Arguably the tightest group at the World Cup will most likely come down to the final round of matches, and the game between Senegal and Colombia will go a long way in determining which nations emerge from Group H. With Japan and Poland kicking off at the same time, anything is possible during these crucial last 90 minutes.
The Colombians will enter this match as the favourite, which is unsurprising considering that they outrank their opponents and also have a perfect record against African nations at the World Cup. They boast a number of high profile stars, most notably Bayern Munich’s James Rodriguez and Monaco star Radamel Falcao, and Colombia were our initial pick to top this group.
Yet Senegal are a good side and will certainly prove to be a tough opponent for Colombia. Star winger Sadio Mane will lead the side in attack, and we rate them highly – they were our initial pick to finish Group H in second place.
There is a small chance that both teams can reach the second round. In the event of a draw and a Poland win over Japan, Senegal would move to 5 points and top the group, while Colombia would move ahead of Japan into second spot.
A Colombia win would end Senegal’s run unless Poland can beat the Japanese by a greater number of goals, while a Senegal victory would see them almost certain to top the group and Colombia would be eliminated.
Senegal have shown plenty of potency in front of goal during this tournament, so we think they are a good chance of scoring against the Colombians. The South Americans though looked in sublime form against Poland, and are the pick for a victory here.
Senegal are great value as outsiders in this match. The +332 on offer is indicative of a team that are certainly a chance of victory, and this is backed up by the fact that Colombia start at just below evens, paying -122. The draw is perhaps the most tempting option, priced at +260, and given the results that Spain and Portugal endured in their final matches it’s not unforeseeable to expect another here.
Yet we believe that Colombia need to win to progress and will do so simply because they are the superior team. Our predicted score is 2-1.