Brazil vs Switzerland World Cup 2018
Switzerland and Brazil are the favourites to progress from Group E, which also contains Serbia and Costa Rica, so this match should in theory be a match between two high quality teams. In truth, Switzerland are a very good side and would go close to topping most groups at the World Cup, however they are no match for the might of Brazil. The South Americans aren’t just a high quality team, they are team who should win the WC.
It seems that the pain of the 7-1 capitulation against Germany in 2014 has long been forgotten, as Brazil have been almost flawless since. Yes they failed to win the Copa America during this time and yes they got off to the worst start in qualifying by losing their opening match, but since then the five-time champions have been professional and emphatic. They managed 12 wins and five draws to qualify with games to spare.
Switzerland too were sizzling hot during qualification, and would have qualified automatically from almost any other UEFA group. They won nine of their ten matches, falling second to Portugal on goal difference, before nervously but successfully getting past Northern Ireland in their play-off. Impressively, they kept eight clean sheets during their twelve matches, including one match against Cristiano Ronaldo’s side.
While we believe Switzerland will inevitably progress to the second round of the tournament ahead of Serbia and Costa Rica, which will make it three times in their last four attempts, there is no chance that they will get their campaign off to a winning start. Brazil are a powerhouse who have won their last nine consecutive opening matches at the World Cup, and will almost certainly get the win here.
Brazil are priced at -284 in the head to head market, which isn’t actually too bad considering we think they have a 100% chance of winning this match. If you think Switzerland can put on a defensive masterclass and hold on for a draw, you can get +388, while the unlikely Swiss win offers +747.
The most difficult question is regarding the scoreline. Previous trends suggest Brazil are likely to allow their opposition to score, although against Switzerland we expect a low scoring affair. We are going to go with a 1-0 victory to the favourites, to be scored in the second half of play.
Brazil vs Switzerland Preview
Brazil’s anticipated lineup will utilise a 4-1-2-3 formation, with Gabriel Jesus almost certain to lead the line alongside Philippe Coutinho, while Neymar looks to be right for a much needed return. Willian could be an option as well – his form has been sensational for Chelsea recently – while there are several other alternatives for manager Tite.
These options are great for Brazil’s chances, although it makes it more difficult for the betting community to place a bet on any of the player markets available. We expect Jesus to be Brazil’s top scorer at the tournament, but our advice is to wait for the final squad announcement before placing your bet, which is also a good tip for several of the lines available.
It isn’t much easier to pick goal-scorers in the Swiss lineup. While Xherdan Shaqiri can certainly weave his magic with the almost free-reign he has across the attacking third, the Swiss side has been lacking a genuine striker up front for some time. This is a shame considering the wealth of talent they possess on each flank (Ricardo Rodriguez and Stephan Lichtsteiner are the frontrunners for these positions).
The first goal scorer and any time goal scorer markets are probably best left to the Brazilian team, especially as we think Switzerland will surely setup very defensively in this match. Mind you, Brazil kept just one clean sheet in their 2014 campaign, and their tendency to employ a philosophy of ‘scoring more than their opponents’ always provides an opportunity for opposition goals.
Head to Head Alternatives
Brazil are the clear favourites in this matchup, so perhaps the only value in the head to head market can be realised through a parlay bet. By combining this match with other first round sure things such as France against Australia and Germany against Mexico, you will be able to maximise your potential winnings. Obviously the risk is heightened, but without risk there is no reward.
If you would like to stick to one bet, there’s plenty of value elsewhere. The first notable market is the half-time/full-time line, which allows you to pick who you think will be leading at the interval and who will win the match.
We have no doubt that Brazil will taste victory, although Switzerland’s stout defending may hold them off for a while and the South Americans did score almost two thirds of their goals in the second half during qualification. The ‘Draw – Brazil’ option is paying +294, which is incredibly good value, while the double of ‘Brazil – Brazil’ will fetch you -108.
If you agree with a half-time stalemate, you can also fetch odds of +133 for the ‘draw’ in the ‘1st half winner’ market.
We have already indicated that Brazil only kept a clean sheet once in seven matches at the 2014 World Cup. If you think Switzerland have a chance of scoring a goal in this match, the ‘which teams will score?’ market is offering ‘both teams’ at +109, while ‘Brazil only’ is priced at +104
Finally, the ‘correct score’ market is exceptionally tough and only for the brave in this match. Unlike many matchups, this game has the potential to go several ways. If Brazil don’t breakthrough early, our prediction of 1-0 along with a 2-0 scoreline is probably the pick, while if they do score early we could be looking at anything, and as the game opens up Switzerland too will have more chances to score.
For 1-0, you can get +472, which is the favoured scoreline, while 2-0 is close behind at +464. We also like the 3-1 (assuming Brazil scores in the first 20 mins), which is priced at +1100.
Group E Betting Odds