Christmas Day’s NFL slate offers no shortage of betting opportunities, especially in the player prop markets. With playoff implications driving intensity, oddsmakers have set tight lines, creating value for bettors who can identify matchups and usage trends worth exploiting.
From red-zone specialists poised for touchdown success to quarterbacks facing favorable coverage schemes, today’s analysis breaks down the top player prop angles for December 25. We’ll highlight statistical trends, betting value across major online sportsbooks, and the best plays to target in each Christmas Day matchup.
CeeDee Lamb over 5.5 receptions
CeeDee Lamb over 5.5 receptions
The Christmas Day NFL action kicks off with the Dallas Cowboys visiting the Washington Commanders. Both of these teams have already been eliminated from playoff contention, but there’s always pride on the line in the NFC East, so expect both teams to play to win on Thursday.
CeeDee Lamb eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards with 51 on seven catches last week versus the Los Angeles Chargers, pushing him over this line of 5.5 receptions in four straight games and six of his last eight. In fact, Lamb has beaten this number in eight of his 12 games this season (67% hit rate), which means we’re getting great value on this prop at -130 odds (56.5% implied odds).
Lamb was held to five receptions but tallied 110 receiving yards and a touchdown back in October against Washington.
Jared Goff over 240.5 passing yards
Jared Goff over 240.5 passing yards
Bettors should expect an extreme sense of urgency from the Detroit Lions on Christmas Day when they take on the Minnesota Vikings. Detroit’s playoff hopes are on life support heading into Week 17, and the squad will need to win out and get some help in order to qualify for the postseason.
That means Lions quarterback Jared Goff should be poised for another big game after throwing for a massive 264 yards last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Goff has beaten his passing yards number of 240.5 in nine straight games and in 73% of his contests this season while averaging 269.1 per game.
Minnesota has been very good against the pass this season, holding its opponents to an average of just 169.2 passing yards per game. However, with the team now out of playoff contention, you have to wonder if the defence will still be motivated to play at its highest level in this contest.
Expect a big game from Goff and back him in this player prop market.
RJ Harvey to score a TD
RJ Harvey to score a TD
The three-game Christmas Day slate wraps up with a clash between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs, who won’t have eilte quarterback Patrick Mahomes available for this contest after he suffered a torn ACL.
Denver is a massive 13-point road favourite on the spread with a playoff spot on the line. It can clinch a berth with a win or tie in this contest and is contention for the AFC’s top seed with an impressive 12-3 record.
The player we’re targeting in this matchup is backup running back RJ Harvey, who has scored a touchdown in four consecutive games and seven of his last nine. He’s a threat to score from both a receiving and rushing perspective, and he should see plenty of snaps if this game gets out of hand in Denver’s favour.
We’re getting nice value here at -120 on a player that has scored at will recently and has seen his snap count rise from around 30% to 68% over the last five weeks.