The Vancouver Canucks and Toronto Maple Leafs will meet for the first time this season in an exciting all-Canadian NHL matchup on Hockey Night in Canada.
With a record of 6-2-2 over the last 10 games, the Maple Leafs are in one of their best stretches of play of the season, and are only one point out of the playoffs at the time of writing. Toronto has been excellent on home ice this season, where it owns a record of 15-5-5.
The Canucks rank 31st in the league with a record of 16-22-5 entering this matchup. This is the type of high-profile game that may provide a little extra inspiration for a side that is a near lock to miss the playoffs at this point, but it is tough to find many positives regarding the team’s recent play that suggest a turnaround is likely.
Our parlay comes out to +210 at the time of writing, targeting the Leafs to win in regulation led by captain Auston Matthews.
- Toronto Maple Leafs Regulation Moneyline
- Auston Matthews Anytime Goal-Scorer
Nick’s Canucks vs. Leafs SGP
Leg 1—Toronto Maple Leafs Regulation Moneyline
The Leafs are 5-0-2 since the holiday break, and compared to some of their other hot stretches of play earlier on in the year, it feels like there is a little substance to this one.
Without question, the Maple Leafs seem to be coming together as a team right now and look more committed to the small details that lead to strong team results relative to earlier in the year. Several of the team’s depth forwards seem to have gained some confidence of late and are in their best stretches of play this season.
It also seems likely that part of the reason those positives are taking place is the fact that head coach Craig Berube’s side has played a more aggressive game overall and seems to be making more of a commitment to possessing the puck and spending fewer minutes hemmed into their defensive zone, which inevitably leads to breakdowns for any team.
Over the last 10 games, the Leafs hold a 51.14% expected goal share and are limiting opponents to 2.71 xGA/60 in even-strength play, which is the 12th-best mark in the NHL throughout that span.
As we saw from the Florida Panthers during their back-to-back Stanley Cup championships, the Leafs attempted to dump a ton of pucks in at the opposing blue line earlier on in the season, but the “chase” element was not overly spirited or well-coordinated. They have started to strike a better balance of late in employing more controlled entries when they’re there or opting for more intelligent dump-ins that have a greater chance of being forechecked effectively.
Toronto played one of its best games of the season on Tuesday versus the Panthers and followed it up with a sound win on the road over a hot Philadelphia Flyers side. They are still a long way away from being worthy of being viewed as a contender, but this should be an attainable win for a team in good form making a push for the playoffs.
After trading away Quinn Hughes, the Canucks seemingly had a bit of a dead cat bounce in winning four straight games. Since that point, the Canucks are 1-5-2 and hold a goal differential of -17 in those matchups. They also hold an expected goal share of just 44.26% in those games and have allowed 30.91 shots against per 60.
In fairness to head coach Adam Foote and the Canucks, it is important to note that part of the team’s recent struggles is due to the fact that it is still dealing with numerous noteworthy absences, which may even be a blessing in disguise at this point. With better injury luck this season, the team likely still would not have been overly competitive, but the sheer amount of injuries has pushed it towards a likely top-five pick.
Marco Rossi had been a relevant pickup for a team in desperate need of another quality NHL centre but was placed on the IR with a lower-body injury on January 2nd. Filip Chytil also remains missing, leaving Elias Pettersson as the team’s only quality option down the middle.
Conor Garland is also still listed as day-to-day, and his potential absence would be meaningful given that he ranks second on the team in points per game this season.
Leg 2—Auston Matthews Anytime Goal-Scorer
While there’s been a number of positives further down the lineup, Matthews looking more like a former Hart Trophy winner since the holiday break perhaps is the most notable development for the team. Matthews has scored seven goals over the last six games and, aside from simply his excellent scoring output, has looked much more dominant overall.
Matthew’s recent chance creation has been highly encouraging, and the statistics suggest this run is a little more than simply a hot streak in terms of finishing scoring chances, though it’s obviously also a good thing that his shot looks to have a little more zip of late.
Over the last six games, Matthews has generated 5.01 individual expected goals from a total of 50 shot attempts. Toronto’s current top line of Matthews, Bobby McMann, and Max Domi has shown strong chemistry this season in scoring 3.96 goals per 60, and Domi and McMann have done a good job of helping find the team’s best goal-scorer in good scoring areas.
The Canucks have allowed 4.10 goals against per game over their last 10 matchups and offer Matthews a good chance to remain productive.
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