The Toronto Maple Leafs limped into Vancouver Saturday in the midst of a horrid six-game losing skid, which had placed their playoff hopes on life support. It took a shootout for the Maple Leafs to finally get the win, but they ultimately got it done and will now look to build on that win in a winnable game versus the Calgary Flames.
Though most Flames supporters were surely rooting for a loss, Calgary enters off a convincing 3-2 win over the San Jose Sharks, a game in which it generated 42 shots on goal.
Both of these NHL teams have been playing fairly high-event hockey recently, and it seems likely that Monday’s matchup should be fairly back-and-forth with both teams generating a solid output of shots on target. Our same game parlay will target three shooters to go over their shot prop total, and prices out at +875 at the time of writing, prior to bet365‘s 30% same game parlay boost, which is available to the majority of users.
- MacKenzie Weegar Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
- Matt Coronato Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
- William Nylander Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
Nick’s Leafs/Flames SGP
Leg 1: MacKenzie Weegar Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
At this point it seems fairly clear that regardless of who the Leafs play, they will likely allow close to 30 shots on goal. They spent most of the evening trailing versus the NHL’s worst side; they still allowed 30 shots on goal and 26 through regulation. Over the last 12 games, the Leafs have allowed 33.37 shots against per 60, and hold a 43.79% expected goal share.
It seems fairly logical to expect a game script where the Flames generate a lot of shots on goal, yet the scoreline remains quite close, which is why I’m happy to target a long-shot parlay involving two Flames shooters to go over their shot props.
Relative to their record over the last two seasons under head coach Ryan Huska, the Flames have carried play fairly effectively and generated a lot of shots on target. However, they do not create the type of chances that are likely to be finished very often, and often suffer close losses in games where the opposing goaltender finished with a high output of saves, which is the game script we are going to target in this matchup.
With Rasmus Andersson no longer quarterbacking the Flames’ top power-play unit, it seems logical to expect that Weegar’s shot volume will continue to rise moving forward. Over the last three games, Weegar has poured nine shots on target, from a total of 18 attempts.
Over the last 10 games, the Leafs have allowed 8.9 shots against per game to defenders. They spend a lot of time playing in the defensive zone and tend to collapse low in attempting to insulate shots from the most dangerous areas of the ice. Weegar should get a lot of opportunities to try and sift pucks through traffic from the point in this matchup, and I like the chances three of those reach the target.
Leg 2: Matt Coronato Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
Though Coronato has struggled to find consistency this season, he is the most talented shooter in the Flames lineup and does lead the team in goals, albeit with a modest total of 14. Coronato’s linemates and coaching staff should be encouraging him to use his excellent release more often as a result and pressing to find ways to set up the best goal-scorer on a team that struggles mightily to finish.
Over the last five games, Coronato has generated 15 shots on goal from a total of 30 attempts. He’s currently skating on the top line alongside Mikael Backlund and Yegor Sharangovich, as well as the Flames’ top power-play unit. Across 96.1 minutes of play, the trio has generated 67.01 shot attempts per 60, which is the second-highest rate of any Flames trio to spend 80 minutes together this season and the highest of any unit that Coronato has played on.
In a game where we are expecting the Leafs to allow a lot of shots, it seems logical to ride with Coronato given his recent volume and role on the team.
Leg 3: William Nylander Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
Contrary to our previous two selections, Nylander’s recent shot volume does not exactly suggest that this is the strongest bet. However, considering that Nylander is priced at +140 to record over 2.5 shots on goal as a straight, I’m willing to reach a little bit under the assumption that he will start offering more volume moving forward.
In his return to the lineup Saturday evening, Nylander recorded five shots on goal from a total of eight attempts. Over his last 10 games played, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal four times, a mark that suggests +140 is already not the worst number.
However, out of those games, there were some more natural nights for lesser volume, and this does not appear to be one of them. Nylander left after playing only 2:17 on January 15th versus the Golden Knights, having already scored a goal. He played only 16:49 in the game before that on a night where the Leafs got completely dominated by the Utah Mammoth, while on December 27th he played only 8:25 prior to suffering an injury.
If we eliminate the games where the Leafs generated next to nothing, and the two games in which Nylander left early due to injury, his recent hit rate becomes much more impressive considering the long price of +140 for him to record three shots on goal in this matchup.
For much of the past two seasons bettors would have been salivating to see this kind of price for Nylander to record over 2.5 shots on goal. While he might not be the volume shooter he once was, a matchup versus a Flames side that has allowed 28.92 shots against per 60 over the last 10 games seems like a good spot to buy low on Nylander in this market.
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