The rising interest in 2024 election odds has significantly contributed to the growing Canadian trend of betting on political events. This surge is driven by an evolving interest in diverse political ideologies and movements. The landscape features a mix of growing support for certain viewpoints and a heightened critique of the current leadership, a trend that became more pronounced during the pandemic.
This dynamic environment has enhanced the appeal of political betting, leading many individuals to explore betting sites and the best betting apps in Canada for their political wagers.
Additionally, with the upcoming U.S. presidential election, there’s a growing anticipation and excitement in the betting community. This event, attracting global attention, offers a unique opportunity for bettors to engage with international political dynamics, further broadening the scope and interest in political betting.
The election odds are not available in Canada at the moment. We will update these odds as they become available.
2024 U.S. Election:
Winning Party
TBA
Before the 2020 US election, bettors were placing their money on Joe Biden far more than Donald Trump. In June 2020, the betting odds suggested Biden had a better chance of winning, with a 55.8% probability compared to Trump’s 36.2%. On Election Day itself, Biden’s chances even shot up to nearly 70% at one point. After the votes were cast, most betting sites in Canada were quite confident in Biden’s win, giving him an 86% chance. For example, the UK betting company Betfair was offering 1-to-6 odds on Biden winning.
Why did Biden receive the most votes ever for a US president? There are a few reasons. One big factor was the massive voter turnout – the highest in over a century with 66% of eligible adults voting. Biden managed to attract a diverse group of voters, including those living in cities, new voters, and some who hadn’t voted in recent elections. The COVID-19 pandemic also played a significant role. Many people preferred Biden’s approach to handling the pandemic over Trump’s, which influenced their vote.
It’s worth noting Donald Trump’s unique situation in the popular vote. He lost the popular vote in both 2016 and 2020, a rare occurrence for a presidential candidate. In 2016, he lost it to Hillary Clinton and in 2020 to Biden, by over 7 million votes. Yet, he still won the presidency in 2016 due to the electoral college system, which sparked debates about its fairness. Despite losing the popular vote, Trump managed to attract many new voters in 2020, showing continued support for his political style.
The 2020 election also highlighted Trump’s ability to draw in new voters, underscoring the persistent appeal of his political brand. This scenario raises critical questions about the future of American politics, especially considering the recent swing towards right-wing ideologies across many Western nations. Observers are closely watching to see if the Democratic Party can counter another potential surge from Trump’s MAGA Republicans in upcoming elections.
2024 U.S. Presidential Election Odds
Who Is The Favourite To Be The Next U.S. President?
According to current betting odds, former President Donald Trump is the frontrunner to win the next US presidential election. His odds are typically in the range of +150 to +170. Right on his heels is President Joe Biden, with odds fluctuating between +138 and +230. While other figures like Michelle Obama, Gavin Newsom, and Nikki Haley are in the mix, they don’t currently match the favorable odds seen for Trump and Biden.
As per the most recent data, the leading candidates and their corresponding implied odds are as follows:
We will update these odds as they become available.
| Candidate |  | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | TBA | Coming soon |
| Joe Biden | TBA | Coming soon |
| Gavin Newsom | TBA | Coming soon |
| Nikki Haley | TBA | Coming soon |
| Michelle Obama | TBA | Coming soon |
| Robert Kennedy Jr. | TBA | Coming soon |
These 2024 U.S. election odds position former President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden as primary contenders, with Trump marginally leading as the favored candidate to win the election. However, it’s essential to recognize that these odds are not static and are susceptible to change as the election nears. Influencing factors include political developments, shifts in public opinion, and the effectiveness of campaign strategies.
It is crucial to understand that these odds, derived from betting markets, do not necessarily correlate with the actual likelihood of a candidate’s victory. Instead, they offer insights into the perceptions of bettors regarding each candidate’s chances.
Donald Trump Election Odds
As the 2024 election approaches, the betting world and public opinion are abuzz with one key question: What are the chances of Donald Trump facing criminal charges before the big race? Current developments and ongoing legal cases have thrust this issue into the limelight, turning it into a hot topic for speculators and voters alike.
To Win 2024 Republican Party Nomination:
TBA
A recent NBC News poll has shed light on the electorate’s mindset. An eye-opening 62% of voters express major or moderate concerns regarding Trump’s potential indictments. On the flip side, 37% seem less perturbed, having minor or no concerns. These figures paint a clear picture of an electorate deeply divided and increasingly anxious about the possible legal entanglements of the former President.
In a significant move, Fulton County prosecutors have earmarked August 2024 as a potential start date for Trump’s trial. This timeline suggests that Trump’s legal woes could spill over into the election season, adding a layer of complexity to his campaign.
Trump’s battle extends to New York, where he faces charges related to a 2016 hush-money payment. With the trial set for March 2024, it’s clear that these legal issues are far from over and could have a direct impact on the election narrative.
Amidst the legal whirlwind, betting odds offer a different perspective. Currently, Trump stands at a 35% chance of reclaiming the presidency in 2024. This figure suggests that, despite the legal hurdles, he remains a strong player in the presidential race.
