zibanejad anytime goal: +200
Mika Zibanejad to score vs. Red Wings
Though they rank dead last in goal-per-game average, the New York Rangers have generated chances at a respectable rate this season, currently ranking 13th in the NHL in xGF/60. They have been notably snake-bitten in front of the goal, which is not just obvious based on their metrics but also from watching the majority of their matchups. They hold the NHL’s lowest shooting percentage, and at least looking at proven NHL scorers like Zibanejad, they are due for some positive regression.
Zibanejad has generated 6.59 expected goals this season, which ranks in the NHL’s top 25. He’s scored on just 9.3% of shots taken but is generating more high-quality looks than last season and is a career 13% shooter.
The Rangers’ top power-play unit has generally looked to be moving the puck effectively this season and ranks third in shot attempts per 60. A lack of finish has been an issue, as it has been at even strength, but in time players like Zibanejad should start to hit the mark at a higher rate, and the top unit has generally been effective in recent years.
The Red Wings have allowed 3.60 xGA/60 over the last 10 games, which ranks 22nd in the NHL. Though they look better defensively under head coach Todd McLellan than they did throughout the majority of last season, they still appear to be a below-average side with regard to suppressing opponents’ quality scoring chances.
At +200, I believe we are getting a good price to bet on Zibanejad breaking through with his fifth goal of the season in a solid matchup Friday
Best bet-Joel Farabee to record a point: +128
Joel Farabee to record a point vs. Blackhawks
Prior to being elevated onto the Calgary Flames’ top line alongside Nazem Kadri and Connor Zary, Farabee still appeared to be due for greater production this season. Moving up to the top unit has certainly helped Farabee break through, and he’s now recorded at least one point in five of the last six games.
Based mainly on Farabee’s strong underlying offensive metrics, he holds a +2.4 expected goals above replacement rating this season. He’s had a solid output of quality scoring chances himself but has shot just 11.5%, while his linemates have also struggled to finish during his minutes.
Head coach Ryan Huska has started to lean on Farabee more heavily of late than he was earlier on in the year, which seems quite reasonable given Farabee’s strong play. Over the last four games, Farabee is averaging 18:29 of ice time. While we aren’t going to oversell Farabee’s offensive upside, +128 is appealing given his rising usage, underlying metrics, and current role.
Spencer Knight has been fantastic this season, which has helped mask the fact that Chicago has still allowed the fourth-highest xGA/60 average in the NHL so far. Even considering Knight’s dominance, the Blackhawks still have to be viewed as, at worst, as an average matchup for Farabee to continue his recent production.
There is also the chance that Arvid Soderblom starts tonight’s game (at least at the time of writing), and at that point I would play this bet a little further down to +115.