Gear up for the return of the Mexico City Grand Prix with our in-depth betting preview.
The Mexican Grand Prix City – after getting cancelled last year – is rebranded as the Mexico City Grand Prix. Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton have each won twice in the last four years – setting the stage for a great race on Sunday. Who will win between the two and what underdog has a shot? Find out in our 2021 Mexico City Grand Prix betting preview.
|To Win the Mexican Grand Prix|
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Max Verstappen Looks for Altitude Advantage for Win in Mexico
The odds from the best F1 sportsbooks have Max Verstappen opening as the favourite to win the 2021 Mexico City Grand Prix. Verstappen is opening as the favourite and the best bet due to his previous success at the track and his car. Verstappen won consecutive Mexican Grand Prix in 2017 and 2018 – despite not holding pole position in either.
Verstappen dominated Hamilton in both races. In 2017, Hamilton settled for fourth – a lap behind his rival. In 2018, he again finished fourth – this time ending the race 1:18 behind Verstappen.
One reason Verstappen has success in Mexico is the design of Red Bull’s car. The Mexico City Grand Prix is the highest altitude race in Formula 1. To have success at higher elevations, you need a car designed with very high downforce. The Red Bull cars are notorious for high downforce and drag – even if it comes at the sacrifice of some aerodynamics.
It is part of the reason why he won the race in 2017 and 2018. He also may have won in 2020 – but a grid penalty cost him in qualifiers. We do not expect the same mistake from Max this year – and have him winning the 2021 Mexico City Grand Prix.
Best Underdog Bet: Charles Leclerc is Offering the Best Value to Win the Race
Following a strong performance at the Austin Grand Prix – we like Charles Leclerc as the best underdog to win the 2021 Mexico City Grand Prix. Leclerc had an impressive showing at the last Mexico City Grand Prix.
Thanks to a grid penalty to Max Verstappen – Charles Leclerc got the pole position for the race. He drove well – winning the fastest lap – and settled for fourth place. The race was close throughout – with 6.368 seconds separating first (Lewis Hamilton) and fourth place.
Leclerc enters the race sixth in the F1 Standings. He has yet to win a race but has finished top-five in four of his last five races. The Ferrari cars – while not as good as Red Bull – are designed reasonably well to deal with the altitude. The Ferrari SF90 has lower drag than many – which helped him secure the fastest lap.
He is a more experienced driver in 2021. It always is a challenge to beat Verstappen and Hamilton – but if someone is going to do it (or something happens to them during the race) Leclerc is a great bet to win.
Weekly Updated Prediction on the Drivers Championship – Max’s to Lose with Five Races Left
|Win the 2021 Drivers Championship|
Heading into the Mexico City Grand Prix, Max Verstappen holds a 12-point lead over Lewis Hamilton and a 102.5-point lead over third-place Valtteri Bottas. There is no reason to waste money betting on Bottas or Sergio Perez winning the championship.
Hamilton’s loss at Austin hurts – as the Mexico City Grand Prix and the Brazilian Grand Prix are races that favour Red Bull and their cars.
With the next two races favouring Verstappen over Hamilton, it is going to be hard for the reigning champ to gain any ground in the standings before the final three races of the year. Let’s assume Verstappen picks up a possible 43 or 50 points (one win, one second) and Hamilton grabs 33 points (one second and one third).
Those results drop Hamilton back 22 points. If Hamilton sweeps the final three races of the 2021 F1 Season, and Verstappen finishes second in all three – Verstappen wins the 2021 F1 Driver’s World Championship.
We are not sure that is what will happen – but basing it around the most likely outcomes – Verstappen will hold his lead with five races left and win a photo-finish World Championship.
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