After a 4-1 loss to the Florida Panthers, the Oilers find themselves trailing 0-2 in the Stanley Cup Final. The situation looks increasingly grim for Edmonton’s Stanley Cup hopes.
NorthStar Bets now lists the Panthers as heavy favourites with an implied probability of 81.98% (-455), while Edmonton’s chances of winning the Stanley Cup have dropped to an implied probability of 21.98% (+355).
Edmonton Oilers Stanley Cup Winner
Edmonton Oilers (12-8 SU, 7-13 ATS, 9-11 o/u)
The consensus was that Edmonton couldn’t win the Stanley Cup with Stuart Skinner between the pipes. Yet, it’s impossible to solely point the finger at the 25-year-old goaltender when the Oilers have scored just one goal in two games against the Panthers. This series has been there for the taking; the Oilers simply haven’t played smart enough or wanted it badly enough to overcome the Panthers’ physical style.
The Panthers make it hard to get to the slot, but the Oilers can’t be satisfied that Evan Bouchard has more shot attempts than Connor McDavid (13) and Leon Draisaitl (11) combined, given that he only has five shots on goal in two games. Bouchard leads the Oilers with 25 shot attempts in the Cup Final, while Mattias Ekholm (13) is tied with McDavid for the second-most shot attempts.
As good as Bouchard and Ekholm have been this postseason, I don’t want to see their names at the top of the shots category when there are three former 50-goal scorers on this team. Edmonton must find ways to generate more high danger shots from the likes of McDavid, Draisaitl, and Zach Hyman rather than settling for low-percentage shots that often don’t make it to the goal.
Edmonton sought to capitalize on their opportunities in Game 2 following a shutout in Game 1. However, they failed to generate any chances. The Oilers managed just one high-danger shot in Game 2, and came away battered and bruised for their efforts.
Florida Panthers (14-5 SU, 9-10 ATS, 7-11 o/u)
Panthers’ captain Aleksander Barkov was on the receiving end of an elbow to the jaw from Oilers’ superstar Draisaitl. Draisaitl was assessed a minor penalty on the play, but Barkov had to miss the final 9:28 of the game. According to Sportnet’s Elliotte Friedman, Draisaitl will not be suspended, or fined, for his role in Barkov’s injury.
Assuming Barkov can’t play, two things will happen for the Panthers. First, Sam Bennett will move up to the top line and the top power play unit, like he typically does when Barkov is out of action. Secondly, Sergei Bobrovsky will cement himself as the Conn Smythe Trophy winner. The 35-year-old goaltender is the clear favourite to win the bet with -182 odds.
However, head coach Paul Maurice said on Tuesday that Barkov will be assessed on Wednesday, so he has not been ruled out for Game 3 on Thursday. In fact, Maurice said that ‘if Barkov continues to progress, (the Panthers) should be in good shape’. Barkov was a popular pick to win the Conn Smythe Trophy heading into the Cup Final, but NorthStar Bets now lists him at 5/1 odds.
There have been complaints from the Oilers’ fan base and media about how this series has been officiated, some of which are fair, but Edmonton is 0-7 on the man advantage through two games. More power plays might buy the Oilers some time, but as long as the Panthers are protecting the slot during 5-on-5 play, it feels inevitable that they will win.
The Panthers have the star power, scoring depth, and defensive structure needed to beat the Oilers and gaining momentum is going to be difficult for Edmonton to do. Florida has had a three-game win streak in all three previous rounds, including five in a row dating back to Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Final.
On top of that, Bobrovsky has held opponents to two or fewer goals in 14 out of his last 16 games and 15 out of 19 games this postseason.
NHL Playoff Betting Trends
- Teams that lead a best-of-7 series 2-0 have a series record of 352-56 (.863). Only five out of 54 teams have overcome a 2-0 deficit to win the Stanley Cup, with only two teams—the 2011 Boston Bruins and the 2009 Pittsburgh Penguins—achieving this in the past 53 years.
- Seven teams have taken a 2-0 series lead in the Cup Final since 2012 and all have gone on to win the Stanley Cup.
- Florida’s come-from-behind win in Game 2 of the Cup Final was the 40th comeback victory in these playoffs, setting a record for the most comebacks through 83 games in a single postseason. It was also the seventh comeback win for the Panthers and marked the fifth time Edmonton lost a game after holding a lead.
- The home team is 39-44 (.470) this postseason. Edmonton has gone 6-3 straight up at Rogers Place in the playoffs, while Florida has gone 6-2 as the home team.
- Out of the 83 games in this postseason, 50 of them have been decided by one goal.
- Since 2021, the total in Games 1-4 are 60-47-2 (55%) to the over, compared to 38-15-2 (69.1%) to the under in Games 5-7.
Stanley Cup Final Prediction
According to CSB’s NHL model, Florida came into the Stanley Cup Final with a 51% chance of defeating the Edmonton Oilers. The Panthers’ odds jumped to 66% following their 3-0 win in Game 1, but now sit at 81% heading into Game 3. That’s slightly more optimistic than that of The Athletic (21%) or Money Puck (22%), but all models, and the betting market, agree that the series odds have shifted from 50-50 to around 80-20 in favour of Florida.
| Team | 4 Games | 5 Games | 6 Games | 7 Games | Win Series |
| Florida Panthers | 22.8% | 26.3% | 18.4% | 13.8% | 81.2% |
| Edmonton Oilers | 0% | 0% | 6.6% | 12.2% | 18.8% |
Edmonton should still be considered a formidable opponent heading into Game 3, but the fact that their back is against the wall seems to be priced into the odds. The Oilers are currently -137 moneyline favourites at NorthStar Bets against a team that’s been a favourite in 18 out of 19 games. I would imagine that the line will move toward the Panthers (+118) if Barkov is able to suit up and play.
Best Bet for Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final
Draisaitl has scored just one goal in his last seven games and hasn’t found the back of the net since Game 4 of the Western Conference Final. The 28-year-old has also gone pointless in two games against Florida so far. However, Draisaitl has been productive on home ice, recording points in eight out of nine games at Rogers Place. Additionally, he has registered at least three shots on goal in seven out of nine home games, averaging 3.67 shots per game at home during these playoffs. NorthStar Bets is offering a completive -125 price on Draisaitl to register over 2.5 shots on goal, and as far as I can tell, it’s the best price in market on this prop.
