Japan vs Poland Odds

Japan vs Poland Stats

Japan vs Poland World Cup 2018

Poland are the favourites to win their final match against Japan, although there is certainly a case for both teams here. Group H is perhaps the most difficult to pick of all eight pools and the only one that doesn’t feature a former winner, meaning both these teams, along with Senegal and Colombia, are a chance of advancing to the second round.

The Europeans came into this group as the top seed and will fancy themselves to get all three points against Japan, who are ranked more than fifty places below them in the FIFA standings. Yet despite the gulf there isn’t a huge disparity in the initial odds. Poland start at -111, while Japan are paying +313 and the draw is available at +244. 

Our pre-tournament prediction for Group H sees Poland struggle against the Colombians and Senegalese, meaning a win is absolutely essential for the Europeans here. Japan too will have failed against both nations, and even a win may not save them for an early exit from the tournament. 

Context is always a factor in the third group stage matches. If Japan are only playing for pride, they may prove to be a thorn in the side of a Polish team seeking a necessary victory, although if both teams are still in with a chance of progression then you would have to go with Poland simply because they are the better team on paper.

Poland have a fantastic record against Asian nations, although Japan’s record against Europeans at the World Cup is also notable. Poland certainly don’t boast a lineup like France, Spain or Germany, which will give Japan plenty of hope. 

It’s a much tougher match to pick than most would have you believe. Japan will be set up defensively and look to stifle out any possible Robert Lewandowski-led attacks. We actually believe the sides will finish level here and are predicting a frustrating 0-0 stalemate that will see both sides eliminated from the tournament.

Japan vs Poland Game Info

  • 1

    When: Thursday, Jun 28 (10am ET)

  • 2

    Where: Volgograd Arena, Volgograd

  • 3

    TV: FOX, Telemundo*

Japan vs Poland Betting Tips

Poland are actually very good value in this match, although it will take plenty of bravado to stick with the Europeans. Reality may make a fool of us, but if our prediction is on point it is going to be a disappointing tournament for the Poles.


The draw is available for +244 and is great value in the head to head market, although if you’re not convinced then perhaps the other markets are more favourable.

A defensive Japanese side and a Poland side short on confidence may cause this match to feature few goals. If that is the case, the best market is the over/under line, which is split at +2.5 goals. If you think the result will feature less that three goals in total, the -128 on offer for the under is the way to go.

If you are happy with the under, there’s little point in just betting that there will be less than 2.5 goals in the match. The smart pick would be to utilise the matchbet and totals market, allowing you to parlay the under +2.5 into a draw. This would give you slightly higher odds (+295) and will cover both the 0-0 and 1-1 results.

If you disagree and think Poland are going to win, you have the same options. Poland and under +2.5 goals is paying +294, while Poland and over +2.5 goals is actually at shorter odds, paying +192.

Finally, there’s always the correct score market for those who want to really press for a large payout. Our prediction of 0-0 is offering +815, while the 1-1 draw is actually one of the favoured results, priced at +494. Alternatively, Poland 1-0 is paying +548 and Poland 2-0 is available for +703.