Werdum vs Tybura Breakdown
The UFC's fifth visit to Sydney is already a doozie and it hasn't even happened yet! Kiwi KO artist Mark Hunt was pulled from the main event and former heavyweight champ Fabricio Werdum stepped in. Now, just days before the event and Werdum already finds himself in hot water following his boomerang attack against Colby Covington.
Yes, you read that right. He assaulted him with a BOOMERANG.
Werdum will have a hearing with authorities in the future and no official word has been released if it will affect his bout against #7-ranked Marcin Tybura. Boomerangs and trivialities aside, Werdum is coming in as a sizable -375 favourite against the Pole at +265.
This should be Werdum's fight to lose, proverbially speaking. He is better in every facet of MMA but Tybura is still a big boy who can throw heavy hands. Barring any more off-cage nonsense, Werdum should win this relatively smoothly.
Long gone are the days where it was easy to fade Werdum against strikers. Since training with Kings MMA, Werdum has leveled-up. This is the same guy who knocked out Mark Hunt with a flying knee and flying-kicked Travis Browne. Werdum gets wild because his gold medal-winning Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu makes him more lethal on the mat. That's why Werdum's 34.29 per cent takedown defense is misleading.
Tybura is primarily a striker but doesn't have the same creativity as Werdum. His head kick knockout of Viktor Pesta was scary but it stands as his only knockout win (the rest are T/KO). Tybura may get stiff in his stance because of the threat of the takedown from Werdum. But Werdum isn't really a good wrestler and only lands 31.96 per cent of his attempts.
Whether the fight stays standing or goes to the ground, it favours Werdum. He outstruck Hunt and Cain Velasquez so he should outstrike Tybura and he has his BJJ as a fallback option. Bet on Werdum at -375.
Betting Stats & Tidbits:
- -395: last line on Werdum lower than this fight (TKO over Mike Russow - UFC 147, 2012)
- 87.5%: Werdum's winning percentage as a favourite in eight UFC fights (7-1) since 2012
- -149: average line on Marcin Tybura since joining the UFC; his first time being an underdog
- 2-2: over-under record in Werdum's last four fights
- 3-1 over-under record in Tybura's last four fights
Best Bets for UFC Fight Night Sydney
Lock it Up! The lock of the night goes to Tim Means (-235) who is going to outstrike or outpoint Belal Muhammad (+180). Means is taking this fight on relatively short notice but has the size, reach, power, and durability advantage. At worse, Means wins a decision and at best he finishes.
Who's a Good Dog? Between Alex Chambers (+135) and Nadia Kassem (-175), this either ends with Chambers getting knocked out or Kassem getting subbed; at these odds, it's worth taking a shot that the latter happens. Chambers is coming off a two-year layoff but Kassem is an inexperienced newcomer.
Just Say No: to Will Brooks (-470) versus Nik Lentz (+320). Even if this is the type of fight Brooks should win, he is unbettable at that price. He might make a good parlay piece but proceed cautiously.
Main Card (TSN 5, 10 PM ET)
- Heavyweight (265 lbs): #2 Fabricio Werdum (-375) vs #7 Marcin Tybura (+265)
- Women's Flyweight (125 lbs): Bec Rawlings (-165) vs Jessica-Rose Clark (+130)
- Welterweight (170 lbs): Tim Means (-235) vs Belal Muhammad (+180)
- Welterweight (170 lbs): Jake Matthews (-150) vs Bojan Velickovic (+120)
- Middleweight (185 lbs): Elias Theodorou (-290) vs Dan Kelly (+210)
- Featherweight (145 lbs): Alex Volkanovski (-700) vs Shane Young (+450)
Preliminary Card (Fight Network, 8 PM ET)
- Flyweight (125 lbs): Ryan Benoit (-280) vs Ashkan Mokhtarian (+205)
- Lightweight (155 lbs): Nik Lentz (+320) vs Will Brooks (-470)
- Heavyweight (265 lbs): Rashad Coulter (+145) vs Tai Tuivasa (-185)
- Lightweight (155 lbs): Damien Brown (+110) vs Frank Camacho (-140)
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass, 6:30 PM ET)
- Women's Strawweight (115 lbs): Alex Chambers (+135) vs Nadia Kassem (-175)
- Flyweight (125 lbs): Jenel Lausa (+290) vs Eric Shelton (-420)
- Heavyweight (265 lbs): Anthony Hamilton (-175) vs Adam Wieczorek (+135)
*Note: all betting odds via SportsInteraction
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