There are many different ways to bet on MLB, but wagering on player home run props is always the most fun and exhilarating. It’s incredibly difficult to cash these types of bet slips, but when you do, it’s often at long odds and very lucrative.
Join Canada Sports Betting for a look at Friday’s busy MLB slate as we attempt to pick out three player home run props to play.
You can find all of Canada Sports Betting’s best MLB betting sites here!
Pete Alonso (+300)
Pete Alonso has firmly established himself as one of the best home run hitters in MLB over the last few seasons, and he’s on an absolute tear right now, crushing a homer in four consecutive games. The timeliness of Alonso’s hot streak has been beneficial for the New York Mets, who are holding the last playoff spot in the National League heading into action Friday, with the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks hot on their heels.
The Polar Bear’s Statcast metrics are off the charts this season, as he ranks in the 96th percentile in average exit velocity (93.4 mph), the 98th percentile in barrel percentage (19.1), the 96th percentile in hard-hit rate (54), and the 90th percentile in bat speed (75.4 mph).
Additionally, Alonso, a two-time Home Run Derby champion, has belted 20 of his 37 homers at the friendly confines of Citi Field, which has an above-average Ballpark Factor of 105 for homers this season. It’ll be warm at Citi Field on Friday night, with temperatures expected around 24 C with winds blowing lightly in from left field at 8 mph.
The Washington Nationals have not yet announced their starting pitcher for the game, so we don’t have any pitcher vs. batter data to examine. However, Nationals pitchers have coughed up 198 long balls this season, the sixth-most in baseball.
You can find the best odds on Alonso to go deep on Friday night over at Betway.
Matt Olson (+375)
The only power hitter hotter than Alonso right now is Matt Olson, who has homered in five of his last six games to bring his total to 28 on the season. He’s slashing .317/.385/.663 with nine homers and 20 RBIs over the last 30 days after a very mediocre first half of the season.
Olson will be squaring off against veteran right-hander Charlie Morton and the Detroit Tigers on Friday night at Comerica Park. Morton has coughed up 22 home runs through 31 appearances for the Baltimore Orioles and Tigers this season and owns an ugly 9.28 ERA across three starts this month. Morton, now 41 years old, ranks in just the sixth percentile in average exit velocity (91.3 mph), which means opposing batters have been smoking the ball against him.
Olson is 4-for-17 (.235 batting average) with a home run in his career against Morton, which isn’t overly impressive, but pleasant weather conditions (21 C and sunny with light winds) should play in his favour. Atlanta’s first baseman has done the bulk of his damage against right-handed pitching this season, crushing 22 of his 28 homers against righties.
You can find the best odds on Olson to homer over at Pinnacle on Friday.
Matt Olson to hit a home run vs. Tigers
Salvador Perez (+475)
Salvador Perez is one homer shy of 30 on the season, so you can bet he’ll be swinging for the fences on Friday night at Kauffman Stadium against a familiar foe: Max Scherzer. Perez has a whopping 34 career at-bats against the future Hall of Famer, boasting a .676 slugging percentage and 1.048 OPS with three homers. Of course, Scherzer is no longer the flamethrower he once was in his prime, so that should give Perez even more confidence at the plate against Toronto and Scherzer on Friday.
It also helps that Perez has perfected his power stroke recently, swatting four homers in his last five games and six over the last 15 days. The veteran Royals catcher also boasts an elite .546 expected slugging percentage (.453 actual) to rank in the 94th percentile in the majors.
Scherzer has surrendered multiple homers in a game five times this season (16 total home runs), including one blast to Perez back in Toronto in early September.
The best odds on Perez to go deep on Friday night can be found at bet365.
Good luck with all of your wagers on player home run props on Friday night!