The pre-tournament favourite Canadians will open up their bid for a gold medal Thursday in Olympic men’s hockey with a matchup versus Czechia.
Czechia is considered the fifth-most likely side to medal in the tournament, offering two of the world’s most dynamic forwards in David Pastrnak and Martin Necas, as well as a pair of goaltenders capable of stealing games in Lukas Dostal and/or Karel Vejmelka. They will provide a legitimate test for a stacked Canadian side, which is now priced at -112 to win gold, down from a price of +110 when we wrote our pre-tournament betting guide earlier in the week.
In this article I’ll outline my best bet for this exciting Olympic matchup, as well as the projected lineups and relevant betting notes.
Canada vs. Czechia Best Bet: David Pastrnak to Score +240
Pastrnak to score
There are some enticing player prop angles on the Canadian side of things, which we will touch on further when we break down Canada’s projected lineup based off of their pre-tournament practices. Tom Wilson is set to line up alongside Sidney Crosby and Macklin Celebrini, which has made him a trendy option to score. Celebrini himself also looks like a decent shot, considering his level of play this season and even-strength role, as well as the fact that he is on the second power-play unit.
Though backing Canada’s elite forwards to produce will be the more popular angle in this matchup, backing Pastrnak to score at the long price of +240 is currently my favourite option available on the more popular online regulated sportsbooks.
Canada’s lineup is absolutely stacked up front, and there is a good chance they can manage four or five goals from this matchup, even with Dostal likely to start for Czechia. The one concern relating to all Canadian goal-scorers, though, is that there is only so much ice time to go around, and in a lot of game scripts head coach Jon Cooper may roll all four lines fairly evenly.
In the 4 Nations Face-Off, Canada allowed 2.75 goals per game and was fairly stingy as expected, but not impossible to generate offence against. The obvious concern here is that Czechia may only score one goal, but Jordan Binnington has statistically been the worst starter in the NHL this season, while Canada’s bottom-two defensive pairings may not be entirely dominant, though they will be well supported by plenty of highly accountable elite defensive forwards.
Contrary to on the Canadian side, Czechia’s top line of Pastrnak, Necas, and Tomas Hertl will almost certainly take on a huge workload in this game. Czechia’s top unit certainly won’t receive any overly favourable matchups, but Pastrnak and Necas are two of the NHL’s very best forwards, and should still be able to create some chances despite how stacked Canada’s lineup is.
Pastrnak’s one-timer will be the primary option on Czechia’s top power play. Canada will try to shadow him as much as possible, but as we have seen on the Boston Bruins’ elite power play this season, Pastrnak is good at running overlap plays at the top, and freeing himself up with various different wrinkles.
So while it is intimidating to back a skater from Czechia to score in this matchup, +240 appears to be long enough to take a stab on a goal-scorer of Pastrnak’s calibre, given that he will still be playing on a highly formidable line and garner massive usage.
The consensus price on Pastrnak to score is also a fair bit lower than +240, and anytime you are on the right side of an outlier price, it is a positive indicator, though that point is most notable on two-way markets.
Canada vs. Czechia Odds
| Canada moneyline odds | -625 |
| Czechia moneyline odds | +425 |
| Puck Line odds | Canada -2.5 (-118), Czechia +2.5 (-106) |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-176), Under 5.5 (+145) |
Betting Team Canada
General Manager Doug Armstrong has banked hard on continuity being a strength entering this tournament, as Canada is running back the same defensive core as it did at the 4 Nations Face-Off, while it still feels as though Binnington is the front-runner to be the number-one option in goal.
Projected Lineup based on open practices:
Macklin Celebrini – Connor McDavid (A) – Tom Wilson
Nick Suzuki – Nathan MacKinnon – Brad Marchand
Mark Stone – Sidney Crosby (C) – Mitch Marner
Brandon Hagel – Bo Horvat – Sam Reinhart
Devon Toews – Cale Makar (A)
Josh Morrissey – Colton Parayko
Drew Doughty – Thomas Harley
PP1: Makar, Crosby, McDavid, MacKinnon, Reinhart
Up front, there have been some notable changes compared to what we saw from Canada in the 4 Nations Face-Off last February. Macklin Celebrini had a strong showing at the World Championships last season and is in the Hart Trophy conversation with 81 points in 55 games on an overachieving San Jose Sharks side.
