Game 4 of the American League Championship Series between the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners will get underway at 8:33 p.m. ET, with the Mariners holding a commanding 2-1 lead in their best-of-seven series.
Our best Blue Jays player prop bet for ALCS Game 4 is Max Scherzer over 1.5 earned runs.
Max Scherzer over 1.5 earned runs
Max Scherzer over 1.5 earned runs
Could this be the final start of the future Hall of Famer’s illustrious career?
The two-time World Series champion brings a wealth of playoff experience into this start, but at 41 years old, how effective can the Blue Jays expect him to be? Although I think Scherzer will literally leave it all out on the field in this pressure-packed start, this line is too low given the right-hander’s diminished performance as the season has progressed. He was dreadful in September, allowing 17 earned runs across 15 innings (10.20 ERA) while pitching to a 0-3 record.
Scherzer, who was left off Toronto’s ALDS roster after a horrendous finish to the season, ended the regular season with a lofty 5.19 ERA and a 4.79 xERA and 4.55 xFIP. He hasn’t pitched in a game since Sept. 24, when he allowed four earned runs on 10 hits over five innings of work against the Boston Red Sox.
Scherzer has allowed two earned runs or more in each of his last six starts, with a median of four earned runs in that span. He’s also exceeded 1.5 earned runs in 14 of his 17 appearances (82%) overall this season.
Most online sportsbooks have Scherzer’s outs recorded line set very low at 11.5, which signals he’ll likely get an early hook if he gets into any trouble at all, especially with another proven starting pitcher, Chris Bassitt, also included on the ALCS roster and ready to contribute in this contest behind him. However, it’s unlikely the Blue Jays remove him from the game until Seattle does at least some damage against him.
I believe Scherzer will be able to turn back time to an extent and dig deep for a memorable performance on Thursday night, but the probability of the Mariners plating two or more runs against the aging veteran is just too high to pass up.