While it’s challenging to pin down the exact odds of Trump facing criminal charges before the 2024 election, the blend of legal dramas, public concern, and betting odds highlights this as a dynamic and crucial aspect of the upcoming election. The situation is fluid, and the stakes are high, making it a critical storyline to follow as the election draws nearer.
For comprehensive coverage and the latest updates on Trump odds, check out our dedicated US election odds page. Additionally, you can scroll down for an in-depth look at the best election odds available in Canada.
Canadian Election Odds
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces uncertain odds in the upcoming 2025 Canadian election. Recent polls show a significant dip in his popularity, with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre gaining a considerable lead. According to Abacus Data, if elections were held today, the Trudeau Liberals could suffer a major defeat, with the Conservatives projected to win a majority in the House of Commons.
Bloomberg reports even Trudeau’s own party members are suggesting he step down, given the Liberals’ lagging position in the polls. This sentiment is echoed by Nanos, which shows the Liberals trailing in ballot tracking against the Conservatives. The Writ also indicates Poilievre’s Conservatives are the likely favorites to win the election. Overall, Trudeau’s chances for re-election appear increasingly doubtful as the Conservative Party holds significant leads.
For further insights into the latest Canadian election odds, be sure to explore our dedicated page.
UK Election Odds
In the world of UK politics, the betting markets are favoring the Labour Party over the Conservatives as the next general election approaches. According to pollsters, Labour is leading with odds of -800 for the most seats, while the Conservatives are at +600.
Reports also suggest the Labour Party’s odds for a majority win sit at a record low of -300, signaling strong bettor confidence in their victory.
With the UK Tories facing challenges and the potential for a change in leadership, it seems likely that Rishi Sunak might be replaced as both the Prime Minister and the party leader. In this context, Kemi Badenoch has emerged as a strong candidate to lead the Conservative Party, currently leading the betting odds at +350, an implied probability of 22.2%
Badenoch’s notable performance at the party’s annual conference and her popularity among the party members have played a significant role in her emerging as a favorite. As the next general election, expected next year, approaches, the discussion about Sunak’s potential successor is gaining momentum.
Next UK Conservative Party Leader
TBA
For extensive coverage and the latest information on UK Politics odds, please visit our dedicated page.
Scotland Independence Odds
The Scottish referendum is another hot topic in the world of political betting. The odds are evenly poised at -120 for both “Yes” and “No” to independence, reflecting a tight and unpredictable race. A recent poll in September 2023 showed 53% of Scots leaning against independence, adding to the suspense.
European Election Odds
In the wake of Brexit, the focus has shifted to which country might be next to leave the European Union. Currently, Italy is leading in the odds, reflecting significant speculation about their potential EU exit. Greece follows, with its economic challenges influencing its EU membership stance.
Interestingly, the most favored outcome is that no country will exit the EU by the end of 2025, indicated by a -800 probability. These odds, constantly changing with political and public sentiment, underscore the unpredictable nature of European politics.
Ireland General Election Odds
The next Irish general election, which will decide the members of the 34th Dáil, Ireland’s lower parliamentary house, is officially expected by March 2025. However, Irish general election odds and public opinion suggest it might happen sooner, possibly in early 2024. This speculation is fueled by factors like the economic slowdown and the consequent strain on tax revenues. Betting trends indicate increasing chances of the election being called in the first half of 2024.
Interestingly, a survey by the Irish Business Post/Red C revealed that nearly half of the respondents (47%) prefer an election in 2024 rather than 2025. In terms of outcomes, Sinn Féin, the primary opposition party, is currently the favorite to win, leading in various opinion polls. This betting angle adds an intriguing layer to the anticipation surrounding the election.
Irish general election odds via bet365 will be updated as they become available.
| Year Of Next Irish General Election |  |
|---|---|
| 2023 | TBA |
| 2024 | TBA |
| 2025 | TBA |
Mairead McGuinness, a member of the Fine Gael party and currently serving as the European Commissioner for Financial Stability, Financial Services, and the Capital Markets Union, is seen as the likely next President of Ireland. With her impressive background, including being the longest-serving MEP and the First Vice-President of the European Parliament, McGuinness stands out as a strong candidate. The latest betting odds suggest she’s the frontrunner for the 2025 presidential election, with odds at +220. Her experience and track record make her a notable figure in the race for presidency.
Next President of Ireland
TBA
Ukraine Election Odds
The next presidential election in Ukraine is scheduled for March 31, 2024, according to the nation’s constitution. However, the current circumstances are complex, with Ukraine facing significant challenges due to the Russian invasion under President Zelensky’s leadership. The imposition of martial law has resulted in the postponement of the elections for now. President Zelensky remains committed to ensuring that the elections, whenever they occur, are conducted in a manner that is free, fair, and safe – a daunting challenge in the midst of conflict. He is open to the possibility of conducting elections during wartime, contingent upon receiving financial assistance from Western allies and the necessary legislative support, though this remains a complicated issue.