Tom Wilson has not only made the team, but it appears likely to start on the “top” line. He’s an extremely accountable two-way player and has been, by a margin, the Washington Capitals’ best forward over the last two seasons. He certainly has the chance to open some eyes for those who aren’t familiar with how well-rounded his game is.
Almost certainly we will see a little line shuffling throughout the tournament up front, as with so many convincing options up and down the lineup, any forwards or lines that do not appear to be working overly well likely won’t last long.
The bubble decisions up front were more peripheral; there are no overly shocking omissions, and generally they will not realistically be the difference in the tournament when there were still nine or 10 no-doubters led by several of the very best forwards in hockey.
Things are different on the back end, and Canada’s blue line will be a key point of contention if the team happens to falter in this tournament, as we touched on in our pre-tournament guide. Armstrong opted to keep it quite conservative in sticking with borderline defenders such as Colton Parayko, Drew Doughty, Travis Sanheim, and given his surprisingly modest work in the NHL this season, you could even throw Thomas Harley in that mix.
By no means are doubters suggesting that the defence corps that was selected is not capable of winning gold. It’s still compiled entirely of well above average NHLers and will share the ice with one of the best forward corps offered by any side in the history of the sport.
But there is a strong argument to be made that the team left better options at home and potentially took an approach based off of attempting to avoid potential mistakes, rather than aiming to be a powerhouse that would entirely dominate possession shift after shift.
Canada won the 4 Nations Face-Off with the same defensive core, which is the obvious logic in running it back, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it had its optimal roster. Any reasonable combination would have been favoured to win gold, and by no means was the team miles better than the U.S. in the tournament.
Binnington’s level of play could also be a potential concern, as he holds a -24.9 GSAx rating and .864 save percentage in the NHL this season. Binnington was fantastic in the Gold Medal Game of the 4 Nations tournament, particularly in overtime, but played to a .901 save percentage in last year’s playoffs and has been horrific since that point.
It seems reasonable to start with Binnington, which seems to be the team’s desire, but it could be important for the team not to be too married to the idea of sticking with Binnington should he show signs of weakness. Logan Thompson has indisputably been drastically better than Binnington over the last two seasons and deserves an honest look.
Betting Czechia
Relative to its population and amount of NHL skaters, Czechia has historically been a tough out in international play and at the Olympics. They won the 2024 World Championship while displaying notably strong systematic play, and it’s no surprise that the head coach from that side, Radim Rulik, remains in charge for this tournament.
Projected Lineup based on open practices:
Martin Necas – Tomas Hertl – David Pastrnak (A)
Ondrej Palat – David Kampf – Ondrej Kase
Roman Cervenka (C) – Lukas Sedlak – David Tomasek
Matej Stransky – Radek Faksa – Dominik Kubalik
Radek Simek – Filip Hronek
Michal Kempny – Radko Gudas (A)
Jan Rutta – David Spacek
PP1: Palat, Hertl, Necas, Pastrnak, Hronek
Czechia has enough quality NHL talent to offer a fairly formidable team in this tournament, but a medal of any sort will likely still mean heroic performances from top stars such as Pastrnak and Necas, likely coupled with incredible play in goal from Dostal or potentially Vejmelka.
Pavel Zacha appears likely to be sidelined with an upper-body injury for this matchup. While Zacha’s loss would be irrelevant for the true powerhouses in this tournament, his absence from a side with concerning depth down the middle is a concern.
One interesting name to watch on the Czechia side is captain Roman Cervenka. Though his brief stint in the NHL did not work out overly well, Cervenka was fantastic at the 2024 World Championships, though the quality of competition in that tournament was obviously far below what top sides will offer in this tournament.
Goaltending could potentially be a massive strength for Czechia, with Dostal, Vejmelka, and even Daniel Vladar all having strong seasons at the NHL level. It’s a bit of a toss-up whether it will be Dostal or Vejmelka who ultimately earns the number-one role, but both are capable of stealing some games.
There’s a case that when at his best, Dostal might be the superior option, but Vejmelka has been sharper at the NHL level this season. Dostal finished with a +14.3 GSAx rating last season and holds a +3.8 GSAx rating through 38 games this season. His surface-level stats have been quite impressive, but the young Anaheim Ducks have been relatively horrible defensively across the two seasons combined.
Vejmelka, meanwhile, has outperformed Dostal this season with a +11.1 GSAx rating and .902 save percentage.
Both options look pretty solid, and chances are that if Czechia disappoints in this tournament goaltending will not be the reason why, but likely a lack of high quality talent relative to any of the three clear-cut favourites.
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