Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula face off in a highly anticipated group-stage clash at the WTA Finals in Riyadh, showcasing two of the top performers from an eventful opening round. Sabalenka enters the match as the world No. 1 after a dominant victory over Jasmine Paolini, while Pegula comes in fresh off a hard-fought win against Coco Gauff.
Here are our match betting predictions as the two highly touted women’s tennis stars battle for a spot in the semifinals of the event.
Best Bet – Jessica Pegula +4.5 games handicap
Jessica Pegula +4.5 games handicap
Sabalenka (-350 moneyline favourite @ bet365) remains the benchmark of power and consistency in women’s tennis, and she began this tournament exactly as expected — with a dominant win. A victory today would all but secure her semifinal spot.
However, her opponent, Pegula (+275 moneyline favourite), has proven she can trouble Sabalenka. Their last meeting went the distance, and Pegula’s ability to absorb pace and redirect it with accuracy makes her one of the few players capable of containing Aryna’s aggression. Pegula’s confidence will be high after her win over Gauff, and she’s striking the ball cleanly, particularly on her first serve. Even if Sabalenka prevails, Pegula has every chance to keep the scoreline tight — possibly taking a set or losing by a narrow margin.
Sabalenka vs. Pegula Head-To-Head
Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 8–3, but Pegula won their most recent meeting earlier this season in Wuhan — a tight 2–6, 6–4, 7–6 battle. That victory gives the American both confidence and tactical insight heading into this match.
Sabalenka Form, News & Stats
Sabalenka, the 27-year-old world No. 1 and currently competing as a neutral athlete, remains the dominant force in women’s tennis. Her consistency is astonishing — tournament after tournament, she reaches semifinals or finals, often going all the way to lift the trophy.
Her 2025 Grand Slam record alone illustrates this remarkable steadiness:
- Final – Australian Open (lost a dramatic match to Madison Keys)
- Final – Roland Garros (lost to Gauff in a scrappy contest)
- Semifinal – Wimbledon (defeated by Anisimova in three sets)
- Champion – US Open (defeated Anisimova in the final)
With a bit of luck, Sabalenka could realistically have won all four majors this season — a testament to her power, resilience, and elite mentality.
Despite having “only” three Grand Slam titles, this modest number reflects more circumstance than ability. She’s now entering her peak athletic years, and the future looks extremely promising.
Her game has few weaknesses: a world-class serve, explosive aggression from the baseline, and a relentless ability to dictate points. She’s also mentally unshakable — rarely intimidated and capable of resetting instantly after setbacks.
Last season was outstanding as well, with Grand Slam titles at the Australian Open and US Open, and additional trophies in Cincinnati and Wuhan. Here in the WTA Finals last year, she was stopped in the semifinals by Gauff.
In 2025, Sabalenka has again proven her dominance, winning titles in Brisbane, Miami, Madrid, and the US Open, while reaching multiple Grand Slam finals. She’s clearly established herself as the most consistent player on tour.
She opened this tournament in style, defeating Jasmine Paolini 6–3, 6–1, controlling the match from start to finish. She’ll likely qualify for the semifinals, but this encounter with Pegula is no formality — Jessica has beaten her recently and poses a genuine threat.
2025 notable results:
- Titles: Brisbane, Miami, Madrid, US Open
- Finals: Australian Open, Indian Wells, Stuttgart, Roland Garros
- Semifinals: Berlin, Wimbledon, Wuhan
- Quarterfinals: Rome, Cincinnati
Here at WTA Finals:
- Defeated Paolini 6–3, 6–1 (No. 8 WTA)
- 66% points won on first serve
- 50% points won on second serve
- 66% points won on first serve
Pegula Form, News & Stats
Pegula, aged 31 and ranked No. 5 in the world, has established herself as one of the most reliable and professional competitors on tour. While she doesn’t own a Grand Slam title and has reached a career-high ranking of No. 3, her consistency and all-court competence make her one of the top players of her generation.
Pegula is a model of steadiness. For the fourth straight season, she’s qualified for the year-end Finals — a feat that reflects her ability to perform week after week. She rarely loses early in tournaments where she’s the favorite and often goes deep, collecting titles along the way.
Her style is based on precision and discipline rather than raw power. She commits very few unforced errors, constructs points intelligently, and owns a reliable serve that helps her navigate pressure moments. Mentally, she’s composed and rarely rattled.
Coming from one of America’s wealthiest sports families — owners of the Buffalo Bills (NFL) and Buffalo Sabres (NHL) — Pegula could have easily taken a different path. Instead, she’s worked tirelessly to carve her own identity in tennis, showing determination and humility that have earned her immense respect.
Last season was highlighted by a US Open final, where she lost to today’s opponent, Sabalenka. Despite the defeat, it marked a career-defining achievement. She also claimed a WTA 1000 title in Montreal.
In 2025, Pegula has maintained her strong form, with a US Open semifinal (again falling to Sabalenka) and three titles — in Austin, Charleston, and Bad Homburg. Notably, she was the better player for long stretches in that U.S. Open semifinal, proving that she can challenge Sabalenka even in top form.
She started this tournament with a crucial victory, defeating Gauff in three sets. While Gauff played poorly, Pegula was composed and effective, particularly on her first serve. A win here would almost guarantee her place in the semifinals.
2025 notable results:
- Titles: Austin, Charleston, Bad Homburg
- Finals: Adelaide, Miami, Wuhan
- Semifinals: US Open, Beijing
- Quarterfinals: Doha, Stuttgart
Here at WTA Finals:
- Defeated Gauff 6–3, 6–7, 6–2 (No. 3 WTA)
- 70% points won on first serve
- 34% on second serve
- Faced 8 break points (saved 5)
- 70% points won on first serve