Political Betting Odds 2024/25

Written by: Christian Holmes Fact checked by: Sophie Bryant

Last Updated: October 28, 2024

The rising interest in 2024 political betting odds has significantly contributed to the growing Canadian trend of betting on political events. While not ideal, the talking heads of the world are stealing Michael Stipe’s line by saying it’s the end of the world as we know it (in Western society, anyways). Even when we send the remaining brain cells that we have to the pyre every time we get into a political “debate” on X, we still have the right to speak freely and believe what we want to believe! Not to mention we have the purchasing power to back our candidate of choice, not just at the ballot box or as sponsors of their campaigns but also at the sportsbook.

Additionally, with the upcoming U.S. presidential election, there’s a growing anticipation and excitement in the betting community. So, what’s the state of political betting in 2024? And where can you get in on the action from Canada? Let’s dive in!

Global Political Betting Opportunities

Election betting is gaining global popularity, largely due to the emergence of prediction markets. These markets operate similarly to stock exchanges, but focus on political events. Participants can invest in the likelihood of various political outcomes. Attracting a wide range of participants, from dedicated traders to occasional gamblers and even political experts, this blend of users has contributed significantly to the growing trend of betting on elections.

Another big draw? These markets have shown they can predict political outcomes pretty well. Take the 2020 presidential election, for example. These betting markets nailed their predictions more accurately than traditional polls did, boosting their reputation.

However, it’s not all smooth sailing. There are rules and concerns about the impact of betting on the integrity of elections. Despite these hurdles, the 2020 presidential election saw a surge in betting, drawing record wagers and keen interest from bookmakers.

As with major sports betting in Canada, the best political betting sites are quick to open lines and update them as they stay in touch with every major election event happening.

How to Read Political Betting Odds

Alright, so let’s say former President Donald Trump’s odds are -125 to win the 2024 election. The “-” indicates that you would have to pay $125 to make $100 in profit. Let’s say Vice President Kamala Harris is priced at +105. The “+” means you would get $105 back on a $100 wager.

If you’d like to convert the betting odds into implied probabilities, you can use our Betting Odds Calculator. It saves you time by not having to do the math.

We encourage you to keep checking back for up-to-date election betting odds as the campaign trails heat up here at home and around the world.

Election Betting Odds at BET99

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Updated US Presidential Election Odds

US political odds are always hard to grasp. Sportsbooks and the market react to everything, including polling changes, assassination attempts, and poor performances at nationally televised debates.

The best time to bet on your candidate of choice is when they hit a “rough patch.” Since the US media is polarized (and somewhat forgetting of past grievances), what was a big deal yesterday probably won’t matter as much as it should today or tomorrow. Almost always, you’ll be able to snag some good value.

Speaking of value, let’s look at the current US Presidential Election betting odds (courtesy of bet365):

Looking Back at the 2020 US Election

In 2024, Biden received the most votes ever for a US president, and there are a few reasons why. One big factor was the massive voter turnout – the highest in over a century with 66% of eligible adults voting. Biden managed to attract a diverse group of voters, including those living in cities, new voters, and some who hadn’t voted in recent elections. The COVID-19 pandemic also played a significant role. Many people preferred Biden’s approach to handling the pandemic over Trump’s, which influenced their vote.

It’s worth noting Donald Trump’s unique situation in the popular vote. He lost the popular vote in both 2016 and 2020, a rare occurrence for a presidential candidate. In 2016, he lost it to Hillary Clinton and in 2020 to Biden, by over 7 million votes. Yet, he still won the presidency in 2016 due to the electoral college system, which sparked debates about its fairness. Despite losing the popular vote, Trump managed to attract many new voters in 2020, showing continued support for his political style.

The 2020 election also highlighted Trump’s ability to draw in new voters, underscoring the persistent appeal of his political brand. This scenario raises critical questions about the future of American politics, especially considering the recent swing towards right-wing ideologies across many Western nations. Observers are closely watching to see if the Democratic Party can counter another potential surge from Trump’s MAGA Republicans in upcoming elections.

Canadian Election Odds

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces uncertain odds in the upcoming 2025 Canadian election. Recent polls show a significant dip in his popularity, with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre gaining a considerable lead. According to Abacus Data, if elections were held today, the Trudeau Liberals could suffer a major defeat, with the Conservatives projected to win a majority in the House of Commons.

