The Buffalo Bills embark on a gauntlet of games that figures to determine their Super Bowl-worthiness starting with, perhaps, the toughest of them all: taking on the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field.
The Bills, who are field-goal underdogs Sunday afternoon at 4:25 ET, follow this game with a trip to Kansas City and a home game vs. the rolling Dallas Cowboys. They finish their season in Miami. Unless they can follow up last week’s dismantling of the New York Jets with a few more impressive performances in the coming weeks, Buffalo’s season could spiral into irrelevance quickly. If the season ended now, Buffalo would not qualify for the post-season.
Bet on Bills vs. Eagles
Philadelphia, which just rallied to beat the Chiefs in Kansas City Monday night, is looking for its fifth straight victory after a shocking early-season loss to the Jets. For them, this game could be a bit of a trap game given the looming showdown with the San Francisco 49ers looming in Week 13.
This matchup is the first-ever between two of the league’s best quarterbacks: Buffalo’s Josh Allen and Philly’s Jalen Hurts.
Bills vs. Eagles odds
| Bills Moneyline Odds | +145 |
| Eagles Moneyline Odds | -165 |
| Spread odds | Eagles -3.0 (-115) |
| Over/Under | 48.5 points (over -110, under -110) |
| Time/Date | Nov. 26, 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | Broadcast: TSN |
All odds courtesy of 
About the Bills (6-5 SU, 4-7 ATS, 3-8 o/u)
As erratic as Allen has been this season, with his 12 interceptions leading the league entering Week 12, he has been impossible to stop when he takes care of the ball. His 22 touchdown passes also lead the league and he has thrown for more than 3,000 yards while adding another seven TDs with his feet.
The firing of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey seemed to have returned some immediate dividends against a strong Jets defence last week. Allen threw three TD passes (though he did extend his streak of games with at least one pick to seven games), including an 81-scoring pass to speedster Khalil Shakir. The outpouring of the Bills’ offence was particularly impressive considering leading receiver Stefon Diggs had just 27 receiving yards, the third-lowest total in his three-year tenure with the Bills.
Buffalo’s defence has begun getting healthy, but it will again have its depth tested, particularly in the secondary, in this game. It will try to make up for injuries to defensive backs with relentless pressure. The Bills lead the NFL in quarterback hits and rank third in sacks.
About the Eagles (9-1 SU, 6-2-2 ATS, 5-5 o/u)
Hurts gets better every season in a league where few quarterbacks improve in such a linear fashion. He is one of the game’s best dual threats, with 2,497 passing yards, 345 rushing yards and 24 total touchdowns, but his primary statistical contribution is wins. The Eagles have won 26 of their last 28 games with Hurts running this formidable offence.
Hurts didn’t have a monster game vs. an excellent Chiefs defence, but he did what he normally does: take care of the football and make key throws when he needed them.
The Eagles, no doubt, will be looking to get one of the NFL’s best playmakers back in the mix this week. A.J. Brown might be the best all-around receiver in the game (if it isn’t Diggs), but he had just one catch for eight yards vs. K.C. and had a miscommunication with Hurts that resulted in a first-half interception. He remains the NFL’s second-leading receiver with 1,013 yards.
The Eagles’ defence is coming off an aggressive performance in Kansas City in which it held Patrick Mahomes and that dangerous unit scoreless in the second half. The key for Philly is its endless rotation of pass rushers who relentlessly badger opposing QBs. Haason Redick, Josh Sweat and Jaylen Carter all have at least four sacks this season.
Betting Mismatch
How things go for Philadelphia near the goal line could determine the outcome of this game, which could determine the direction of the rest of Buffalo’s season. If the Bills don’t shine in red zone defence, they could get badly beaten here.
Philadelphia has racked up wins this season in large part by performing at its best in the red zone, converting 81% of their trips there into touchdowns in the last three games. Buffalo has been stingy, ranking 10th in red-zone efficiency on defence, and that will need to continue here.
In a similar way, Buffalo’s defence needs to get off the field after third downs. The Eagles lead the league in third-down efficiency, converting on 48.2% of their third-down plays. Buffalo isn’t going to be able to entirely contain Hurts and the offence (no one has), but it needs to make big plays when things count most.
Stefon Diggs over 73.5 receiving yards
-110
Key Injuries
Bills TE Dawson Knox (wrist) remains on injured reserve for this game but might return following next week’s bye. CB Dane Jackson (concussion) and S Taylor Rapp (neck) are out. CB Taron Johnson also is in concussion protocol and unlikely to play, while S Micah Hyde (stinger) and CB Cam Lewis (shoulder) are questionable.
For the Eagles, TE Dallas Goedert (forearm) is out, as are DT Milton Williams (concussion), TE Grant Calcaterra (hamstring), WR Quez Watkins (hamstring), and S Justin Evans (knee).
Weather
Conditions won’t be ideal for fans at Lincoln Financial Field with temperatures of about 4 C and, perhaps, some light rain at kickoff, but the rain is supposed to taper off by early afternoon and winds, forecast at about 24 km/h, are expected to be manageable for the offences.
Betting Trends
- The lines opened most places at Philly -3.5 and the total at 47.5, so the money seems to be coming in on Buffalo and the over, probably because of the desperation Buffalo is expected to play with and the huge games Philly has on either side of this game.
- The Eagles are 4-0 at home but have endured some stressful games in their stadium, needing overtime to beat the Commanders and failing to cover against the Minnesota Vikings.
- The Bills and their opponents have combined to score more than 48.5 points just twice this season.
Player Prop Trends
- D’Andre Swift has gone over his receptions total in 16 of his last 22 games. His number is set at 2.5 here (at -140).
- Despite last week’s down game, Brown has gone over his receiving yards prop in six of his last eight games. It’s the highest number on the board here (81.5 at -110).
- Hurts has stayed under his rushing-yards prop in eight of his last 10 games, probably because Philadelphia’s coaches are trying to protect him. His number is 38.5 yards at -110 here.
Wagers to consider
- Buffalo knows what it is up against and should be able to come up with a big effort here. As good as Philadelphia is, asking it to replicate another complete performance on short rest with a huge matchup against San Francisco looming is a big ask. Consider taking the desperate Bills and the points in this one.
- The Eagles are very tough to run against and the Bills haven’t really been consistent at moving the ball on the ground anyway. They will find ways to get the ball to Diggs, knowing that is their best path to winning this game. Expect a huge bounce back from Diggs and for him to eclipse the receiving yards total (73.5 at -110).
