NHL Betting Preview (May 23): Stars vs. Oilers Predictions

The Stanley Cup playoffs have now shrunk down to a competition of four, and for those in Canada, only one team remains in its pursuit to bring the championship home for the first time in over three decades. The all-Canadian series saw the Edmonton Oilers squeak ahead of the Vancouver Canucks in a thrilling seven-game matchup, but that now sets them up against arguably the league’s deepest team in the Dallas Stars, a team that was once a very familiar playoff foe.

Bet on Stars vs. Oilers GM 1

EDM +110
DAL -130

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The moneyline favourites are the Stars, coming in between -128 and -135 on the top Canadian sportsbooks.

Stars vs. Oilers Best Odds

Stars Moneyline Odds+116 @ Pinnacle
Oilers Moneyline Odds-128 @ Pinnacle
Puckline oddsOilers +1.5 (-225) @ Sports Interaction
Stars -1.5 (+201) @ Pinnacle
Series oddsOilers -270, Stars +220 @ Bet365
Total Over 6.5 goals (+115) @ FanDuel
Under 6.5 goals (-130) @ Bet99
Time/DateMay 23, 8:30 p.m. ET
TVBroadcast: CBC, Sportsnet, TVA Sports
Stream: Sportsnet+
(How to watch the NHL in Canada?)

Last Matchup

The last game between these two teams was a rout in favour of the Stars on April 3rd. Radek Faska opened the scoring two minutes into regulation, and it was all Dallas from there, adding four more in the span of six minutes in the back half of the second period. Jake Oettinger posted a 35-save shutout.

This gave Dallas the edge in the season series, having also won in regulation on November 2nd. The Oilers won just one of the three matchups, defeating the Stars 4-3 in overtime on February 17th.

Betting Dallas Stars (8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS, 5-8 o/u)

Dallas was my personal pick to win the Stanley Cup going into these playoffs, despite the immense difficulty of their potential path. So far, they’ve risen to the challenge. After falling behind 2-0 to the defending champion Vegas Golden Knights in Round 1, the Stars rallied for four wins in the next five games to close their first-round series in seven. In Round 2, they took out the 2022 champions, falling in OT in their first game against Colorado before repeating their five-game pattern and taking the Avalanche out in six.

Several contributing actors have led to the Stars’ success here, but an easy direction to point towards would be their 2017 Draft super-trio of Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson, and Jake Ottinger. Heiskanen has done wonders on the blue line, producing a point per game in these playoffs while logging extremely heavy minutes. Robertson hasn’t had his usual scoring touch, but has set up a team-leading nine assists. Oettinger has rebounded from a just-okay regular season to dazzle in the playoffs, delivering Quality Starts in 10 of 13 appearances and posting a 0.918 save percentage.

Lastly, Wyatt Johnston has been a revelation for Dallas. The 20-year-old has built on his 65-point sophomore season with 11 points in 13 games in these playoffs, including a two-goal, three-point effort against Colorado in Game 4.

Betting Edmonton Oilers (8-4 SU, 3-9 ATS, 7-5 o/u)

The Oilers come in with a much-needed snap to their win-loss yo-yo, finally winning two in a row for the first time in their second-round series at the most important time – games six and seven. To the Vancouver Canucks’ credit, even without Thatcher Demko the team put up a valiant fight, keeping most of the games close and even almost coming back from 3-0 down in Game 7. But the Oilers sorted themselves out at just the right time.

The optimist will look to Game 6 as a turning point, as it was Edmonton’s first multi-goal win since Game 3 of the Los Angeles first-round series. Needing a win to save their season, the Oilers’ stars all stepped up to dominate Vancouver, winning 5-1 while conceding just 15 shots. Most of that energy was carried into Monday’s series finale. The biggest question now is whether Stuart Skinner’s reset was enough, or if his postseason struggles will return against a deep Stars team.

Projected Stars vs. Oilers Lines

Today’s Dallas Stars LinesToday’s Edmonton Oilers Lines
Jason Robertson – Wyatt Johnson – Logan Stankoven
Mason Marchment – Matt Duchene – Joe Pavelski
Jamie Benn – Tyler Seguin – Evgenii Dadonov
Radek Faksa – Sam Steel – Craig Smith

Thomas Harley – Miro Heiskanen
Esa Lindell – Chris Tanev
Ryan Suter – Alex Petrovic

Starting In Goal
Jake Oettinger
PO: 8-4-1, 2.09 GAA, 0.918 SV%
Season: 35-14-4, 2.72 GAA, 0.905 SV%
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Connor McDavid – Zach Hyman
Dylan Holloway – Leon Draisaitl – Evander Kane
Warren Foegele – Ryan McLeod – Derek Ryan
Mattias Janmark – Sam Carrick – Connor Brown

Mattias Ekholm – Evan Bouchard
Darnell Nurse – Vincent Desharnais
Brett Kulak – Cody Ceci

Starting In Goal
Stuart Skinner
PO: 7-2-1, 2.87 GAA, 0.881 SV%
Season: 36-16-5, 2.62 GAA, 0.905 SV%

The Oilers are projected to go with the same lineup as they ran in Game 7 against the Canucks. That’s not surprising. Why fix what wasn’t broken?

The Stars lineup is daunting, to say the least. Every line and defensive pair has a player who is either a regular difference-maker or someone who’s been there before and can show flashes occasionally.

Connor McDavid to score a goal


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Stars vs. Oilers Injury Concerns

Adam Henrique is day-to-day for the Oilers. Henrique, who has had a nagging ankle injury all playoffs, hasn’t played since Game 2 against the Canucks.

For the Stars, Jani Haakenpaa is still out with an undisclosed injury, having not played since March 16th. Roope Hintz is day-to-day as well, last playing in Game 5 against Colorado. His return can potentially make the biggest difference of any currently-injured player.

  • These two teams have split their last ten games against each other, going back to March 2020. Both are 5-5 against each other straight up and against the puckline. There has been a slight lean to the total goals over along the way, clearing the line six times.
  • The Oilers are 7-3 in their last ten games, with a 2-8 record against the puckline. They’ve had five overs, four unders, and a push against the total goals line in that stretch.
  • The Stars are also 7-3 in their last ten games, with a better 5-5 record against the puckline. Against the total goals line, Dallas have had four overs and six unders.
  • Leon Draisaitl co-leads the Oilers in goals (7), assists (13) and has their outright lead in points (20) over their last ten games. He’s proven himself to be one of the best playoff performers in recent memory, even with whispers of a nagging injury.
  • Draisaitl’s goal lead is split with Zach Hyman, who also leads Edmonton in shots on goal during their last ten games (39). The assist lead is shared with Connor McDavid.
  • Wyatt Johnston leads the Stars in goals (5), points (8), and shots (33) over their last ten games. Dallas have scored by committee, with all but two forwards and three defencemen having a goal to their name in that stretch.

Stars vs. Oilers Predictions

  • Connor McDavid has been great in these playoffs, but he hasn’t been Connor McDavid, if that makes sense. I’d love to see him make a big first impression of the Conference Final tonight. Your best value for an anytime goal is on FanDuel at +155, and your best value on a multi-point night is on DraftKings at -120.
  • Evan Bouchard has been molten-hot of late – if he keeps this up, he’ll be carrying a 1.5 points line before we know it. For now, he remains at 0.5, and the best price for him to clear that is on FanDuel at -200.
  • I’d consider the total goals over tonight. Many series this year have leaned towards goal-happy starts and tighter finishes, and that’s been the case for both teams, who have each cleared the total goals line in both of their Game 1s so far. The best value can be found on FanDuel, with over 6.5 total goals set at +115.

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