Bloomberg reports even Trudeau’s own party members are suggesting he step down, given the Liberals’ lagging position in the polls. This sentiment is echoed by Nanos, which shows the Liberals trailing in ballot tracking against the Conservatives. The Writ also indicates Poilievre’s Conservatives are the likely favorites to win the election. Overall, Trudeau’s chances for re-election appear increasingly doubtful as the Conservative Party holds significant leads.

For further insights into the latest Canadian election odds, be sure to explore our dedicated page.

Here are the current Canadian winning party betting odds (courtesy of bet365):

European Election Odds

In the wake of Brexit, the focus has shifted to which country might be next to leave the European Union. Currently, Italy is leading in the odds, reflecting significant speculation about their potential EU exit. Greece follows, with its economic challenges influencing its EU membership stance.

Interestingly, the most favored outcome is that no country will exit the EU by the end of 2025, indicated by a -800 probability. These odds, constantly changing with political and public sentiment, underscore the unpredictable nature of European politics.

Ireland General Election Odds

The next Irish general election, which will decide the members of the 34th Dáil, Ireland’s lower parliamentary house, is officially expected by March 2025. However, Irish general election odds and public opinion suggest it might happen sooner, possibly in 2024. This speculation is fueled by factors like the economic slowdown and the consequent strain on tax revenues. Betting trends indicate increasing chances of the election being called in the first half of 2025.

Australia Election Odds

When it comes to Australian election odds, the Labor party is looking pretty strong for the upcoming state and federal elections. With Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at the helm, the party has been showing impressive performances nationwide. Although the Coalition parties saw a boost in optimism following the “The Voice” referendum, making the race closer, Labor still leads the predictions. As for the 2025 federal election, betting odds favor Labor to clinch the win. Moreover, major bookmakers are leaning towards Anthony Albanese continuing as Australia’s prime minister.

Ireland General Election Odds

The next Irish general election, which will decide the members of the 34th Dáil, Ireland’s lower parliamentary house, is officially expected by March 2025. However, Irish general election odds and public opinion suggest it might happen sooner, possibly in early 2024. This speculation is fueled by factors like the economic slowdown and the consequent strain on tax revenues. Betting trends indicate increasing chances of the election being called in the first half of 2024.

Interestingly, a survey by the Irish Business Post/Red C revealed that nearly half of the respondents (47%) prefer an election in 2024 rather than 2025. In terms of outcomes, Sinn Féin, the primary opposition party, is currently the favorite to win, leading in various opinion polls. This betting angle adds an intriguing layer to the anticipation surrounding the election.

Irish general election odds via bet365 will be updated as they become available.

Year Of Next Irish General Election
2023	TBA
2024	TBA
2025	TBA

Mairead McGuinness, a member of the Fine Gael party and currently serving as the European Commissioner for Financial Stability, Financial Services, and the Capital Markets Union, is seen as the likely next President of Ireland. With her impressive background, including being the longest-serving MEP and the First Vice-President of the European Parliament, McGuinness stands out as a strong candidate. The latest betting odds suggest she’s the frontrunner for the 2025 presidential election, with odds at +220. Her experience and track record make her a notable figure in the race for presidency.

Next President of Ireland

TBA

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Political Odds Betting Tips

Despite the differences between politics and sports, the betting principles for both remain similar. Keep in mind these four simple tips before committing to any sportsbook.

1. Don’t Bet with Emotions: An obvious tip, but one that most casual bettors fail to follow. As humans, we are emotional and can get triggered by emotions like fear and excitement. To minimize these occurrences, avoid betting on a) candidates you love; and b) candidates you hate. Your judgment will be clouded. Instead, do this:

2. Rely on Stats and Hard Data: Yet another basic principle that most players overlook. Yes, numbers only tell half the story, but it is a far more objective gauge than simple “gut feeling”. Reading up on the stats supporting candidates and parties can help you make a more informed choice. But also keep this in mind:

3. Check your Sources: What the 2016 election proved was that general news media sources can be terrible sources when predicting polls. Verify the sources you use to ensure they aren’t biased towards a political perspective, are legitimate, and are run by credible people. And lastly:

4. Have a Budget: Called the “Unit System”, it is best to allocate percentages (units) of your bankroll when it comes to betting. A unit usually means one percent of your total bankroll. If you have $1,000 deposited, a unit of this is $10 (1%). Bet between one unit to five for most bets depending on the value of the odds.