The Colorado Avalanche will face off against the Ottawa Senators in an exciting nationally broadcast matchup on Wednesday Night Hockey.
The Avalanche have looked a little more mortal of late, having played to a record of 4-4-2 over the last ten games. They are still nine points clear of the Minnesota Wild in the division, having played four fewer games, and it certainly would not be unreasonable if a slight level of complacency has set in.
The Senators should logically be the more desperate side in Wednesday’s matchup, given that they will likely need 40 or so points from their wins in their final 30 games to avoid a disappointing playoff absence after finally finding their way back into the postseason last year.
Our Avalanche vs. Senators same-game parlay is priced at +525 at the time of writing, but is eligible for bet365’s 30% same-game parlay boost for eligible users (must be three legs).
- Over 6.5 Total Goals
- Tim Stutzle/Drake Batherson Over 0.5 Points
- Cale Makar Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
Avalanche vs. Senators Same Game Parlay
Leg 1: Over 6.5 Total Goals
Though most metrics indicate the Senators have been one of the NHL’s best defensive teams, they have allowed 3.35 goals against per game due to a historically bad team save percentage.
James Reimer has been confirmed as the Senators’ starting goaltender in this matchup. The 37-year-old veteran has hung in respectably in his first four starts with the team, at least relative to the results Ottawa’s other options have achieved, but he still looks to be a very unconvincing starter sporting a -1.1 GSAx and .871 save percentage thus far this season.
The Senators have been in strong form offensively of late, having scored an average of 3.7 goals per game over the last ten matchups. They have also generated 3.70 xGF/60 in that span, so the underlying results suggest that they are scoring at the rate that is to be expected given the quality and quantity of their chances.
Despite their slight hiccup over the last ten games, the Avalanche still has to be viewed as the best team in hockey, but perhaps the desire to grind games out in the dog days of the year is waning to some extent. The Avalanche have allowed 3.38 xGA/60 over the last ten games, a drastic uptick from earlier in the year.
Losing elite shutdown defender Devon Toews to injury certainly hurts the Avs’ defensive upside, and it seems reasonable to believe the Senators can manage a respectable offensive output in this matchup following their convincing 7-1 victory over the Vegas Golden Knights on Sunday.
It’s difficult to imagine the Senators defending well enough versus the league’s best offensive team to allow Reimer to allow less than three goals in this matchup, though. Colorado has scored 3.94 goals per game this season, led by some of the best players in the game, and without a sharp performance in goal, it’s a big ask for the Senators to shut down the Avs’ top stars in this matchup.
Leg 2: Tim Stutzle & Drake Batherson to Record a Point
Obviously, this is technically two legs, but we will break them down together because the two selections are highly correlated, and we hope they may factor into the same Senators’ goals.
As outlined, the Avalanche have been a much more reasonable target for opposing star players to produce of late than they were earlier on in the season. In a game where we are expecting seven or more goals, the case for Stutzle and Batherson to find the scoresheet is quite solid.
Based on Wednesday’s morning skate, the Senators will roll with a top line of Stutzle, Batherson, and Claude Giroux at even strength in this matchup. In a small sample of 33.7 minutes of play this season, the trio has been entirely dominant, with an 84% expected-goals share and 3.74 xGF/60.
Looking away from the numbers, it does seem logical that Giroux is a good fit to play alongside Stutzle and Batherson, who have fared well together this season.
Stutzle and Batherson also skate together on the Senators’ top power play unit, which has succeeded on 22.8% of opportunities this season.
Batherson’s offensive production in particular seems to be underrated by oddsmakers and fans alike, given that he ranks second on the Senators with 44 points. Batherson is priced at -110 to record a point as a straight bet, despite producing points at a higher rate than Brady Tkachuk and Jake Sanderson, who are priced at -165 and -120, respectively.
Given that Batherson is on the top line alongside the Senators’ best forward as well as the top power play unit, the price for him to record a point seems to provide more value than other top Senators skaters and fits well into our same-game parlay.
Leg 3: Cale Makar Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
The Senators do suppress scoring chances quite effectively, but a price of -120 for Makar to record over 2.5 shots on goal still looks like it provides value given his recent volume.
Over the last five games, Makar has averaged an absurd 10.0 shot attempts and 3.4 shots on goal. He’s averaged 25:24 of ice time over the last ten games and continues to spend most of his minutes attacking in the offensive zone, playing alongside the Avs’ top line.
As strong as the Senators are defensively, it still seems logical to expect Makar will spend plenty of time attacking in the offensive zone in this matchup. Given his recent usage and my belief that this game will be fairly competitive, with Jared Bednar leaning heavily on Makar, this seems like a strong option to round out our parlay.