Amidst these challenges and the ongoing conflict, betting markets are indicating strong confidence in President Zelensky’s chances for re-election. He currently stands as a -166 favorite on the Ukraine election odds board. This suggests that despite the war and uncertainties surrounding the timing of the election, there is a substantial belief in President Zelensky’s likelihood of winning another term in office.
Ukraine election odds via bet365 will be updated as they become available.
| Winner of Next Ukraine Presidential Election | |
|---|---|
| Volodymyr Zelensky | TBA |
| Valeriy Zaluzhnyi | TBA |
| Petro Poroshenko | TBA |
Australia Election Odds
When it comes to Australian election odds, the Labor party is looking pretty strong for the upcoming state and federal elections. With Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at the helm, the party has been showing impressive performances nationwide. Although the Coalition parties saw a boost in optimism following the “The Voice” referendum, making the race closer, Labor still leads the predictions. As for the 2025 federal election, betting odds favor Labor to clinch the win. Moreover, major bookmakers are leaning towards Anthony Albanese continuing as Australia’s prime minister.
To Win Next Australian Federal Election
TBA
Global Political Betting Opportunities
Election betting is gaining global popularity, largely due to the emergence of prediction markets. These markets operate similarly to stock exchanges, but focus on political events. Participants can invest in the likelihood of various political outcomes. Attracting a wide range of participants, from dedicated traders to occasional gamblers and even political experts, this blend of users has contributed significantly to the growing trend of betting on elections.
Another big draw? These markets have shown they can predict political outcomes pretty well. Take the 2020 presidential election, for example. These betting markets nailed their predictions more accurately than traditional polls did, boosting their reputation.
However, it’s not all smooth sailing. There are rules and concerns about the impact of betting on the integrity of elections. Despite these hurdles, the 2020 presidential election saw a surge in betting, drawing record wagers and keen interest from bookmakers.
As with major sports betting in Canada, the best political betting sites are quick to open lines and update them as they stay in touch with every major election event happening.
How to Read Election Odds
If we hadn’t hammered the point home yet, you can absolutely bet on politics. How to bet on politics? First, you will need to sign up for some of these best online sports betting websites. It is simple. Most accept most legal forms of payment including credit cards. And the 24/7 customer service helps you along the way.
Reading political odds isn’t any different than betting odds in general. The odds manifest as three formats:
- Moneyline: -145, +125
- Decimal: 1.55, 2.45
- Fractional: 1/4, 3/1
These odds are a translation of each candidate or team’s probability of winning. A favourite has a higher probability of success, hence you will have to pay more to win less. While an underdog has a lower chance of winning, hence you will win more than you bet.
Most books offer you the choice of converting these odds into something easier.
See below the top sportsbooks where you can wager online and choose the best one for you:
Political Odds Betting Tips
Despite the differences between politics and sports, the betting principles for both remain similar. Keep in mind these four simple tips before committing to any sportsbook.
1. Don’t Bet with Emotions: An obvious tip, but one that most casual bettors fail to follow. As humans, we are emotional and can get triggered by emotions like fear and excitement. To minimize these occurrences, avoid betting on a) candidates you love; and b) candidates you hate. Your judgment will be clouded. Instead, do this:
2. Rely on Stats and Hard Data: Yet another basic principle that most players overlook. Yes, numbers only tell half the story, but it is a far more objective gauge than simple “gut feeling”. Reading up on the stats supporting candidates and parties can help you make a more informed choice. But also keep this in mind:
3. Check your Sources: What the 2016 election proved was that general news media sources can be terrible sources when predicting polls. Verify the sources you use to ensure they aren’t biased towards a political perspective, are legitimate, and are run by credible people. And lastly:
4. Have a Budget: Called the “Unit System”, it is best to allocate percentages (units) of your bankroll when it comes to betting. A unit usually means one percent of your total bankroll. If you have $1,000 deposited, a unit of this is $10 (1%). Bet between one unit to five for most bets depending on the value of the odds.
Political betting FAQ
Political betting involves wagering on the outcome of politics, such as the results of elections, referendums and even impeachment.
Betting on politics is similar to betting on any futures market. For example, in the Canadian election, you would bet on what party you think will win the election.
Futures markets are the most common type of betting market available on the outcome of politics.
Canadians can bet on politics through any of our partners’ websites.
Political betting opens when elections are announced and parties have determined their candidates running.
Yes, betting on politics online is legal in Canada.
Yes, betting on what party will win the Canadian election is available for betting online. Odds open a few months before the election, once parties are set with their leaders and where they have constituents running.
Yes, Canadians can bet on the outcome of American politics. The most bet on American politics is who will win the presidency.
Yes, betting on politics involves risk. While, there is plenty of polling information available, predicting political outcomes, there is always a chance for inaccuracy in the data or opinions to change over time.
Any legal resident of Canada, age 18 or older is able to bet on politics.
