The final major golf championship of the year is upon us as the British Open, also known simply as The Open, approaches this weekend.
It’s a time when the biggest and best names in the sport come out in an attempt to add a career-defining victory to their resumes. Capturing a major is something that every player hopes to achieve and the British Open is no different.
Heading into the event, picking a winner won’t be easy. In golf, anyone can win at any given time and even the most dominant players don’t win that often. Who should you be backing this weekend and who will walk away the latest major champion?
Let’s get into the nitty-gritty and see who you should be backing, staying away from, and considering as a long-shot option at the British Open.
Noteworthy Canadians in the field
The field in your average PGA Tour event usually has anywhere from three to seven Canadians. This time around, however, there are only two hopes for a major championship up north. Corey Conners and Nick Taylor will carry the banner for their country in a field loaded with talent, championship pedigree, and big-time performances.
Corey Conners (+7100): Conners has consistently been among the best on Tour from Canada. He has only missed the cut four times in 10 PGA Tour events this season, though two of them (U.S. Open and Memorial Tournament) have come in his last four starts. He has three top-10 finishes this year and if you can get in on Conners to make the top 20 (+275 at Sports Interaction), that’s a strong bet that could very well pay out at the end of the weekend.
Nick Taylor (+12300): The odds are long for a reason. It’s largely been boom-or-bust for Taylor this season, with more bust than anything else of late. He has missed the cut in five of his last six events, winning the only event (RBC Canadian Open) in which he did not miss the cut. It’s more than likely that he will fail to miss the cut for the third straight event.
Corey Conners to Finish in the Top 20
Outright odds
Once we get past the Canadian contingent, the rest of the field looks quite impressive. There are three clear favourites in McIlroy, Scheffler, and Rahm, with a cluster of potential contenders in the middle of the field. Here are the notables and their odds heading into the British Open.
| Golfer | Odds |
| Scottie Scheffler | +568 |
| Rory McIlroy | +641 |
| Jon Rahm | +1200 |
| Cameron Smith | +1400 |
| Viktor Hovland | +1800 |
| Brooks Koepka | +1900 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +1900 |
| Rickie Fowler | +2100 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +2300 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | +2300 |
| Dustin Johnson | +2400 |
| Collin Morikawa | +2500 |
| Xander Schauffele | +2600 |
| Shane Lowry | +2700 |
| Jordan Spieth | +2800 |
Three players to back
While it might be easiest to bet on the favourites, things rarely work out so easily. There are always a few names that make the most sense and others that could sneak up on you. These are three names that you should definitely consider backing heading into The Open this weekend.
Scottie Scheffler (+568): You don’t get to be the top-ranked golfer in the world without having consistent success. Scheffler has been a machine this season, finishing in the top five of every event this season but three. In those events where he missed the top five, he finished 10th (The Masters), and 11th (Harbour Town Golf Links), and he failed to make the cut at WGC-Match Play. He’s playing some of the best golf we have seen since the prime of Tiger Woods. Scheffler has a win at the Players Championship and prior to a fourth-place finish at June’s Travelers Championship, he finished in the top three in four consecutive events. No matter the event, you can bet on Scheffler to be in the hunt come the final day and this should be no different. You can also grab Scheffler at +198 to finish in the top five across the pond.
Brooks Koepka (+1900): It seems like Koepka, who struggled with injuries during the 2021-22 season, is finally healthy. That’s bad news for the rest of the field and Koepka has been very good on the LIV Tour and exceptionally good at the majors he has appeared in.
He was runner-up at The Masters back in April and then he won the PGA Championship outright in May. He also had a solid 17th-place finish at the U.S. Open last month. He has five victories in majors over the last six years and it would surprise no one to find him with a sixth win this weekend.
Rory McIlroy (+641): There’s a lot to love about McIlroy’s game. He leads the Tour in driving distance, though he is just 44th in ball striking, and T62 in putt average. Still, it’s hard to argue with his results. After a horrid start to the season, missing three straight cuts heading into May, he has been great. He has finished seventh or better in five of his last six events, including a runner-up finish back at the U.S. Open. He’s been a threat in nearly every event going back to the PGA Championship. He also won the Scottish Open last week with a clutch performance on the last two holes.
Rory McIlroy to win The Open
Three players to fade
Even among the favourites, there are a few names that just don’t get it done. While some of these names might be a good bet for the top 10, picking them as an outright winner may wind up being no more than a donation on your part.
Jordan Spieth (+2800): Spieth, who has three majors under his belt and is among the top players in the middle tier of odds, should be one of the first players that you stay away from. In the last few weeks, he has been especially bad, failing to make the cut three times going back to the beginning of May. That includes a major, the U.S. Open, as well. Part of his struggles can be attributed to his issues finding the fairway from the tee. He is 137th in driving accuracy and 88th in total driving. While it wouldn’t defy logic to see him finish in the top 10, there is nothing here that indicates that he will be a major threat to the leader when Sunday rolls around.
Cameron Smith (+1400): Smith is the defending Open champion, which automatically puts many eyes on him. After all, it’s understandable to pick someone who has been there and done that at this event, one where even some of the best golfers in the world can struggle at times. In the three major championship events this year, he has been solid. Aside from a T34 finish at The Masters, he finished T9 at the PGA Championship and fourth at the U.S. Open. He has also been consistently good on the LIV Tour, but look for him to struggle to keep the ball in play and finish outside the top 10 here.
Rickie Fowler (+2100): It might feel confusing to fade someone who just won an event – the RM Classic – but sit tight. Fowler has been consistently good all year. Aside from missing the cut at the PGA Championship, Fowler has finished no worse than 15th in any event.
That said, he only has one other top-five finish on the year back at the U.S. Open. Fowler is a very good player, consistent throughout the year. But there remain questions about whether he can get back to winning outright.
Three dark horses to watch
Golf is the kind of game where anyone can have their best tournament and walk away the winner. At major events like this, where golfers are trying to go the extra mile, there are a few dark horses that can bear watching.
Wyndham Clark (+3900): When Clark is on, he is on. Aside from missing the cut at the PGA Championship, Clark has finished no worse than 29th in any event this year. He even has a quartet of top-six finishes, including wins at the Wells Fargo and U.S. Open. Clark brought his best performance of the year to the table in a major event, showing he can get it done on the big stage. Don’t be surprised if he’s breathing down the neck of the leaders come Sunday.
Max Homa (+4100): This was supposed to be Homa’s move to the top of the rankings, but it has been an up-and-down season at best. He has missed the cut in five events this year and placed outside of the top 40 in two others. That said, he has a pair of top-10 finishes and a very solid 21st-place finish at the RM Classic at the end of June. He has the ability to break out and this could be his chance to really come out of a slump-filled 2023.
Hideki Matsuyama (+5500): Matsuyama has quietly been very solid on the Tour this season. His best major finish this year was 16th at The Masters, and he seems to have come into his own this season. Look for him to rebound from missing the cut at the RM Classic and make a run at a top-15 finish this weekend.
