Peru vs Denmark World Cup 2018
Both Denmark and Peru needed to overcome a play-off to reach the 2018 World Cup, and the extra effort required is indicative of the fact that these two nations are on the fringe of the world’s top soccer powers.
Qualification would have been especially sweet for the Peruvians, who progressed via the narrowest of margins. A draw in their final CONMEBOL group match saw them surpass Chile by just two goals, and their defeat of New Zealand in the play-off sparked wild scenes in Lima as the nation returned to the World Cup after a 36 year absence.
In essence this is a match that could determine who finishes second in the group, and arguably it is more important for Peru considering they have the unenviable task of facing France in their second game. If Denmark can win the opener, they would only need to beat Australia to secure progression without even needing to consider their clash with the French.
The matchup is intriguing for two reasons. Firstly, the nations have never come up against each other so there will likely be caution in the way the pair play. Secondly, both teams love to utilise possession, so it will be interesting to see which team holds the ascendency when the match gets underway.
There are also some odd trends when you look at the goal-scoring habits of these teams. Denmark like to take time to build into a match, and are especially potent in the middle of the first half and the last fifteen minutes. Peru score few goals in the first half of matches and tend to strike late – they score the vast majority of their goals in the last third of the match.
Although the sides are reasonably well matched, Denmark will enter this match as the favourite, which we imagine has a lot to do with the form of midfielder Christian Eriksen. The Tottenham Hotspur star has been on another level this season, and national manager Age Hareide commented in March that his best player exceeds the quality found in the midfield of Real Madrid or Barcelona.
A fit and firing Eriksen could be the difference here, and we love the generous odds available for the Danes – you can jump on for as much as +132. We’re going to go with a 2-1 victory to the Europeans, with Peru to score late to set up a tense finish.
Alternatively, you can select Peru for +220 or take the draw at +217
Peru vs Denmark Preview
In case you missed it, veteran striker Paolo Guerrero is eligible for the World Cup despite being found guilty of taking a banned substance. He will be suspended for every lead up match, so it will be very interesting to see whether manager Ricardo Gareca chooses to throw him straight back into the side. It’s never easy to sync with teammates, although the lift he will bring to the team (and nation) is probably worth the risk.
If he does start, or even appears off the bench, it is worth placing a goal-scoring bet on the Flamengo striker. While a first goal scorer bet may be a stretch, you will still receive decent odds for an any time scorer wager.
Likewise, Christian Eriksen is 100% worth a bet in either goal-scoring market. He finished the qualification campaign with 11 goals in 12 matches, behind only Robert Lewandowski and Cristiano Ronaldo in the lead up to the World Cup. He also boasts 11 goals and 10 assists across all competitions at club level.
Thomas Delaney is a great foil for Eriksen in the centre of the park, and is one of the few players that can rival the Spurs star at set pieces. He is also known for his goal-scoring ability, having recorded hat-tricks in the Bundesliga and for his country, so he would be the other top option for a goal-scoring wager.
Head to Head Alternatives
The head to head odds provide great value regardless of who you prefer in this match, although there are always more ways to make money, and more effective ways to increase your output.
For this match specifically, we like the half-time/full-time market. Our prediction for the match is for Denmark to score midway through the first half and once again in the second half to earn a 2-1 victory. If Denmark lead at half-time and win the match, you would win your bet at odds of +315.
Similarly, if you want to stick with this prediction, you would get +289 in the ‘team to score in both halves’ market.
The ‘will both teams score’ market is an almost dead even split between the yes and no. Our prediction is that Peru will get a goal in this match, which would give you a -105 payout, although the ‘no’ option is just as valuable, listed at -130.
A 2-1 scoreline to Denmark will fetch +800 in the correct score market, while the 1-1 draw appears to be the favoured option among the sportsbooks here (+450).
Finally, you can double up on your bet by matching the game result and the total number of goals. The best option here is the Denmark and over +2.5 goals which will pay out at +254, while you can also profit from a more conservative option by selecting Denmark and over +1.5 goals at +201.
Group C Betting Odds