It doesn’t get any better than a do-or-die game in the MLB postseason between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, and that’s exactly what baseball bettors will be treated to on Thursday night.
Canada Sports Betting’s main prediction for Game 3 of this Wild Card Series is for the Yankees to score over 3.5 runs at -150 odds (best odds @ bet365).
Red Sox vs. Yankees Game 3 predictions
Yankees to score over 3.5 runs
The Red Sox had planned to use Lucas Giolito (10-4, 3.41 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) as their Game 3 starting pitcher in this short series with the Yankees, but he was shockingly scratched from the roster ahead of the series due to an elbow injury. That means rookie Connelly Early, the No. 6 prospect in Boston’s farm system as ranked by MLB Pipeline, will be thrust into the spotlight in a do-or-die game at Yankee Stadium opposite another rookie, Yankees right-hander Cam Schlittler. Early will be making just his fifth career appearance and his first ever at Yankee Stadium. He’s obviously never pitched in a game with this much pressure in his young MLB career and Yankee Stadium in the postseason is the ultimate pressure test for any MLB pitcher.
Perhaps more troubling is that Red Sox manager Alex Cora burned through six relievers on Wednesday night in an attempt to close out the series with the Yankees, who staged a late rally to claim a 4-3 victory and extend the series. Garrett Whitlock, who has been superb for the Red Sox in high-leverage situations this season, threw a whopping 47 pitches out of the bullpen in Game 2, making him unavailable for this crucial matchup. There’s a tremendous amount of pressure on Early to give Boston some length in this start, as another rookie, Payton Tolle, or veteran southpaw, Steven Matz, would be the only long relief options should he stumble. Both of those pitchers were used last night in Game 2, which could limit their effectiveness and longevity pitching on consecutive nights.
It’s also important to note that New York has home advantage in this series by virtue of having a better regular season record than Boston. Yankee Stadium had the third-highest home run Park Factor in the majors (120) during the regular season, and the Yankees scored the fifth-most runs in the majors at their home venue (4.99 per game). Forecasts are also calling for warmer than usual temperatures for early October on Thursday night, with an expected temperature of 17 C and light winds.
Both games have played under their respective totals in this series (under 6.5 runs in Game 1, under 7.5 runs in Game 2), but the Yankees have seized momentum in this series with their thrilling victory in Game 2, and Boston simply doesn’t have the pitching lined up to suppress New York’s explosive bats on Thursday night.
You’ll have to pay into -150 odds to back the Bronx Bombers on Thursday night, but there also might be value in taking the Yankees to score over 4.5 runs at more enticing +118 odds over at Pinnacle.
With two rookies starting on the mound, taking the over 7.5 runs on the full-game total (-104 odds @ Pinnacle) is also worth a look. We should see some offence from both sides in this spot, with the Yankees likely netting us at least four or five runs.