Brazil vs Mexico World Cup 2018
Mexico looked certain to make it seven consecutive Round of 16 appearances when they won their opening matches against Germany and Korea Republic, although a catastrophic 3-0 loss to Sweden in their final match could and should have seen the Central Americans going home. Germany needed just a 1-0 win over Korea to take their place in the knockout stage, but the Koreans saved the day and were emphatic in their 2-0 win.
While the Mexicans should have been on track to top Group F, they finished second as we originally predicted and will face the might of Brazil in the second round. This, in our opinion, makes us believe that Mexico will once again reach the Round of 16 and be knocked out at the same stage.
Brazil started slowly, although look to be warming into a shot at the 2018 World Cup title. The news that main rivals Germany have fallen at the first hurdle will boost morale in the camp, and their match against Serbia showed just how dangerous they can be. Serbia looked the goods in Group E and were a chance of progressing, but Brazil kept them quiet in their 2-0 win.
The South Americans have won three of four World Cup matches against Mexico, and although the fourth was the most recent (a 0-0 in last year’s tournament), it isn’t a great record. The fact that the Mexicans have been unable to win a Round of 16 match in their last six attempts also counts against them here, and it’s no surprise to see Brazil enter as favourites.
In the head to head market, you’ll get a handsome -190 if you bet on the Brazilians, which is almost a guaranteed win. Mexico were torn apart by Sweden in their final match, and Neymar, Coutinho and company will have no problem getting a win here. We’re predicting a 2-0 final score.
Brazil vs Mexico Preview
Brazil vs Mexico will kickoff at 10am ET on Monday, July 2 and will be played at Samara Arena in Samara.
Brazil Starting XI
- Fagner, Thiago Silva, Miranda, Marcelo
- Paulinho, Casemiro, Coutinho
- Willian, Gabriel Jesus, Neymar
This is a team that will go a long way in this tournament. Neymar is the star man, although his theatrics have been widely condemned.
Coutinho has excelled so far in this tournament, bagging two goals including a world class strike against Switzerland and a critical late strike against Costa Rica to save his side’s blushes.
Mexico Likely Starting XI
- Guillermo Ochoa
- Carlos Salcedo, Hugo Ayala, Edson Alvarez, Jesus Gallardo
- Hector Herrera, Andres Guardado, Miguel Layun
- Carlos Vela, Hirving Lozano
Erick Alvarez will likely come into the side at the expense of Hector Moreno, who is suspended for this match.
Carlos Vela was excellent in the final third for Mexico against Germany and Korea Republic, although he and Chicharito went missing against Sweden and will need to bounce back.
Other Betting Opportunities
Remember that the head to head market is relevant for the result at the end of 90 minutes, and in the event of the match going to extra time or penalties the ‘draw’ option would be the winner.
If you think there is the possibility of extra time, the ‘will there be an overtime’ market from Sports Interaction is paying +277. Mexico will certainly be playing for the game to go the distance, but we feel Brazil are too good and will win in regulation time.
If you would rather take the option of picking which team will progress, Betway offer a ‘to qualify’ line, and are paying -450 for a Brazil win regardless of whether penalties are required to separate the teams. Mexico are paying +650, and this gives you an indication of the expected gap between the teams.
Of course, there are plenty of other markets that could provide a decent outlay, and may be a safer bet than the head to head opportunities.
Brazil are a great chance to score early in this match, and for that reason we have picked the Brazil double in the ‘half-time/full-time’ market. You’ll get great odds of +125 for this market, or -101 for the ‘first half winner’ market
Gabriel Jesus was sensational for Manchester City this season, although he has yet to find the back of the net in this match. Expect him to finally break through in this one – the odds for him to score anytime in the match are +104.
Picking the correct score is tough, although there’s plenty of reward for your risk. At +484, our 2-0 prediction is one of the top choices, yet will still provide a decent outlay.
FIFA World Cup Knockout Stage Odds
***Round of 16
SATURDAY, JUNE 30
Match 50: France vs Argentina Odds (10 a.m. ET)
Match 49: Uruguay vs Portugal Odds (2 p.m. ET)
SUNDAY, JULY 1
Match 51: Spain vs Russia Odds (10 a.m. ET)
Match 52: Croatia vs Denmark Odds (2 p.m. ET)
MONDAY, JULY 2
Match 53: Brazil vs Mexico Odds (10 a.m. ET)
Match 54: Belgium vs Japan Odds (2 p.m. ET)
TUESDAY, JULY 3
Match 55: Sweden vs Switzerland Odds (10 a.m. ET)
Match 56: Colombia vs England Odds (2 p.m. ET)
FRIDAY, JULY 6
Match 57: Match 49 winner vs. Match 50 winner (10 a.m. ET)
Match 58: Match 53 winner vs. Match 54 winner (2 p.m. ET)
SATURDAY, JULY 7
Match 60: Match 55 winner vs. Match 66 winner (10 a.m. ET)
Match 59 Match 51 winner vs. Match 52 winner (2 p.m. ET)
TUESDAY, JULY 10
Match 61: Match 57 winner vs. Match 58 winner (2 p.m. ET)
WEDNESDAY, JULY 11
Match 62: Match 59 winner vs. Match 60 winner (2 p.m. ET)
SATURDAY, JULY 14
Match 63: Match 61 loser vs. Match 62 loser (10 a.m. ET)
SUNDAY, JULY 15
Match 64: Match 61 winner vs. Match 62 winner (11 a.m. ET)
=> World Cup Final Odds