The PGA Tour’s Florida Swing heads to Bay Hill for the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational, bringing a loaded field and plenty of betting value for golf fans. In this guide to 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational golf odds and picks, we break down the favourites, sleepers, and course trends at Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge to help you find smart outright bets, placement wagers, and props before Thursday’s opening tee shot.
Arnold Palmer Invitational best bet
Sepp Straka (+5000) to win
It’s difficult to bet on anyone else when Scottie Scheffler and/or Rory McIlroy are included in the field on any given week, but there’s value in backing Straka at longer odds than we’re used to seeing in this spot.
Coming off a disappointing T50 result The Genesis Invitational, this seems like an excellent buy-low opportunity on the 13th-ranked player in the World Golf Rankings, especially considering he finished fifth at this event at Bay Hill a year ago despite carding an opening-round 5-over 77. The Austrian also came close to a win earlier this month at Pebble Beach after carding a final score of 21-under par, good enough for a T2 finish.
We typically see Straka’s outright odds hovering between -2500 and -3500 on any given week, so there’s definitely value at 50-1 this week.
Sepp Straka to win tournament
Arnold Palmer Invitational betting favourite
It’ll be no shocker to golf bettors that Scottie Scheffler (+300) is the outright favourite in the field this week. He’s a two-time winner of this event (2024, 2022), but finished 11th last year after failing to shoot below 70 in each of his four rounds at Bay Hill.
Scheffler has one win (American Express) in four starts this season, with his worst result coming two weeks ago at The Genesis Invitational (12th).
In a small sample size, Scheffler ranks first on tour in SG: Total and second in SG: Off The Tee this season.
At +300, there isn’t much value in backing Scheffler at short odds given the strength of the field.
Arnold Palmer Invitational outright odds (top 10)
| Golfer | Odds |
| Scottie Scheffler | +300 |
| Rory McIlroy | +900 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +1600 |
| Collin Morikawa | +2200 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +2200 |
| Xander Schauffele | +2200 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +2800 |
| Harris English | +3000 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +3000 |
| Russell Henley | +3000 |
Arnold Palmer Invitational top Canadians in the field
Corey Conners (+7500): Conners has struggled early this season, finishing inside the top 25 in just one event (Sony Open: T24). However, he’s fared quite well at Bay Hill Club & Lodge, posting a pair of third-place finishes with five top-25 results in seven career starts at the venue.
Nick Taylor (+7500): Taylor has been solid through five events this season, posting a finish inside of the top 28 in each of those events. This venue hasn’t been kind to him, though, as he’s missed the cut three times in eight career starts. His best finish was a 12th-place result in 2024.
Taylor Pendrith (+11000): Pendrith has struggled since opening the season with a T6 result at the Sony Open, missing a pair of cuts and finishing no higher than a T34 over his last four events. He’s missed the cut in back-to-back years at this event.