Grey Cup Betting Preview: Blue Bombers Favoured To Three-Peat As CFL Champions

The Toronto Argonauts will square off with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers in the 109th Grey Cup on Nov. 20 at Mosaic Stadium in Regina, Saskatchewan.

Most sportsbooks opened the game Monday with a spread of Winnipeg -4.5 points, but that number has been bet to Blue Bombers -6 at some books as money continues to pour in on the defending back-to-back Grey Cup champions. The total is set around 48 points at most sportsbooks and hasn’t moved since opening.

This will be the seventh time in the history of Canadian Football that the modern-day incarnations of the two clubs have played for the championship after having met in 1937-38, 1945-47, and 1950. History is on the side of the Argonauts, who have taken all six of these previous Grey Cup meetings by a combined score of 120-25. Winnipeg has a 12-14 all-time record in the Grey Cup; Toronto is 17-6 historically in the big game and last won the Grey Cup in 2017.

Fast forward over 70 years later, and the Blue Bombers are unquestionably the gold standard in Canadian football. Winnipeg is seeking a third straight Grey Cup title, which would put them in the history books alongside Warren Moon and the Edmonton dynasty that won five consecutive championships from 1978-82.

Toronto and Winnipeg already clashed once this season in Week 4, when the Blue Bombers squeaked out a 23-22 victory at BMO Field. The Argos had a chance to tie the game late in the fourth quarter, but kicker Boris Bede missed the extra-point attempt after a late Toronto touchdown strike to tie the game, which would’ve likely sent the contest to overtime. Winnipeg was a 3.5-point favorite in that Week 4 meeting and failed to cover the spread. The teams also played over the total of 43.

All odds in this article are courtesy of bet365.

Toronto Argonauts vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-5.5, 48 over/under)

Weather: Forecasts are calling for frigid temperatures of -10 C (feels like -16 C) by the 6 p.m. ET kickoff with partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light out of the west at 15 km/h. With such frigid conditions expected, there could be some value on betting the under 48 points.

About the Argonauts (12-7 straight up, 10-7-2 against the spread, 10/9 o/u): Toronto battled to a 34-27 victory over the Montreal Alouettes in the Eastern Final to notch its eighth win in its last 10 games overall.

The Argos played a very balanced game. Their offensive line did a spectacular job protecting quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson, who didn’t take a single sack in the affair. In fact, Bethel-Thompson didn’t even have a single pass knocked down by pressure from Montreal’s defence. Toronto will need the same kind of protection for its quarterback this week against a much tougher Winnipeg defensive corps. Bethel-Thompson led the league in passing yards (4,731) and was third in touchdowns (23) during the regular season. He threw for 299 yards and two touchdowns last week without turning the ball over.

The offense also benefitted from the return of veteran running back Andrew Harris from a pectoral injury. He gained 42 yards on nine carries and found the end zone in the first quarter to help balance out the offense. The former Blue Bombers star will be playing in his third consecutive Grey Cup game and he’ll be hungry to show up his former squad after the organization parted ways with him last offseason. He shredded the Bombers for 111 rushing yards on 22 carries back in Week 4.

Defensive lineman Ja’Gared Davis is also a good luck charm. The first-year Argo will be playing in his sixth straight Grey Cup game on Sunday. He played in the championship game for the past two years with the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and for the three Grey Cups before that as a member of the Calgary Stampeders. Davis amassed 36 tackles and seven sacks in 14 games for the Argos during the regular season.

About the Blue Bombers (16-3 SU, 12-7 ATS, 9-10 o/u): Winnipeg has been the best team in the CFL all season long and it didn’t blink an eye last week against Nathan Rourke and the BC Lions. The Blue Bombers grabbed an early lead and never looked back against the high-powered Lions on a frosty IG Field, claiming a 28-20 win to advance to the Grey Cup.

But everyone will be talking about the health of quarterback Zach Collaros after he suffered an ankle injury and had to be removed from the Western Final late in the fourth quarter. He limped off the field, but did appear without crutches during post-game media availability. Early indications are that the injury isn’t serious, and the club doesn’t seem to be concerned about the reigning CFL Most Outstanding Player’s status for the Grey Cup. Still, though, bettors will want to monitor his status throughout the week and see if he fully participates in practice. With sub-zero temperatures expected on Sunday, any limitations on his ailing ankle will be magnified on a slippery and frozen field.

Winnipeg’s vaunted defensive line suffocated the Argos in the only previous meeting between the teams this season, collecting three sacks and five pass knockdowns while forcing a fumble. However, Toronto still had some relative success through the air against the Bombers’ defensive backs, as Bethel-Thompson threw for 314 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Winnipeg has been the wire-to-wire favourite to win the Grey Cup since futures opened this season and is now -240 on the moneyline to claim a third straight title.

Betting trends:

  • The over is 10-1 in the past 11 meetings between the teams.
  • Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last six games away from BMO Field.
  • The over is 3-1 in Toronto’s last four games overall.

Props to consider

Dalton Schoen anytime TD -180 : The Winnipeg receiver is on absolute fire lately, hauling in a touchdown pass in each of his last five games (seven touchdowns total during that span). Collaros loves looking for him in the red zone, but the -180 price is steep. However, he’s priced at a much more enticing +225 to have two or more touchdowns in the game, which could be worth a look.

Andrew Harris anytime TD +130: Harris obviously wants to stick it to his former team, and Toronto is going to hand him the ball and give him every opportunity to do just that. It’ll be cold out, so the Argos may run the ball a little more than they typically would under ideal weather conditions.

Game to go to overtime +950: The last meeting between these teams was decided by a single point, and the game would’ve gone to overtime if not for a botched extra-point attempt. At +950, why not throw a sprinkle on this prop and root for a close and exciting game?