US Politics Odds: Youngkin, Murphy Impact Midterms?

US Politics Odds: Youngkin, Murphy Impact Midterms?

Here at Canada Sports Betting, we take a look at what impacts the New Jersey and Virginia governor’s races may have on the midterm elections in 2022.

The 2021 US Election Day is here and gone. Some of the latest odds were interesting but the races in two key states for governor stole the show. Oddly enough, the New Jersey Race for governor has drawn some national interest as these two races expect to impact the midterm elections.

However, the most contentious race resulted in Virginia. No one expected this at the start but it turns out the Republican, Glenn Youngkin ran one masterful campaign. It has caused a significant enough shift in poll preferences. Meanwhile, Terry McAuliffe, the former governor, banked on the support of some of the biggest Democrats in the nation.

What has transpired over the past few months has led to this Tuesday, November 2nd, as being another fateful day in American Politics

US Election Day, Midterm Props and Numbers

Again, it has been a wild ride to this point but Election Day has passed. Polls opened early Tuesday morning and closed as late as 8:00 pm ET. The candidates did their traditional breakfast early-morning photo-op where they do their part and vote.

Here are some of the last-minute props and numbers for the mid-term elections coming next November.

2022 Midterm Election Oddsbetway
Controlling The Senate
Democrats3.25
Republicans1.30
Controlling The House
Democrats3.80
Republicans1.22

Virginia Governor Race – Youngkin, McAuliffe Tell Future?

In most circles, the Virginia Governor Race did not seem that big of a deal in the summer. Glenn Youngkin managed to secure the Republican nomination. The first question by many was who is this guy. Now, Terry McAuliffe was the known name and quantity. 

McAuliffe was the former governor of Virginia from 2013 to 2018. With Virginia viewed as a blue state (pro-Democratic) by many pundits, he figured it to be the logical choice to run. He had name recognition and was like the “devil you know” according to most. 

Again, Youngkin was the outsider or the family man. It was not known how this would go but the key early may have been for the Republican candidate staying positive. That allowed him to run a campaign that focused on the issues. 

Meanwhile, McAuliffe branded the Republican another “Trump clone”. It was predictable but honestly effective during the early summer. Early polls had the Democrat up by eight to ten points or so. Nobody expected what was going to happen next. 

Youngkin and McAuliffe Took U-Turn, Unexpected Result?

Everything seemed to change when the talk of critical race theory and school boards came into focus. It was how each candidate handled the issue that not only attracted state but much national attention as well. Glenn Youngkin relentlessly hammered Terry McAuliffe on his experience as governor. 

Then, there were the raucous meetings in Loudoun County. This became a powder keg of sorts as the summer raged on. The one thing that no one should ever underestimate is ticked-off parents. That is doubly true for women. While Youngkin handled this with compassion in many cases, McAuliffe kept dwelling more on race and security. 

Parents, for better or for worse, wanted control of their children’s education. Youngkin tapped into this issue and it became a rallying cry and arguably almost like a movement. Again, McAuliffe focused on diversity and racial inequalities. The problem with that was the ship had started to sail. The Republican nominee was starting to move upward in the polls. 

Even with Barrack Obama, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and other Democratic muscle, little has swayed the turning tide. As of press time, Youngkin held anywhere from a 2-8 point lead in the polls. When all the numbers panned out, the Republican candidate did wind up winning by just over two percentage points.

Our pick, Glenn Youngkin, did win the governor’s race in Virginia in a mild upset from the odds but a bigger one impact-wise.

Murphy over Ciattarelli Too Close To Call

Even the New Jersey Governor’s Race took a huge turn. Phil Murphy, the Democrat incumbent, had a sizeable lead in the polls. Jack Ciattarelli, a Republican businessman from the central part of the state, caught some eyes late in the campaign. 

Predictably, everything in politics turns into a battle of Donald Trump and non-Trump philosophies. This was just how it is. Property taxes and the economy are chief issues in New Jersey, which arguably took as big of an impact from COVID as any other state — even New York. 

Ciattarelli had been able to eat into some of Murphy’s large lead and the race became closer than most expected. The reality is this was true, Murphy carried too many urban areas by a wide margin and that is something Ciattarelli likely cannot overcome. At press time, the race was too close to call. Murphy would be the first Democrat in New Jersey to win re-election as Governor in 44 years.

Phil Murphy should eventually win a second term as New Jersey Governor but the fact that the race was too close to call after Election Day is consequential.

What do The Governor Races mean for the Midterm Elections?

Once the dust settles, the governor’s races do carry some impact. Will there be kneejerk reactions? There is emotional authenticity that is something Democrats have seemingly lacked late. 

There are some suggestions that the polls were again so wrong but were they? Having someone that believes in what one is saying carries far more of an impact.

Take the Republicans to win back control of Congress in the midterm elections. They are favourites at 1.25 to take the Senate and 1.33 to control the House.

The Republicans

To take back the House

1.25

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