The Battle of Ontario is a rivalry that feels dormant compared to its peak, but still provides its share of energy to this day, even as both teams try to figure out how to get back to deep playoff runs. The Ottawa Senators are once again struggling to elevate their core to a perennial playoff team, while the Toronto Maple Leafs are having a down start to their year after finally having a bit of post-season success last season. The Senators tend to play up to this matchup, and by no means should be taken lightly despite the teams’ disparity in record.
Bet on Maple Leafs vs. Senators
TOR -125
OTT +105
Nevertheless, the Maple Leafs are road favourites at -125. However, with the way Leafs fans invade Canadian Tire Centre every time they go up there, can we really call this a road game? Sorry, Sens fans. We’ll get to the actual game details now.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators odds
| Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds | -125 |
| Senators Moneyline Odds | +105 |
| Puckline odds | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+190), Senators +1.5 (-230) |
| Total | 6.5 goals (over -135, under +115) |
| Time/Date | Dec. 7, 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Broadcast: TSN (Toronto/Ottawa Regional), RDS2 (French) Stream: Sportsnet+ (How to watch the NHL in Canada?) |
All odds courtesy of 
About the Maple Leafs (12-6-4 SU, 5-17 ATS, 11-10-1 o/u)
The Maple Leafs come into this game after four days’ rest, giving them a lot of time to think about their last game, a weird one for them in a lot of ways. For one, they entered their matchup against the Bruins as an underdog, a situation that isn’t all that common for them. Secondly, they actually had one of their better efforts of the past few weeks, keeping the Bruins on their toes for much of it, despite never having the lead. They came back twice, once from a two-goal deficit across the second and third periods, and again in the dying seconds of the third thanks to Auston Matthews’ second goal of the night.
And then, with seconds to go in overtime, Brad Marchand – of course, it had to be him – crushed the home crowd’s dreams after a mistake from William Nylander sent Boston the other way. Tough break. But one they can take positive lessons from, and one which they should hope to carry momentum from in a process sense.
About the Senators (10-10 SU, 10-9-1 ATS, 9-7-4 o/u)
The Senators remain a very mixed bag this season, hovering around the .500 mark after yet another summer of hoping for a leap. It just hasn’t come, much to the frustration of those in Ottawa. They’ve had some spurts along the way – three wins in a row in the opening week of the season, a three-in-four run that started with the Leafs in November, and currently, they’re riding high off a shutout against Seattle and a 6-2 win over New York over the past week.
But it’s been tough sledding otherwise, to the point where head coach D.J. Smith’s job security has been put into question. That probably wasn’t helped much yesterday when the team brought Jacques Martin back into the fold. Martin, who was behind the bench for some of the organization’s best years in the 1990s and 2000s, will be serving as a special advisor to the coaching staff, but eyebrows are raised nonetheless. I don’t think there’s a significant “there” there, as Martin is 71 years old now and the team is making amends with all sorts of its former heroes this season. It’s more likely that this is a goodwill gesture with a bit of advice sprinkled in than it is a sign that he’ll be returning to his perch. But Smith’s status is still something to keep an eye on if the Senators’ struggles persist.
Last matchup
We need to go back just a month to get to the last game between these two teams, and it wasn’t a favourable one for the Maple Leafs. In fact, it was one of their most stinging losses of the season so far, one of just three times where they’ve lost by more than a pair of goals. Toronto very briefly had a lead in this one, opening the scoring with a William Nylander power-play tally, but Dominik Kubalik responded less than a minute and a half later to tie the game. In the second and start of the third, the two teams went back and forth between Ottawa going up and Toronto equalizing, before Kubalik’s second goal put Ottawa up for good.
Tim Stutzle and Claude Giroux added insurance to put Ottawa over the top in the closing minutes. Joonas Korpisalo stopped 27 of 30 shots for the win, while Joseph Woll took the loss with a season-worst six goals against on 31 shots.
