Colombia vs England World Cup 2018
The final match of the Round of 16 sees Colombia face England, and the winner will fancy themselves going a long way in this tournament as this side of the draw is definitely the weaker of the two. For this very reason, all the talk in England is of the cup ‘coming home’, although they must be careful not to look too far ahead as they face a tricky South American opponent.
England are an interesting prospect. They struggled to break down Tunisia before Harry Kane came to their aid late in their opening match, while they looked sensational against Panama, albeit a team that is ranked miles below them and finished last in the tournament. Not much can be said about their performance against Belgium, as both teams rested the majority of their stars.
Colombia’s current lineup is possibly their best in a number of decades, proven by their recent WC performances. The CONMEBOL team have won six of their last eight WC matches, losing only to Brazil in the quarter-finals of last year’s tournament and Japan in their first match of 2018 (although being reduced to ten men in the fourth minute didn’t help).
Interestingly, Colombia destroyed a disappointing Polish side, yet barely defeated Senegal in their final match. Perhaps this was due to James Rodriguez’s early departure, and this is a key narrative leading into this game. If James can’t recover from injury, you would think that England’s first choice team would be too good, especially considering the likes of Harry Kane, Raheem Sterling and Jesse Lingard have had their feet up for a week.
Dele Alli is England’s only major injury concern, although his absence was not missed against Panama. True, Colombia are a much better team, although it may be unwise to rush him back.
The odds are in favour of England in this match, and they will start at +102. Colombia are outsiders at +288, while the draw is quite short and will be on offer for +225.
There’s certainly a case of the draw here, as the market is based on the score at the end of 90 minutes, although we weren’t impressed by Colombia in their final match and think England at full strength can bring home the victory. With the likes of Radamel Falcao, Colombia are a good chance to score against an England side that has conceded in all three matches, so we’re going with 2-1 as the final score.
Colombia vs England Preview
Colombia vs England will kickoff at 2pm ET on Tuesday, July 3 and will be played at Otkrytie Arena in Moscow.
Colombia Likely Starting XI
- David Ospina
- Santiago Arias, Yerry Mina, Davinson Sanchez, Johan Mohica
- Carlos Sanchez, Mateus Uribe
- Juan Cuadrado, Juan Quintero, Luis Muriel
- Radamel Falcao
We are predicting that James Rodriguez will be on the bench for this match, as a calf injury continues to bother the 2014 talisman and golden boot winner. We have Luis Muriel over Jose Izquierdo to replace him.
Radamel Falcao has just the one goal in the World Cup so far, and he will need to at least double this tally if Colombia are any hope of defeating England.
England Likely Starting XI
- Jordan Pickford
- Kyle Walker, John Stones, Harry Maguire
- Kieran Trippier, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Jordan Henderson, Ashley Young
- Raheem Sterling, Jesse Lingard
- Harry Kane
Although a 3-4-2-1 on paper, it’s more of an old-fashioned 5-3-2 with Trippier and Young utilised as high-pressing wing-backs. We’re predicting Dele Alli will be on the bench, while John Stones should recover from injury to play.
Jesse Lingard has been excellent in the tournament so far, and he provides plenty behind Harry Kane in terms of a second goal-scoring threat amid Alli’s absence.
Other Betting Opportunities
Remember that the head to head market is relevant for the result at the end of 90 minutes, and in the event of the match going to extra time or penalties the ‘draw’ option would be the winner.
If you think there is the possibility of extra time, the ‘will there be an overtime’ market from Sports Interaction is paying +188. Interestingly, this is roughly the same value that was on offer for France vs Argentina and Uruguay vs Portugal, although we are convinced this match will be decided in regulation time.
If you would rather take the option of picking which team will progress, Betway offer a ‘to qualify’ line, and are paying -200 for a England win regardless of whether penalties are required to separate the teams. Colombia are paying +160, and this gives you an indication of the expected gap between the teams.
Of course, there are plenty of other markets that could provide a decent outlay, and may be a safer bet than the head to head opportunities.
England are an excellent chance to score early in this match, having done so in two of their three matches so far. For that reason we have picked the England – England double in the ‘half-time/full-time’ market. You’ll get great odds of +262 here.
Harry Kane is a great chance to score in this match considering he has five in two starts. The Tottenham star is paying +112 in the ‘anytime goalscorer’ market. Due to the number of penalties that have been awarded at this tournament, it will be a smart bet to pick a penalty taker.
Picking the correct score is tough, although there’s plenty of reward for your risk. At +800, our 2-1 prediction is not one of the favourites, and will therefore offer plenty in return.
FIFA World Cup Knockout Stage Odds
***Round of 16
SATURDAY, JUNE 30
Match 50: France vs Argentina Odds (10 a.m. ET)
Match 49: Uruguay vs Portugal Odds (2 p.m. ET)
SUNDAY, JULY 1
Match 51: Spain vs Russia Odds (10 a.m. ET)
Match 52: Croatia vs Denmark Odds (2 p.m. ET)
MONDAY, JULY 2
Match 53: Brazil vs Mexico Odds (10 a.m. ET)
Match 54: Belgium vs Japan Odds (2 p.m. ET)
TUESDAY, JULY 3
Match 55: Sweden vs Switzerland Odds (10 a.m. ET)
Match 56: Colombia vs England Odds (2 p.m. ET)
FRIDAY, JULY 6
Match 57: Match 49 winner vs. Match 50 winner (10 a.m. ET)
Match 58: Match 53 winner vs. Match 54 winner (2 p.m. ET)
SATURDAY, JULY 7
Match 60: Match 55 winner vs. Match 66 winner (10 a.m. ET)
Match 59 Match 51 winner vs. Match 52 winner (2 p.m. ET)
TUESDAY, JULY 10
Match 61: Match 57 winner vs. Match 58 winner (2 p.m. ET)
WEDNESDAY, JULY 11
Match 62: Match 59 winner vs. Match 60 winner (2 p.m. ET)
SATURDAY, JULY 14
Match 63: Match 61 loser vs. Match 62 loser (10 a.m. ET)
SUNDAY, JULY 15
Match 64: Match 61 winner vs. Match 62 winner (11 a.m. ET)
=> World Cup Final Odds