A look At MLB Futures Odds Following The Trade Deadline: Astros, Rangers Make Biggest Moves

The dust has finally settled on the MLB trade deadline which closed at 6 p.m. on Tuesday.

Dozens of deals were made in the weeks, days, and hours leading up to the deadline, but there were only a handful of significant deals that moved the needle from a futures odds perspective.

Here’s a look at a few of the teams that shook things up with the sportsbooks:

Houston Astros

The Astros have very quietly put together another strong campaign to this point and they elected to bring back a familiar face, Justin Verlander, to bolster their starting rotation for another deep playoff run.

Verlander, now 40 years old, won a pair of World Series titles with the Astros (2017, 2022) and captured two Cy Young Awards (2019, 2022) in his first stint with the team from 2017-2022. Houston decided to not pursue re-signing the veteran right-hander this past offseason, so Verlander inked a two-year, $86.7 million deal with the New York Mets, who have had a miserable season despite having baseball’s highest payroll.

The acquisition, which saw the Astros ship two outfield prospects to the Mets for their former ace, shifted Houston’s World Series odds at several sportsbooks: FanDuel (+850 to +700), BetMGM (+800 to +700), and bet365 (+600 to +550).

Houston celebrated the trade with a no-hitter from Framber Valdez on Tuesday night, the 16th no-no in franchise history. Verlander also threw a no-hitter for the Astros in 2019.

Verlander has been incredible in July after a mediocre start to the season by his standards, posting a 4-1 record with 1.69 ERA while holding opponents to a .167 batting average.

The Astros enter play Wednesday just a half-game back of the Texas Rangers for the AL West Division lead and they’re sitting comfortably in the second wild-card spot in the AL.

Texas Rangers

The Rangers haven’t qualified for the postseason since 2016, but they did their best to stock up on arms in an attempt to make it happen this year.

Texas traded for pitchers Max Scherzer, Chris Stratton, and Jordan Montgomery ahead of the deadline in addition to a late-June pickup of fireballer Aroldis Chapman. With Nathan Eovaldi hitting the injured list with a forearm issue, Scherzer, a future Hall of Famer, immediately slots in as the team’s new ace.

Scherzer asked the Mets for a trade after learning the club didn’t intend to compete in 2024, so now the three-time Cy Young Award winner will have a chance for his second World Series title. Following the season-ending elbow injury to Jacob deGrom, Texas needed a front-of-the-rotation arm to fill the void. Now, they have it.

The 39-year-old is having a down year, though, as his velocity, walk rate, exit velocity and hard-hit percentages are all the worst they’ve been since 2015. He also wasn’t a fan of the new pitch clock at the start of the season. But Scherzer has over 133 innings of postseason experience and he’s one of the fiercest competitions you’ll see on the mound.

The addition of Montgomery also shouldn’t be overlooked. He’ll immediately slot in a as a No. 3-type starter and joins the Rangers having recorded a 3.42 ERA (126 ERA+) and a 3.09 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 21 starts.

Following the Scherzer deal, the Rangers went from +1100 to +850 at DraftKings to win the World Series and +100 to -135 to win the AL West Division. At the start of the season, theScore Bet had the Rangers at +4000 to win the World Series; now they’re +800. At PointsBet, Texas had +1000 odds to win it all prior to the trade and now it sits at +800.

TeamCurrent World Series OddsTo Win Division OddsTo Make Playoffs Odds
Houston Astros+550 (+600 on July 31)-135 (-135 on July 31)-500 (-500 on July 31)
Texas Rangers+1100 (+1300 on July 31)-115 (-110 on July 31)-320 (-320 on July 31)
Toronto Blue Jays+1600 (+1600 on July 31)+950 (+750 on July 31)-280 (-270 on July 31)
Odds courtesy of bet365.

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto took advantage of the misfortunes of the St. Louis Cardinals this year by making three separate deals with them this month. Most notably, the Blue Jays acquired flamethrower Jordan Hicks to enhance their bullpen which is especially important considering the back issues of closer Jordan Romano. Hicks can be used in high-leverage situations along with Yimi Garcia and Erik Swanson while Romano is out, and then eventually settle into a setup role down the stretch.

Toronto also poached shortstop Paul DeJong as insurance for the injured Bo Bichette, who is dealing with a knee injury that the Jays are calling not “significant.” Although Bichette is considered day-to-day with the injury, it wouldn’t be surprising if he’s out a few weeks and actually requires a stint on the IL. DeJong’s defensive metrics are some of the best in the league at the position, and he also has some pop in his bat with 13 homers this year.

A couple of weeks prior to the trade deadline, Toronto also dealt for left-hander Genesis Cabrera. He’s already make five appearances out of the bullpen for the Jays and he’s coughed up three runs over six innings of work while striking out five batters.

These under-the-radar moves haven’t impacted Toronto’s futures odds, as the Jays are still +1600 to win the World Series, +950 to win the AL East Division, and -280 to make the playoffs entering play Wednesday.