Sportsbooks Take Bets on Trump´s Lies

Author: James Marshall - Political Editor    Published: 6th November 2019

President Donald Trump’s constant stream of misleading statements and flat-out lies has an army of journalists working 24/7 to set the record straight. There are numerous websites tracking and analyzing Trump's claims, such as the Washington Post Trump Fact Checker, Factcheck.org, Politifact.com and more. According to fact-checkers, every day, Donald Trump lies more often than the average person washes their hands.

"The difference between Trump and me is he lies. I don’t." said Bernie Sanders, the 2020 Democratic presidential candidate.

According to the Washington Post Fact Checker , In 993 days, President Trump has made 13,435 false or misleading claims

What does Trump lie about?


We've created 6.4 million new jobs.
Repeated 106 times


Impeached for what, having created the greatest Economy in the history of our Country, building our strongest ever Military, Cutting Taxes too much?
Repeated 106 times


We discussed ISIS and, as you know, we've pretty much eradicated ISIS in the Middle East.
Repeated 73 times


We have background checks, but there are loopholes in the background checks. That’s what I spoke to the NRA about yesterday. They want to get rid of the loopholes as well as I do..


we're now the largest producer of oil and gas in the world. So a lot of people in the old days -- and this happened over the last very short period of time. We're number one in the world, by far
Repeated 38 times


Thanks to Democrat policies, schoolchildren across the country are being threatened by the vicious gang MS-13.


Democrats slashed Medicare by $800 billion dollars to pay for Obamacare.


We're taking in billions of dollars of tariffs. And despite what the news was saying, there's no inflation. There's not a very big price increase, if any, because they've eaten the tariffs.
Repeated 111 times

Donald Trump - Lies by Month, 2019

Trump Vs Obama

  • U.S President Donald Trump lies more often than you wash your hands every day
    Source: CNN
  • Pinocchio could only have told 13 lies before his nose became so long his neck would have broken
    Source: The Telegraph

Betting on Trump´s Lies

Back in January, people bet on how much Trump would lie in his Oval Office address and Won $276,424.

We asked our resident data scientists to crunch the numbers to estimate whether Trump would surpass 14,200 lies in office by 31st December 2019.

Key facts & figures:

  • According to the New York Times, In his first 10 months, Trump told nearly SIX TIMES as many falsehoods as Obama did during his ENTIRE presidency.
  • In his first 993 days in office, President Trump has made 13,435 false or misleading claims
  • Trump is averaging 603 lies per-month so far in 2019.
  • From 1st January to 9th October 2019, Trump has told 5,785 lies.

The Verdict:

This could be a very good bet. Our machine-learning models indicate a high probability that Trump will smash the 14,200 mark by the end of the year. Our analysis estimates a 54.1% probability that Trump will exceed 14,200 lies by 1st Jan 2020”. - Richard Frank, Data Scientist.

Since we hate to see a good political betting opportunity go to waste, and since we could not find any bookmakers taking bets on this, we decided to partner with a popular online bookmaker to create and open a betting market on Trump's lie total on 31st December 2019 (as recorded by the Washington Post Fact Checker).


Trump Lies - Betting Odds 2019

  • Over 14,200 lies @ 1.85 - Implied Probability 54.1%
  • Under 14,200 Lies @ 1.95 - Implied Probability 51.3%

We will announce the partner bookmaker which will run this betting market on Monday. Stay tuned!

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