UFC Fight Pass Underdog Victories Trending Down
In just over two years, the number of underdog victories in UFC Fight Pass cards has decreased gradually. Using basic statistics compiled beginning UFC Fight Night 69 on June 20, 2015, the first Fight Pass card since the implementation of USADA, underdog victories have trended down from 35.89 per cent in 2015 to 22.58 per cent in 2016 and to 19.56 per cent in 2017 as of today.
The average underdog winner size fluctuated at +251 in 2015 to +179 in 2016 and +227 this 2017. However, if you remove the +431 winner this year, it drops to +147, which is in line with the constant decline of overall dog win percentage.
The straightforward conclusion is that oddsmakers are finally catching up with the nature of the sport and are lining fights more conservatively now.
This definitely dispels the myth that lesser-known UFC cards are good for underdogs because oddsmakers tend to overlook these events. If anything, heavy chalk is less of a risk in Fight Pass cards now. In the last five Fight Pass events, only one event had more than two underdogs winning. The last Fight Pass event in 2016 in Albany became one of the rare UFC events where all underdogs lost.
In the last seven Fight Pass cards, only two events had an underdog bigger than +200 walk away with a victory. In comparison, six of the seven events before that had at least one dog over +200 pull off an upset. Cards in foreign countries do yield more upsets but not too significantly. Fight Pass events on American soil have yielded fewer upsets (25.93 per cent) than those in foreign countries (33.71 per cent).
We'll compile more data and analyse them but on the surface level, bookies are getting better at their jobs and bettors who run heavy chalk should be pleased to know that the risks of losing on a big favourite are incrementally smaller these days.
UFC Shanghai: Underdogs to Watch Out For
There will be a total of 12 underdogs in 12 fights in the UFC's debut in mainland China led by the main eventer himself, former UFC middleweight champion Michael Bisping. The Count is lined at +200 at SportsInteraction and will be up against 9th-ranked contender Kelvin Gastelum, a former welterweight.
Bisping will be a live dog although the short turnaround makes him iffy especially against a pressure-oriented opponent like Gastelum. Still, Bisping became 2016's most profitable underdog when he beat Anderson Silva and Luke Rockhold as a +240 and +590 underdog, respectively.
Never count the Count out.
The biggest underdog on the card will be newcomer Sheymon Moraes at +375 taking on Zabit Magomedsharipov (-560). Moraes is a highly-touted featherweight prospect though Magomedsharipov has the makings of a generational talent. Still, almost 4-1 for a dangerous prospect seems too generous.
Kailin Curran (+120) will likewise be an interesting underdog if she goes higher. Despite a 1-5 UFC record, Curran is going up against newcomer Yan Xiaonan (-150) who is tough and aggressive but raw.
Bet on UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Gastelum
UFC Shanghai debuts bright and early on Saturday, November 25 at 3:45 AM ET. MMA fans can sign up for a promotional bonus while also checking other online sportsbooks to find the best odds as each book has its own pros and cons.
Betting fighters straight-up is far from the only option. Betting the over/under on round totals is also a popular bet and prop betting, side bets that could have bigger payouts depending on the added stipulations, are just as big here as in other sports like the NFL.
Bookies may be catching up to predicting the UFC but that doesn't mean upsets never happen anymore as UFC 217 proved. Only way to cash on that gutsy underdog pick is by signing up and playing.
Category : UFC News
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