Team Canada will begin its quest to win a second consecutive Olympic gold medal on Thursday, when the women’s national hockey team takes on Finland, priced as a massive -5000 favourite on the moneyline.
All 23 players from the Canadian roster are currently playing in the PWHL. They have nine skaters returning from the 2022 gold medal team and should have strong familiarity from the recent rivalry series with Team USA. While Canada has generally been the team to beat in this tournament, with five gold medals in the history of the program, it is priced as the second favourite to win gold after losing all four games of the rivalry series by a combined margin of 24-7.
The USA also bested Canada in overtime of the Gold Medal Game at the 2025 World Championships, furthering the case that the U.S. deserves to be the outright tournament favourite. Regarding this matchup, however, that tournament could be a positive indicator, as Canada beat the Finns 8-1 in the semifinal of that tournament after beating them 5-0 in the preliminary round.
My best bet for Olympic women’s hockey Canada vs Finland is backing Daryl Watts to Score at +155.
Best Bet-Daryl Watts Anytime Goal-Scorer: +155
Daryl Watts to score
Watts is one of the most dynamic forwards in the game and is a potential x-factor in this tournament for an older Canadian side that will likely need some younger talents to step up in order to compete with the United States’ excellent roster. Canadian head coach Troy Ryan has familiarity with Watts given that he coaches Watts with the Toronto Sceptres, which should ensure Watts receives every opportunity to play a hefty role in this tournament.
It’s not as though Ryan will be reaching if he opts to use Watts consistently inside the top six. Watts has tallied six goals and 11 points in 15 games this season, after putting up 12 goals and 27 points in 30 games last year. At the most recent Women’s Worlds, Watts scored four goals with one assist in seven games.
At the Red vs. White scrimmage held in October, Watts skated alongside Marie-Philip Poulin and Laura Stacy, and it seems she could have an inside track to skate in a coveted role on what should be a highly formidable top line. It’s likely between her and Jenn Gardiner, but so long as Watts is skating in a top-six role, a price of +155 looks livable, and it’s safe to assume that at worst she’ll still skate on the second unit.
At the 2025 World Championships, Finland allowed 5.33 goals per game versus Canada and Czechia and only looked convincing defensively versus Switzerland, which is priced at +550 to medal in this tournament. In a game where Canada should be a safe bet to score three or more, a price of +155 for Watts to score appears to be a worthy bet.
Canada vs. Finland odds
| Canada moneyline odds | -5000 |
| Finland moneyline odds | +1700 |
| Puck Line odds | Canada -4.5 (+120), Finland +4.5 (–150) |
| Game total | Over 6.5 goals (-114), Under 5.5 goals (-114) |
Betting Team Canada
Ryan’s Canadian side checked all the boxes at the 2022 Olympics, winning the gold medal in highly convincing fashion. Canada went 4-0 in the group stage, outscoring opponents 33-5. They then bested Sweden 11-0 in the quarterfinals, before beating Switzerland 10-3 in the semi-finals. They beat the U.S. 3-2 in the Gold Medal Game, thanks to a goal from “Captain clutch” Marie-Philip Poulin.
For a number of Canadian skaters, such as Poulin, this will likely be their last showing at the Olympics. The level of experience and determination should be positives towards Canada’s case. However, though the urgency level may not have been nearly as high in the rivalry series, the way younger American team dismantling Ryan’s side is a concern.
Ryan’s Sceptres side has struggled to generate chances in recent months, as they are tied for last in the PWHL in goals scored after 15 games. His tactics came into question during the rivalry series and will certainly draw plenty of criticism if things don’t go better versus the Americans this time around.
Canada’s struggles in the rivalry series may not be indicative of how this matchup will go though, as stylistically the Finns present a drastically different matchup. The Americans pushed the play off the rush in those matchups and did a good job of forcing Canada’s defensive core into mistakes with a heavy forecheck.
Finland will likely play a little more passively and will likely attempt to protect “home-plate” in the defensive zone by keeping five bodies below the puck, when Canada generates what will likely be lengthy spells of sustained zone time.
While Czech Republic’s national program has come on strong in recent years, there is still a very wide gap between Canada, the U.S., and the other nations competing in this tournament, and it seems possible that the gap has widened with the majority of Canadian and American skaters now competing full-time in the PWHL.
Canada’s greatest question mark could be the blue line, which generally had the most contention from passionate PWHL observers regarding the team’s selections. The unit clearly lacked pace in the rivalry series in trying to keep up with a stacked American side, and struggled to move pucks cleanly up the ice.
While those concerns could prove significant, it could take until the matchups with Team USA for them to be fully exposed, as Canada should be able to play on the front foot quite comfortably for the majority of this matchup.
Contrary to the men’s program, goaltending is still a strength for the Canadian women, potentially even relative to what the US has to offer. Anne-Renée Desbiens is likely to continue in the starting role for Canada, having played to a .951 save percentage across 11 games in the PWHL this season while holding a sparkling 1.15 GAA.
Betting Team Finland
The Finns will be looking to extend their Olympic medal streak to three straight in this tournament, but online sportsbooks currently have them priced at +200 to do so, as Czechia is now considered the third most likely team to medal.
The Finns have a handful of skaters (Petra Nieminen, Viivi Vainikka, Elisa Holopainen, Jennina Nylund, Emila Vesa, Jenni Hiirikoski, and Sanni Rantala) who have opted to continue competing in the SDHL since the startup of the PWHL. The gap between the SDHL and PWHL is considered to be very wide, and it’s possible that competing in a weaker league has not kept those skaters as sharp as the women competing in what is a full-blown professional league, the PWHL.
Finland’s defensive core has three fairly convincing options but has a distinct lack of depth relative to the gold medal favourites. Jenni Hiirikoski, PWHL defender Ronja Savolainen, Nelli Laitinen, and Sanni Rantala should form two relatively stable units, but the depth beyond that is a significant concern.
Sanni Ahola is expected to be Finland’s number-one goaltender in this tournament. Ahola is currently the backup netminder of the PWHL’s Ottawa Charge, and has made only two starts this season, playing to a .927 save percentage and 1.93 GAA. She was the starting goaltender for Finland in the last two world championships, and seemingly remains the team’s top option.
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