Germany vs Mexico World Cup 2018
Group F is probably the closest thing to a ‘Group of Death’ at this year’s World Cup, and it will be interesting to see whether Mexico can keep their impressive streak alive. Since 1986, Mexico have made it to the Round of 16 at every World Cup except the 1990 event which they were banned from participating in.
In order to even contemplate the continuation of this feat they will need to limit the damage against a rampant German side that continues to brush aside nations on their path to glory. Germany have never finished outside the top-ten at a World Cup, and have only been eliminated from the group stage once in eighteen attempts. Oh, and they’re defending champions. This team has some serious pedigree.
But it’s not just history that’s on the German’s side. Their recent form in competitive matches has been nothing short of breathtaking. After their exit in the 2016 European Championships, many believed Joachim Low’s impressive managerial reign would end. Nope. Germany responded brilliantly to win 14 of their 15 competitive matches (one draw) and look in ominous touch ahead of this fixture.
Mexico too blitzed the competition in their qualification campaign, rarely looking troubled as they lost just two of their 18 matches. The nation’s greatest strength right now is their youth – they have been a regular in the top four of the U17 World Cup over the last decade, and there are a number of players filtering through to the senior setup.
The problem for the Mexicans is that Germany are producing youth as well, and their quality is astonishing. At the 2017 Confederations Cup, Germany rested pretty much every big name they had and instead played what was close to an Under 23 squad. They still won the tournament, brushing aside Australia, Cameroon, Chile and Mexico themselves.
So do Mexico have any chance of causing an upset here? It’s hard to see it happening. Mexico have shown great promise in their friendlies, but against a team like Germany you can only ever hope to come close. A draw would be the best result they could hope for.
Germany enter as favourites although they still offer a degree of value. They are certainly our pick at -234, while you can take Mexico at +630 and the draw at +349.
We think Mexico will put up a fight, although a 2-0 win to the Germans is our prediction for this match.
Germany vs Mexico Preview
Germany have talented players all over the pitch and depth in every position. This however does pose a problem when looking at placing a wager in a player-related market. There’s no doubt that Germany will score a goal in this match (and possibly two, three or four), but naming the player most likely to do so is often difficult.
The talisman of the side in the front third is Thomas Muller, and you can bet that he will be one of the first players picked. He scored five goals at the 2014 World Cup and already has 38 for his country. He is a great option in either of the first goal scorer or any time goal scorer markets.
Toni Kroos may be more likely to set up goals, yet he has shown that he is just as capable of scoring in big matches for Real Madrid and his country. He is another name to consider, although to be honest the German squad at present could score from almost anywhere on the park. Mario Gomez is a threat. Timo Werner may get an opportunity off the bench. Germany right now are a scary proposition, so much so that they were able to leave Leroy Sane out of the squad.
Mexico too have some quality attacking options, but we can’t see them scoring a goal in this match. If you were to pick a player from the Mexican side to be the first goal scorer, the most likely candidate would be Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez.
Perhaps the best option here would be to pick Mexico with a handicap. For example, if you think Mexico will come within two goals of the defending champions, you could place a bet on ‘Mexico +2.5’ Even if they lose by two goals, this bet would still pay.
Head to Head Alternatives
We think Germany are at reasonable value in the head to head market, although if you’re looking for odds that will make you more than -234 there are some great alternatives to consider.
The most obvious one here is the ‘which teams will score?’ market. We are very confident that Mexico will fail to trouble the German backline in this match, and would be throwing our money behind the ‘Germany only’ option, which is paying a juicy +121.
Similarly, you will get -141 in the ‘will both teams score?’ market if you select ‘no’.
Germany usually don’t take too long to get going in their World Cup matches, and we think they are a great chance of breaking down the Mexicans prior to half-time. If that is the case, and Germany lead at the interval and win the match, then you would win a bet in the half-time/full-time doubles market. The Germany/Germany option is paying +122.
Further to this point, if you think Germany will score at least one goal in each half, there’s also a market for that! Select the ‘home team to score in both halves’ market and select ‘yes’ which is paying +137.
Finally, if you really want a challenge, try the correct score market. The favourites are 1-0 and 2-0 to Germany, which are paying +486 and +501 respectively. Interestingly, the most common scoreline involving the Germans across the last two World Cups has been 4-0 – why not try a bet on this score at +1700?
Group F Betting Odds