NFL 2024-25 MVP Odds: Three Early Picks To Consider

Welcome back to another of our early looks at the 2024-2025 NFL betting markets. Earlier in the week we examined which franchises will likely vie for the Vince Lombardi Trophy next year, and now we’ll peer into our crystal ball and try to predict which quarterback will lead their respective teams on an campaign worthy of an NFL MVP Award.

You may have noticed I specifically said quarterback and not player, because let’s be frank, the odds of a non-QB winning this award are slim to none. And when we’re making picks this far out, it simply saves time and effort to cut out the other positions. No disrespect to the running backs, wide receivers and defensive heroes of the NFL, I would love nothing more than to see one of you be crowned most valuable player, but for our purposes today, we’re just going to focus on the pivots.

I’m certainly not alone in thinking it’s a waste of energy to consider non QBs, as the top 14 candidates at bet365 are quarterbacks. The best odds for a non-QB are those for 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey at +5000. The last time a non-QB won the highest honour for an individual player was RB Adrian Peterson in 2012, and even in that case, AP only received 60% of the vote, narrowly beating out Peyton Manning.

I’ve chosen to highlight the top eight players in the running for next year’s award and from that eight, I will break down the field and make my picks. So without further ado, let’s do this!

---

2024-25 NFL MVP Odds

Player	To Win MVP
Patrick Mahomes	+650
Josh Allen	+700
Joe Burrow	+900
Lamar Jackson	+1000
Justin Herbert	+1200
C.J. Stroud	+1200
Jordan Love	+1400
Brock Purdy	+1400

All odds courtesy of

The Top Contenders

Patrick Mahomes

(+650 to win MVP in 24-25)

Mahomes has transcended the NFL this week as fans and non-fans alike have been acutely aware of his most recent Super Bowl heroism. In NFL pundit circles, the greatest of all-time debate has certainly been ignited as Mahomes finds himself going head-to-head with presumptive GOAT Tom Brady for theoretical supremacy. Despite winning three Super Bowls and claiming the Super Bowl MVP in each of those three wins, Mahomes has only claimed the regular-season award twice. He’ll head into the off-season as the favourite, but as someone who typically saves his heroics for the playoffs, there’s definitely reason to look elsewhere for more value when picking for the MVP.

Josh Allen

(+700 to win MVP in 24-25)

Both Allen and our next candidate Joe Burrow were both primed to ascend to the rare heights of NFL gods this season but it never quite happened for them. Burrow has his injury troubles to blame but Allen failing to take that next step while having a healthy season has to be disappointing for him. All that being said, there are compelling reasons to believe that Allen’s ascendency was merely delayed rather than outright cancelled. Allen and the Bills were a team transformed in the latter third of the season, as new OC Joe Brady seemed to light a fire under the offence and Allen in turn thrived under the new gameplan. Should those same Bills enter next season where they left off, and even find ways to help Allen even more, the inconsistencies and slip ups of the past may finally be behind him. 2024-2025 is shaping up to be a banner year for Buffalo’s QB.

Joe Burrow

(+900 to win MVP in 24-25)

Much like Allen in Buffalo, Cincinnati faithful and the NFL at large were expecting a final metamorphosis from Burrow this past season. In the 2022-2023 season, Burrow established himself as a world-beater talent and was poised to play foil to any title contender in the AFC for years to come. Instead, injuries derailed his 23-24 campaign and his inability to get right at any point made the whole thing a wash. His potential for greatness is undeniable, and while overshadowed by injury issues for as long as he’s been, many will have forgotten how good peak Joe Cool can be. Perhaps a little harder to trust in this spot than his peers due to his health history, should Burrow put together a healthy season, there are few in this league that can challenge him.

Lamar Jackson

(+1000 to win MVP in 24-25)

Lamar Jackson claimed his second MVP title this past season and the campaign that won him the award was even better than his first in 2019. Jackson is an undeniably electric talent, but he can’t seem to shake his lack of success in the playoffs. However, for our purposes here today, the playoffs don’t come into the debate at all. It’s hard to imagine Jackson producing a better season than he did this year, at least not immediately afterwards, and that’s where the prospect of picking him gives me pause. Since this is a voted award, the player in question has to do something incredible next time around in order to win back-to-back trophies, I just don’t see it happening in 24-25.

