Game 3 of the American League Division Series between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees will get underway in The Bronx at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, with the Blue Jays holding a commanding 2-0 lead over their division rivals in the best-of-five series.
Here’s Canada Sports Betting’s best Blue Jays player prop bet for ALDS Game 3: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 0.5 walks.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 0.5 walks
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 0.5 walks
Guerrero Jr. has been a one-man wrecking crew for the Blue Jays since the calendar flipped to October, going 6-for-9 with two homers and six RBIs over Toronto’s first two postseason contests against the Yankees. He was also a Yankee killer during the regular season, boasting a .373/.439/.569 slash line with a lofty 1.007 OPS in 51 at-bats against the Bronx Bombers.
Guerrero Jr. hasn’t drawn a walk yet through two postseason games, but with the Yankees’ World Series aspirations on life support, you can bet they’ll pitch around Guerrero Jr. whenever possible in Game 3, especially if there’s a situation with an open base and runners in scoring position. Vladdy ranks in the 87th percentile in walk rate (11.9%) this season, drawing at least one walk in 62 of the 158 games (39%) he’s appeared in. That means we’re getting fair value on this prop at +140 odds (41.6% implied probability), given there are traditionally more walks granted in the postseason when pitchers tend to tiptoe more around hitters with so much at stake.
Another reason why we love this prop for Game 3 of this series is because of Guerrero Jr.’s previous success against New York’s projected starting pitcher, Carlos Rodon. Vladdy is 10-for-17 (.588 batting average) with a home run, five RBIs, and four walks in 17 career at-bats against the southpaw. No Blue Jay on the current roster has done more damage against Rodon, so you can bet the lefty will be extra cautious with Guerrero Jr. in a do-or-die Game 3 and live on the corners of the plate, even if it means issuing a free pass or two to Toronto’s slugger.
Rodon walked 9.3% of the batters he faced during the regular season, ranking him in just the 28th percentile in walk rate.
Other Blue Jays player props to consider
- Ernie Clement over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs: +105 @ Bet99. Fresh off a three-hit performance in Game 2, Clement is in position to do some more damage in New York on Tuesday night. He’s just 3-for-13 in his career against Rodon, but Clement has absolutely destroyed left-handed pitching this year, slashing .326/.351/.549 with a .900 OPS in 175 at-bats against southpaws. Clement has beaten this betting line in 52 of his 98 games played this season (53% hit rate), including in five straight games.
- George Springer over 0.5 runs scored: +120 @ BetRivers. We’re getting outstanding value on this prop with Springer hitting out of the leadoff spot. He’s beaten this line 69 of his 140 games played (49% hit rate) this season, including five of his last six games. He’s also had some previous success against Rodon, launching two home runs with a .323 on-base percentage (league average is around .320) in 26 career at-bats against the southpaw.