Projected lineups
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Ottawa Senators |
|---|---|
| Forwards Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – Mitch Marner Tyler Bertuzzi – John Tavares – William Nylander Nicholas Robertson – Max Domi – Calle Jarnkrok Noah Gregor – David Kampf – Ryan Reaves Defence Morgan Rielly – TJ Brodie William Lagesson – Jake McCabe Simon Benoit – Conor Timmins Starting In Goal Joseph Woll 8-5-1, 2.82 GAA, 0.915 SV% | Forwards Brady Tkachuk – Josh Norris – Claude Giroux Vladimir Tarasenko – Tim Stutzle – Drake Batherson Dominik Kubalik – Ridly Greig – Mathieu Joseph Parker Kelly – Rourke Chartier – Zack MacEwen Defence Jake Sanderson – Jacob Bernard-Docker Jakob Chychrun – Travis Hamonic Erik Brannstrom – Artem Zub Starting In Goal Anton Forsberg (Projected) 5-4-0, 2.90 GAA, 0.891 SV% |
The Leafs lineup is the same as it’s been for the past couple weeks, while the Senators lineup is a mix of skilled forwards and defencemen named Jake. Someone make sure that McCabe doesn’t switch uniforms mid-game!
Brady Tkachuk (OTT) over 4.5 shots on goal
+120
Key injuries
Toronto doesn’t have any new injuries, though it did confirm yesterday that John Klingberg will be undergoing hip surgery in the coming weeks and that his season is done.
In Ottawa’s corner, Thomas Chabot suffered a lower-body injury last Saturday, almost immediately after coming off IR with a hand injury. It’s a tough situation for arguably the Sens’ top defenceman, who has barely seen the ice this year. Mark Kastelic is also out with a high ankle sprain, chipping away at the depths of their forward group.
Betting trends
- In the last 10 Battles of Ontario, the Maple Leafs have won six times (1.45 total units of profit if you backed them evenly all 10 times), but the puckline has gone to the Senators seven times (4.27 units lost if you backed the Leafs evenly all 10 times). The over and under have both hit five times each, giving you a slight loss of 0.45 units if you took the over every time.
- Toronto improved to 2-8 on the puckline in its last 10 games with Saturday’s result. Such is the joy of being the underdog for the first time in forever, though taking the Leafs on the puckline as a favourite is still lightning money on fire for the moment.
- Ottawa doesn’t have a lot of trends of late that veer strongly for or against it. The Sens do make good underdogs on the puckline, going 7-3 in their last 10 where they were the least-favoured team.
Player prop trends
- Brady Tkachuk is doing everything he can to fill the net right now, taking 50 shots over his last 10 games, and 28 over his last five. It hasn’t led to a huge production spike, though, as his eight points in his last 10 are good, but not scorching. A great shot prop consideration, but maybe not a sure thing for goals or points.
- If you want recent production, look to Tim Stutzle (3G 10A in his last 10 GP) and Drake Batherson (6G 6A in his last 10 GP). Stutzle’s points are a little more compared to two weeks ago, while seven of Batherson’s 12 points from that block came in his last five games.
- Toronto has three players with 20+ shots in its last five games. They’re exactly who you’d expect them to be – Auston Matthews (23), William Nylander (22), and John Tavares (20).
Wagers to consider
- The books have seemingly caught up to Toronto’s struggles to win decisively of late. The moneyline gap here is tighter than the teams’ records would imply, and the puckline isn’t overly rewarding for the Senators at -230. I still think that fading Toronto on the puckline is good advice, but this will be one for you decide on in terms of value.
- If you like the Sens to win this one, bet365‘s boosted Same Game Parlay which features a Sens win, Tkachuk taking 4+ shots on goal, and Giroux getting an assist checks a lot of reasonable boxes, and comes in at +450 instead of the typical +375.
- If you’re rooting for a barn burner, you can get Matthews and Stutzle to take at least three shots and both teams to score at least three goals, at +300, up from +275 via a boost.
