The Toronto Maple Leafs currently own the NHL‘s longest playoff streak, having qualified for the postseason in nine consecutive seasons. After Toronto won the Atlantic Division with 108 points last season before losing to the eventual champion Florida Panthers in seven games, online sportsbooks offered it a 76% (-330) chance of earning a 10th consecutive playoff berth entering the year.
At the time of writing, we’ve just hit the critical American Thanksgiving benchmark. Just over 77% of teams in a playoff spot on American Thanksgiving have gone on to make the playoffs in the salary cap era, a number that is typically cited a lot this time of year.
From a historical perspective, the Maple Leafs are sitting in a very tough spot, ranking 15th in the Eastern Conference nearly a third of the way through the 82-game schedule. However, by median points percentage, this is as tightly packed as the NHL standings have been in the salary cap era at this point in the season.
For as dreadful as things have felt so far for the Maple Leafs, they are still just four points back of the Pittsburgh Penguins for the final Wild Card spot and only five points back of an overachieving Boston Bruins side for the third seed in the Atlantic, with the Bruins also having played two more games.
The hole that Toronto has dug early on is far from insurmountable if it is capable of offering better results in the remaining 59 games, so the greater question regarding the likelihood of the Leafs making the playoffs becomes how likely it is that they can improve upon their level of play?
Bet365 currently has the Leafs priced at +130 to make the playoffs and -160 to miss the playoffs. Depending on what you value most, there is a case to be made for each side, which I will attempt to break down without bias before outlining some potential betting strategies depending on your personal viewpoint.
Maple Leafs to make the playoffs
Is there value in back the Maple Leafs to miss the playoffs at -160?
Most projection models would suggest that there is actually still plenty of value in betting the Leafs to miss the playoffs at a price of -160. EvolvingHockey currently projects the Maple Leafs to finish with 86 points and make the playoffs only 24.1% of the time, which suggests there is significant value at -160.
MoneyPuck‘s model is drastically more bullish on the idea that the Maple Leafs won’t make it, currently offering them just a 7.8% chance of sneaking in. My estimation is that MoneyPuck’s model puts less weight on each skater’s grading from previous seasons than other sources, which are holding up Toronto’s chances to some extent in other models.
Head coach Craig Berube’s side did not hold strong underlying metrics last season, and people who base their opinions solely off of underlying statistics would argue that the incredible play in goal from Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz, as well as the team’s record in one-goal games, were the main reasons they were so successful.
Suddenly, this year’s team has been outchanced even more significantly than in 2024-25, and fared worse in one-goal games, which is in part due to lesser goaltending.
While Mitch Marner’s playoff play obviously left something to be desired, he has without question been one of the best wingers in the NHL in recent regular seasons, averaging close to a 100-point pace while offering elite defensive results. Marner’s loss has generally been considered a major reason for Toronto’s early struggles, and it has certainly hurt, but it’s absurd to say that one player would entirely solve all of the issues that we have seen from Berube’s side so far this season.
The Maple Leafs’ defensive core has struggled mightily to generate controlled zone exits and drive play in the right direction and is not adept at helping drive possession and create offence. Perhaps during the Kyle Dubas years the Maple Leafs were a little too soft overall, which was a concern come playoff time, but those teams carried the play at a much greater rate, putting less onus on razor-sharp defensive play in their own zone.
We’ve heard a lot of talk about a perceived lack of heart and determination from the Maple Leafs this year, but my contention would certainly be that tactics and personnel have been much greater concerns and that every moment where a player looks slightly less engaged than expected is being magnified by the team’s overall process.
Simply trying harder likely won’t be enough to turn things around, and it’s likely going to take some meaningful changes in order for the Maple Leafs to figure this thing out, though getting some key bodies back into the lineup is certainly going to help.
The Maple Leafs rank 27th in the NHL in expected goal share and hold a goal differential of -7. There’s always a large portion of hockey fans that hate looking at underlying metrics, but I’d like to hear a compelling argument from observers who don’t believe in metrics as to why this team has been remotely good so far.
As the NHL is so close this season, strength of schedule may not prove to be an overly significant factor, but for what it’s worth, the Leafs currently are considered to hold the toughest remaining schedule based off of average opponents’ current standings rank.
Betting the “no” side of this market likely won’t be overly popular for the vast majority of recreational bettors, who will tie up funds for several months in order to obtain a modest payout. With that said, there is a pretty good case that suggests -160 is a playable number.
The case for the Maple Leafs to make the playoffs at +130
Though the Maple Leafs’ play has not exactly suggested a turnaround is on the horizon, it’s obviously been a start where everything that could go wrong has. They’ve dealt with some serious injuries to numerous key skaters, while prior to his current injury, Anthony Stolarz was having his worst season at the NHL level.
Since returning from a personal leave of absence, Joseph Woll has been rock-solid, playing to a +2.7 GSAx and a .915 save percentage. On Wednesday night we saw how critical Woll can be to this team, as while it’s not ideal that the Leafs were outshot 36-24 by the Columbus Blue Jackets, Woll was able to carry the team to a win and was rightfully named First Star.
The Maple Leafs’ power play currently ranks 28th in the league with a success rate of 15%. While losing Marner hurts, it’s still easy to argue that with Auston Matthews healthy, the Leafs’ power play has the talent to rank in the league’s top third and would be one logical area for improvement the rest of the way.
There are some arguments that suggest some of the teams currently holding down Eastern Conference playoff spots aren’t that legitimate, and it is realistic to think that teams such as the Bruins, New York Islanders, and Pittsburgh Penguins could fall out of the mix. That possibility would crack the door open for a team like Toronto, though the Florida Panthers will likely still find a way to earn one of the eight spots.
My personal recommendation would be to bet on the Maple Leafs on a game-by-game basis as opposed to locking in a position on them to turn things around currently. While I don’t necessarily disagree, the market is pretty low on the Leafs currently, as they just closed at -110 versus the Blue Jackets, and are priced at +130 to win Friday’s matchup versus the Washington Capitals.
Until they start winning some games and offering a higher level of play they will not be getting much credit in the market, and I’d rather just bet on them to win at solid numbers in some of their upcoming games if I were to invest into this team.