The Dark Horses

Justin Herbert

(+1200 to win MVP in 24-25)

At first glance, it may be a bit odd to see Herbert with the fifth-best odds to win the MVP, but it speaks to how truly great he is, despite his team’s utter lack of greatness. Herbert has strung the Chargers along despite being outmatched for several years now, and you’d have to assume that one day, he’ll get the help he deserves. New HC Jim Harbaugh (who has one of the longest Wikipedia pages I’ve ever seen) may be the start of that help. Whatever you think of Harbaugh as a coach, it’s hard to argue with his results, particularly with Michigan. His players seem to truly love playing for him which may help attract talent worthy of playing with Herbert. It’s hard to imagine that level of turn around right away, so I’ll probably shy away from picking him for this coming season, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Herbert winds up claiming an MVP in the very near future.

C.J. Stroud

(+1200 to win MVP in 24-25)

C.J. Stoud was one of the best, if not the best, story in 2023-2024. A young QB showing up straight from the draft and transforming a franchise the way Stroud did is something special and also something that is really unique to the quarterback position. Now you may be thinking, sure, being a super impressive rookie is one thing but following that up with an MVP is unheard of. I’m here to correct the record. Stroud will be turning 23 early into next season and is, in fact, a prime age to turn in a most valuable season. In fact, we have a current MVP to inspire us and to in turn inspire Stroud: Lamar Jackson, the 23-24 MVP, claimed his first award in 2019 at the age of 22, one season removed from his rookie campaign. History is on Stroud’s side, and as this is a voted award, I can’t help but think he’s got that new toy cache that will play so well with the collected NFL press.

Jordan Love

(+1400 to win MVP in 24-25)

I can certainly see Green Bay’s Jordan Love as an eventual MVP, in the grand tradition of Favre and Rodgers, but not this soon. The latter portion of Love’s season was impressive, and beating the Cowboys in the wild-card game certainly put him on a lot of folks’ map. But the underlying stats and eye test don’t do it for me with Love, at least as much as some others on this list. The future is bright for Love and the Packers but it’ll take some seasoning yet.

Brock Purdy

(+1400 to win MVP in 24-25)

Poor Brock Purdy. The season-long MVP chatter led to nothing (eventually landing fourth in total voting while garnering zero first-place votes) and neither did the 49ers’ Super Bowl campaign. Undeniably a great QB (we can finally put aside the Mr. Irrelevant moniker folks), he’ll nevertheless be tied to the thought that this was all a fluke and that he shouldn’t really be putting forth the performances he did. In my humble opinion, Purdy would have to put together a quarterbacking year for the ages to overcome both his draft pedigree and the fact that the team around him is stacked.

My MVP Picks

Pick 1 – Josh Allen

(+700 to win MVP in 24-25)

I wholeheartedly believe in the Bills’ transformation we saw late in the season, and for Buffalo’s sake, I actually hope for it to bear fruit. Allen has been on the verge to true superstardom for a couple seasons now and he has the talents to reach that rarefied air. I believe in Allen, I believe in the Bills, and if they do manage to pull it all together, then Allen is my best bet to win MVP in 2024-2025.

Pick 2 – C.J. Stroud

(+1200 to win MVP in 24-25)

For a spicier pick for MVP, I’ll gladly opt for Stroud. History is on his side, and he has the eye of the collective NFL press. Should he and the Texans pick up where they left of next year, perhaps with even more reinforcements to help bolster the offence, Stroud will have a running start to winning most valuable player in his sophomore year.

Pick 3 – Joe Burrow

(+900 to win MVP in 24-25)

This one is first and foremost a sentimental pick. Not only do I want to see Burrow play an injury-free season just because he’s that exciting of a talent when he does, but I think were he to, the MVP would be in his grasp. No one cheers for injuries, but I’ll gladly cheer for the opposite, here’s to a Joe Cool season in 2024-2025!