Canada's 2021 Elections: Why The Liberals are Winning Another Majority

Canada's 2021 Elections: Why The Liberals are Winning Another Majority

A 2021 Canadian Election is on the horizon as some reports are suggesting. Justin Trudeau's Liberals are looking to call for it while the Conservatives and other parties are ill-prepared to dethrone them. This will be Canada's first snap election since 2000, which was also done by the Liberals with the same goal. The betting odds will come out and expect Trudeau's party to be chalk heading to the polls. Let's have a look at our betting picks.

2021 Canadian Elections: It’s Coming

Whether Canadians like it or not, a federal election is coming this year. Although Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been coy about it, reports circulate that the nation may be headed for a snap election and its citizens will be heading back to the polls. 

Federal snap elections are uncommon but have happened six times in the past with the most recent being in 2000. Liberal Prime Minister Jean Chretien called for an election before the Canadian Alliance could consolidate itself. The results were a record low turnout and Chretien and the Liberals winning a majority. 

Twenty-two years later, Trudeau and the Liberals are also looking to win a majority and will take advantage of an opportune time. With Canada now having reached its vaccination goals and having kept the COVID numbers down, the government feels comfortable in organizing a call for the voting process again. 

For sports betting, this comes with a sigh of relief as Bill C-218 was just granted Royal Assent and is a rubber stamp away from being enacted. For the rest of Canada, this news should be met with mixed opinions or indifference but liberal backers should be pleased as their odds of winning a majority should be favourable. 

2021 Canada Elections odds

Why The Liberals Can Win the Majority

Despite all the memes online and all types of outcry regarding Trudeau and the Liberals' misfires, the public sentiment is still widely in favour of the party. Website 338Canada still shows the Liberals are far ahead of the competition and could win another majority.

The site projects the Liberals to win around 168 seats, just two shy of a majority. 

The Conservatives, who just appointed Erin O'Toole as their leader, are in second at 107 seats while the NDP rounds out the top-three at a very distant 35 seats. 

Recent polling from Ipsos suggesting the Conservatives are gaining ground and is pushing the Liberals' aims of a majority at risk. This is also why Trudeau and co. are likely to push for an election. This is akin to "homecourt advantage" in sports.

The Liberals have the most established party and have the stoutest list of policies they aim to implement while the Conservatives are still scrambling given the change of leadership.

There is also Maxime Bernier taking a bite out of the Conservative's ranks with his newly formed People's Party of Canada (PPC) and the Maverick Party, a.k.a. the "Wexit" Party following the backlash of the 2019 Federal Election. 

Though small, the PPC and Maverick Party are expected to siphon 8% and 10% of votes from the Manitoba/Saskatchewan and Alberta regions, respectively.

338Canada still predicts that this won't result in a loss of seats for the Conservatives but should these parties gain more traction, that could cost the Conservatives some valuable votes.

The Liberals still hold a lot of control over the Eastern parts of Canada namely in Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic. British Columbia is a swing province with the NDP holding much sway there. If the Liberals hope to attain a majority, they will need to capture more seats in B.C. while maintaining their status in the aforementioned provinces.

2021 Canada Elections odds

The State of the Other Parties

The Liberals are not just confident they will win but they will gain a majority mostly due to the vulnerability of most of the parties right now. The Conservatives are undergoing new leadership with O'Toole, who has shifted campaigning approaches to appear more of a centrist party than a center-right.

O'Toole and the Conservatives have "softened" their rhetoric is in hopes to attract the younger more moderate voters who gravitate towards the Liberals, NDP, or Green Party. However, this has also caused criticism of the Conservatives from its "true blue" followers, who will likely turn to the PPC and Maverick Party.  

The NDP has laid low and their leader, Jagmeet Singh has gone back-and-forth in supporting Trudeau's policies to decrying his government. But right now, they are a distant third at best with the Bloc Quebecois gaining ground in Quebec. 

The Green Party has all but halted its momentum following the controversial appointment of its new leader, Annamie Paul along with internal issues ranging from accusations of racism and anti-Semitism to financial woes. 

2021 Canada Elections odds

Keep an Eye on Election Odds From Sportsbooks

The top online sportsbooks will eventually open betting lines for the Canadian election likely when it becomes official. Expect the Liberal Party to be a sizable favourite to win followed by the Conservatives. The NDP, Green Party, and the PPC will all be longshots at best. 

As for the majority government, it will be close. The betting lines might reflect a pick'em or 50/50 shot at the Liberals winning a majority. Either way, look for the lines to shift depending on how the campaign process plays out. 

Barring a gargantuan scandal that will tear the Liberals apart, they should be able to win yet another election simply because the other parties are in disarray or not as prepared.

Still, anything can happen. It was only six years ago when Justin Trudeau was considered a walking parody when he ran against Stephen Harper's Conservatives. The result? The first Liberal majority since the last snap election. 

Keep up to date with the latest election news around the country and check your favourite sportsbooks for Election odds and news.