Winter weather is already causing headaches for commuters across North America. Some cities are more likely to experience road slowdowns, thanks to snow, icy roads, heavy congestion, or accident-prone corridors.
Using a Winter Road Delay Index, which measures traffic congestion, weather disruptions, and accident risk, we ranked the Canadian and U.S. cities most likely to encounter delays this January.
Below you can see the cities with the highest probability of winter delays- and what factors drive their winter traffic grievances.
Key Findings
- Vancouver, BC has the highest chance of winter road delays, with a frustrating implied probability of 69.87%.
- Toronto (68.52%) and Montreal (63.05%) follow in the odds, with Canadian road congestion, heavy snowfall with icy roads and urban congestion, making January commutes practically a roulette game.
- Sunny Los Angeles, CA has the highest probability of winter road delays in the US. Los Angeles residents have an infuriating 66.67% possibility of road delays.
- The sheer grind of California and Texas traffic mean that even without intense winter weather, cities in these states dominate the top 10.
Top 5 Canadian Cities for Winter Road Delays
| Rank | City | Avg. Time to Drive 10km (Rush Hour) | Avg. Snowfall (January, cm) | Traffic Accidents per 100k Residents | Implied Probability |
| 1 | Vancouver | 62 | 3 | 3,009 | 69.87% |
| 2 | Toronto | 59 | 9.4 | 1,499 | 68.52% |
| 3 | Montreal | 53 | 12.4 | 801 | 63.05% |
| 4 | Halifax | 57 | 8.4 | 1,109 | 58.34% |
| 5 | Edmonton | 45 | 8.8 | 1,652 | 53.43% |
1. Vancouver, BC – 69.87%
Despite milder snowfall than eastern Canada, Vancouver’s high traffic congestion and frequent accidents make winter commutes slow and unpredictable. This won’t surprise anyone in British Columbia who has had the misfortune to drive through Vancouver in rush hour.
2. Toronto, ON – 68.52%
Moderate January snow and icy conditions, combined with long rush-hour commutes, turn even short drives into a test of patience.
3. Montreal, QC – 63.05%
The largest city in Quebec has traffic to match. Combine that with Montreal seeing some of the heaviest snowfall in the country and icy roads creating frequent accidents, and you have a January traffic nightmare.
4. Halifax, NS – 58.34%
Snow, slush, and occasional freezing rain on busy city streets make January commutes in Halifax slow and slippery.
5. Edmonton, AB – 53.43%
Persistent snow and high accident rates mean Edmonton, Alberta drivers should plan extra travel time in January.
Top 10 U.S. Cities for Winter Road Delays
| Rank | City | Traffic Index (Higher = Worse) | Avg. Snowfall Days | Accident Risk Index (0-100) | Implied Probability |
| 1 | Los Angeles, CA | 315.5 | 0 | 79.65 | 66.67% |
| 2 | Riverside, CA | 282.61 | 0 | 79.65 | 62.32% |
| 3 | San Francisco, CA | 242 | 0 | 79.65 | 59.50% |
| 4 | Houston, TX | 207.2 | 0.6 | 81.72 | 58.97% |
| 5 | Austin, TX | 198.8 | 0.6 | 81.72 | 54.46% |
| 6 | Anaheim, CA | 215.24 | 0 | 79.65 | 52.29% |
| 7 | Plano, TX | 177.49 | 1 | 81.72 | 51.29% |
| 8 | Miami, FL | 212 | 0 | 72.4 | 51.07% |
| 9 | Irvine, CA | 209.9 | 0 | 79.65 | 50.85% |
| 10 | Dallas, TX | 168.7 | 1 | 81.72 | 49.62% |
1. Los Angeles, CA – 66.67%
Even a rare January drizzle can paralyze L.A.’s sprawling, car-dependent streets, where decades of freeway congestion and commuter volume make traffic nearly inevitable.
2. Riverside, CA – 62.32%
Reliance on a few major highways for commuting, combined with accident-prone roads and winter rain, creates chronic stop-and-go congestion.
3. San Francisco, CA – 59.50%
Steep hills, narrow streets, and high commuter density mean that foggy January mornings and slick pavement quickly turn traffic into a crawl.
4. Houston, TX – 58.97%
Houston drivers deal with urban sprawl, limited public transit, and accident-prone arterial roads. To top it off, while winter conditions are rare, when they hit the city comes grinding to a stop.
5. Austin, TX – 54.46%
Austin’s rapid population growth has strained road infrastructure designed for a much smaller city, meaning even light winter weather can trigger outsized delays.
6. Anaheim, CA – 52.29%
Tourist-heavy traffic and short, congested roads leave drivers vulnerable to slowdowns when January rain or fender-benders strike.
7. Plano, TX – 51.29%
Suburban sprawl and commuter-dependent roads combine with slick January streets, keeping drivers alert for accidents that can slow traffic to a crawl.
8. Miami, FL – 51.07%
Dense traffic networks, high commuter volumes, and occasional winter showers create bottlenecks even when snow isn’t a factor.
9. Irvine, CA – 50.85%
Suburban layouts, heavy reliance on a few main arteries, and wet January roads make even routine commutes slower than expected.
10. Dallas, TX – 49.62%
Expansive road networks, heavy commuter traffic, and high accident risk mean icy or rainy January roads require careful, slow navigation.
Just Leave Early- Winter Delays Are Inevitable
Across the top cities, drivers face at least a 50% likelihood of delays in January, regardless of whether snow is present. The takeaway? Winter commuting headaches aren’t just about weather—they’re the result of a combination of congestion, commute times, snowfall, and accident history. Vancouver tops the Canadian list not because of heavy snow, but due to dense traffic and frequent accidents. In the U.S., Los Angeles drivers face high delay probabilities even without snow, thanks to intense congestion and accident-prone streets. Across the top-ranked cities, data makes one thing clear: the odds of delays in January are high and not even lack of snow can help standstill congested traffic.
Methodology
The Winter Road Delay Index 2026 evaluates 110 cities across Canada and the U.S. to identify where drivers are most likely to encounter delays during the winter season, measuring expected January road disruption across three factors: weather, traffic congestion, and traffic accidents. All components were normalized to allow cross-city and cross-country comparison.
Weather
January weather conditions were assessed using historical data from the Open-Meteo API, averaged over the past five years. The weather index incorporates snowfall and precipitation intensity, frequency of precipitation days, wind conditions, and daylight hours. Higher scores indicate more severe winter conditions.
Traffic Congestion
Traffic congestion was measured using the most consistent and widely available indices for each country:
- Canada: Daily round-trip rush-hour travel time from the TomTom Traffic Index
- United States: Composite congestion scores from the Numbeo Traffic Index
Traffic Accidents
Road safety risk was measured using country-specific official data sources:
- Canada: Traffic accidents per 100,000 residents, based on municipal and provincial open data and normalized using 2021 Census Metropolitan Area population figures from Statistics Canada. The year 2021 was used for consistency.
- United States: Fatal traffic accident data from NHTSA, incorporating one-year and ten-year fatality trends and state-level fatality rates.
The Winter Road Delay Index for each city was calculated as the average of the normalized weather, traffic, and accident scores. Cities were ranked in descending order, with higher scores indicating worse expected January driving conditions. The index totals were converted into implied probability. Final disruption probabilities were converted into American-style odds using standard sportsbook formulas.
You can see the full dataset here.