It’s a light night in the NBA with just four games for basketball bettors to handicap, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t value on the board in regards to player props.
Let’s take a look at three NBA player props that hold tremendous betting value on Thursday.
Andre Drummond over 10.5 rebounds
Best odds: +102 @ Betway
Joel Embiid’s knee injury has allowed Drummond to earn some big minutes over the last five games at the centre position, and he hasn’t disappointed, logging five consecutive double-doubles while playing around 35 minutes per game. Targeting Drummond in the double-double market at roughly +190 odds is certainly something to consider for Thursday’s matchup between the Philadelphia 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks, but we’re going to steer clear of that angle and focus on rebounds, as the Sixers will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back after playing the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday night.
Drummond has historically been an absolute beast on the glass, and he’s averaging a hearty 13.2 per game over his last five contests while playing big minutes in Embiid’s stead. However, Embiid is questionable with his knee injury heading into this game, so bettors will want to make sure he’s ruled out before placing their wagers on any Drummond player prop markets. When Embiid suits up, Drummond typically only plays 15-20 minutes off of the bench, and that likely won’t be enough time for him to amass 11 rebounds and cash this bet.
Milwaukee hasn’t done a proficient job of limiting their opponents on the glass, allowing 57.8 total rebounds per game (25th in the NBA). Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo won’t play due to a groin injury in this contest, which will certainly help the team in the rebounds department, as he averages nearly 11 per game.
Bogdan Bogdanovic over 2.5 assists
Best odds: -120 @ ToonieBet
Bogdanovic, who typically comes off the bench for the Los Angeles Clippers, has beaten this line in six straight games, averaging 4.33 per game during that span. He’s played some solid minutes (26.1 per game) for the Clippers due to Kawhi Leonard being out with a foot injury, and Leonard has already been ruled out for Thursday’s contest with the Orlando Magic. That means Bogdanovic should continue to see some significant minutes, giving him ample opportunity to rack up assists.
Orlando is a solid club defensively, ranking 14th in defensive rating while allowing just 23.7 assists per game (third-least in the NBA). But Bogdanovic, who is averaging 6.3 potential assists per game this season, should still be able to clear this line given his high usage with Leonard out.
Bogdan Bogdanovic over 2.5 assists
De’Aaron Fox over 24.5 points
Best odds: -122 @ NorthStar Bets
With Victor Wembanyama sidelined for multiple weeks with a calf injury, the scoring onus will continue to fall on Fox in San Antonio. In the last two games without Wembanyama, Fox has recorded 26 and 28 points, respectively, while putting up exactly 20 field goals in each of those contests. He’s averaged just 14 field goal attempts per game with Wembanyama in the lineup this season.
Stephon Castle, who is averaging 17.3 points per game for the Spurs this season, has also been ruled out for a few weeks with a left hip flexor strain, putting even more pressure on Fox to put points up on the board.
The Atlanta Hawks are a good team defensively, ranking eighth in defensive rating (112.0) and fourth in team steals (10.1 per game). Both Dyson Daniels and Jalen Johnson are elite NBA defenders, but Fox’s pure shot volume in this contest should make him a candidate to pour in 25 or more points on Thursday.